10/05/2010 大盘回顾 （Maintain Intermediate-term Bearish View）

Cobra

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT Long-term 2 of 2 are BUY   Intermediate 3 of 3 are BUY 4 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode. Short-term Model is BUY 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL The trend is up and I hold partial long position overnight. GANN DAY MOON:SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION 10/10-10/11 10/07 : 10/08 09/28 Next pivot date: 09/28 – 10/05, 10/11

BULLISH 0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: Head and Shoulders Bottom breakout, target 1242. 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months. 10/01 Market Recap: Positive September plus mid-term election means 11%+ up to year end. BEARISH *1.0.6 SPY Unfilled Gaps: 19 unfilled gaps, the max is 19. 09/23 Market Recap: SPX 3 down days in a row means 79% chances to close below 09/23 close in 10 days. 09/27 Market Recap: AAPL is now too stretched. 10/01 Market Recap: AAII bull ratio (4-week average) too bullish. 10/01 Market Recap: Commercial (smart money) short Nasdaq 100 heavily according to COT Report.

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU Non-Stop 09/07 L N/A Partial profits on 09/24. ST Model 09/24 L *breakeven *Adjust stop loss.

 

SHORT-TERM: BULLISH, BUT WILL MAINTAIN INTERMEDIATE-TERM BEARISH VIEW

 

今天该说的在After Bell Quick Summary里都已经说，由于market选择了decisively breakout of an consolidation area on the upside，所以短期bullish，熊熊只能等下一个consolidation area才可能有反击的机会。不过，intermediate-term，我还是维持bearish view，主要理由除了10/01 Market Recap里提到的Commercial historical high Nasdaq 100 short positions以外，统计上，本周开始的Earning Season一般会underperform，因为off-season涨了很多。下面的图应该很清楚的显示了现在和04/01/2010 breakout的相似性，因此最坏的情况，熊熊要做好another 16 trading day up swing的准备。

 

 

至于这another 16 trading days up swing的price and time target，先看明天是否有follow-through吧，否则今天泡沫横飞的一大堆，明天reversal of reversal of reversal，我岂不是很没有面子？Overall，明天只要不大跌，我就会认为今天的breakout有效，而我在10/01 Market Recap提到的pivot date around 10/05，则不成立的可能性很大，并且下一个pivot date around 10/11还得wait and see。

 

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: SEEMS 11%+ RISE GUARANTEED BEFORE YEAR END, I’M SKEPTICAL HOWEVER

See 10/01 Market Recap for details.

 

SEASONALITY: OCTOBER IS BULLISH

See 10/01 Market Recap for October Seasonality chart.

 

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

	TREND	COMMENT
QQQQ	*UP	4.1.1 Nasdaq 100 Index (Weekly): NDX to SPX ratio too high.
IWM	*UP
CHINA
EMERGING	UP	4.1.6 iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM Weekly): EEM to SPX ratio too high.
CANADA	*UP	*TOADV MA(10) too high and has negative divergence.
BOND	*DOWN
EURO	UP
GOLD	UP
GDX	*UP	4.3.1 Market Vectors Gold Miners (GDX Weekly): GDX to SPX ratio too high.
OIL	UP
ENERGY	*UP
FINANCIALS	*UP	4.4.2 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF Weekly): Head and Shoulders Top in the forming?
REITS	UP	4.4.3 Real Estate iShares (IYR Weekly): Home builder is lagging.
MATERIALS	*UP

1. Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
2. Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no specific buy/sell signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
3. * = New update.
4. Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
5. LA = Lateral Trend.

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