09/24/2010 大盘回顾 （Bears Not Dead Yet）

Cobra

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT Long-term 2 of 2 are BUY   Intermediate 3 of 3 are BUY 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode. Short-term Model is BUY 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL The trend is up but I hold no long position over weekend. GANN DAY MOON/SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION 9/23,10/10-10/11 09/23 / 09/23 Week of 09/24, 09/28 Next pivot date: 09/21 – 09/23, 09/28 – 10/01

BULLISH 09/17 Market Recap: Down 3 weeks then up 3 weeks, the 8th and 9th week is statistically bullish. 0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: Head and Shoulders Bottom breakout, target 1242. BEARISH *1.0.6 SPY Unfilled Gaps: 18 unfilled gaps, the max was 18. 09/23 Market Recap: AAII is way too bullish. 09/23 Market Recap: SPX 3 consecutive down days means more pullback? *6.1.9a Extreme ISEE Index Readings Watch: ISEE Indices & ETFs Only Index > 100, pullback? *6.5.2b Month Day Seasonality Watch and 6.5.2c Week Seasonality Watch: Bearish next week.

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU Non-Stop 09/07 L N/A *Partial profits on 09/24. ST Model *09/24 L 1.9*ATR(10)

 

SHORT-TERM: BULLISH BUT STILL EARLY TO DECLARE BEARS DEAD

 

还是老话，只要我们生活在地球上，那么周五的price action是一天wonder的可能性不大，因为a forward accelerating car has to be slow down first before it could be reversed，所以很大可能中期2nd or 3rd (if you count 08/27 to 09/03 as the first leg up) leg up已经开始了。不过09/23 Market Recap中总结的短期bad signs依然很多，外加下周seasonality not bull friendly (see seasonality session below)，因此也先别急着declare bears dead，看看下周，熊熊是否反攻再说吧。

 

Chart pattern看起来真的是Head and Shoulders Bottom breakout then back test neckline，这样，只要09/23 low at 1122不破，这个Head and Shoulders Bottom就是as real as it gets，理论target是1242，有74%的机会达到。熊熊的机会是趁着下周seasonality bear friendly来个经典的A = C，在SPX 1158附近，cycle turn date 09/28 to 10/01间发生反转。

 

 

还记得09/23 Market Recap中提到的pullback usually begins with 3 consecutive down days吧？下面的图是熊熊的另一个希望，要小心下周小幅盘整。换句说，下周大涨特涨的话，熊熊基本就可以死心了。

 

 

由于SPX在09/21 to 09/23发生了3天pullback，因此短期pullback的forecast算是partially fulfilled，下面的表格算是总结一下熊熊还剩下多少子弹。前面说了，熊熊下周还是有反攻的可能性的，不管你是牛还是熊，知己知彼还是很重要的。

BAD SIGNS	RESULT
09/21 to 09/23 pivot date in 09/17 Market Recap	Fulfilled
6.4.3a SPY Bearish Reversal Day Watch on 09/21	Fulfilled
VIX leads SPX mentioned in 09/21 Market Recap	Fulfilled
6.5.1a SPX and FOMC, red FOMC followed by a red day	Fulfilled
6.3.1b Major Accumulation Day Watch, 2 consecutive red days after MAD	Fulfilled
1.1.1 PowerShares QQQ Trust (QQQQ Daily), 2 hollow red bars	Not Confirmed
1.0.6 SPY Unfilled Gaps, 18 unfilled gaps
AAII is too bullish in 09/23 Market Recap
SPX down 3 consecutive days means more pullbacks in 09/23 Market Recap
6.5.2b Month Day Seasonality Watch, 6.5.2c Week Seasonality Watch, bearish next week
6.1.9a Extreme ISEE Index Readings Watch, ISEE Indices & ETFs Only Index > 100

 

有读者问，周五SPX上涨大于2%，但却不是Major Accumulation Day，这个意味着什么？下面是back test result, since year 2000。我没看到什么edge，除了sell at Monday open （如果高开最好，那是第19个unfilled gap了，不补的话）cover before close有65%的机会以外。

 

 

当然由于2008年的volatility比较大，所以反弹2%却不是Major Accumulation Day的情况很多，因此可能影响统计结果，因此下面的图是自2009年三月以来的情况，看起来好像第二天跌的居多。

 

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: STATISTICALLY BULLISH FOR THE NEXT WEEK

 

We could see 2 to 3 legs up while now is the 2nd leg up. See 09/17 Market Recap for the back test。

 

下面是对09/17 Market Recap back test的update，down 3 consecutive weeks then up 4 consecutive weeks, buy at Friday’s close sell 1, 2, 3, 4 weeks later，下周，下下周，下下下周都不错。

 

 

SEASONALITY: LAST TRADING WEEK OF MONTH WAS GENERALLY BEARISH

 

According to Stock Trader’s Almanac:

1. Last day of Q3, Dow down 8 of last 12, massive 4.7% rally in 2008.
2. First trading day in October, NASDAQ up 5 of last 7.

6.5.2c Week Seasonality Watch, last trading week of every month since August 2009 was generally bearish.

 

 

6.5.2b Month Day Seasonality Watch, the last 2 trading days of every month since August 2009 were generally bearish.

 

 

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

	TREND	COMMENT
QQQQ	*UP	4.1.1 Nasdaq 100 Index (Weekly): NDX to SPX ratio too high.
IWM	*UP	*Morning Star?
CHINA
EMERGING	*UP	4.1.6 iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM Weekly): EEM to SPX ratio too high.
CANADA	*UP	TOADV MA(10) too high, pullback? *Morning Doji Star, more rebound?
BOND	*DOWN	*4.2.0 20 Year Treasury Bond Fund iShares (TLT Weekly): Morning Doji Star?
EURO	UP
GOLD	UP	*Black Bar.
GDX	LA	4.3.1 Market Vectors Gold Miners (GDX Weekly): GDX to SPX ratio too high and Bearish Engulfing. *3.2.1 Market Vectors Gold Miners (GDX Daily): Bearish Engulfing?
OIL	*UP	Bullish reversal bar, rebound?
ENERGY	*UP	*Morning Star?
FINANCIALS	*UP	4.4.2 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF Weekly): Head and Shoulders Top in the forming?
REITS	*UP	4.4.3 Real Estate iShares (IYR Weekly): Home builder is lagging.
MATERIALS	*UP

1. Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
2. Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no specific buy/sell signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
3. * = New update.
4. Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
5. LA = Lateral Trend.

lionking819

thanks cobra laoda

lionking819

thanks cobra laoda

windflower

ding

oldfox

windflower

Ding again

darren168

Ding

happyface

thanks

ut1984

George25

acoust

wnd4

thanks

sunnysunny

Ave

MtlJaysFan

Thanks

ranchgirl

babyruth

wower

Thanks!

windy

thanks

yaobooyao

老蛇也在长考。

看来大盘不好走啊。