有能力绝不把自己的命运交给第三方

alex68

上次， Oracle Sue Google 侵犯 Java 版权，当时就感慨有能力绝对不把自己的命运交给第三方。那些整天叫嚣着Nokia 使用Android 或者 Win7 Phone 的人有点脑筋就该明白，以诺基亚的研发实力, 目前状况和历史辉煌，怎么可能的事情呢。退一步，不可能使用Google 说穿就是Google 根本不是什么雷锋，它的所谓Free Source TERM 根本就是SCREWED， 因为Windows  License 问题， Nokia也不会考虑的。

三星自己的操作系统没有成熟以前，估计还会暂时白吃一段时间。 这里面真正可怜的就是MOTOROLA，爱立信索尼，HTC 了。 等着瞧吧，事物发展规律一向是乐极生悲，Android 更热闹的事情还在后面。

http://www.engadget.com/2010/09/ ... ocation-service-de/

Skyhook: Google forced Motorola to drop our location service, delay the Droid X

We figured Skyhook's business interference and patent infringement lawsuits against Google would turn up some dirt, and we didn't have long to wait: the location-services company's complaint flatly alleges that Google's Andy Rubin ordered Motorola's Sanjay Jha to "stop ship" on the Droid X because it used Skyhook's XPS positioning system instead of Google Location Services, a tiff that ultimately delayed the phone's release while Moto reworked the software and dropped Skyhook entirely. Following that, Skyhook claims that Google then went after an unidentified "Company X" (likely Samsung) and forced it to drop XPS as well -- which would certainly explain why Samsung's Galaxy S phones have WiFi positioning turned off by default, unlike every other Android phone. Ouch.

If you're thinking that makes no sense because Android is "open," well, you might have another think coming -- Skyhook claims that Google's decisions to allow access to Android Market and its branded apps are an entirely subjective ruse based on something called the Compliance Definition Document, which can be "arbitrarily" interpreted any way Google wants with no recourse. Skyhook says that Google has now told Android OEMs that they're required to use Google Location Services, preventing Skyhook from fulfilling its contracts and costing the company millions in expected royalties.

Now, this is Skyhook's side of the story and we're sure Google will make a persuasive argument of its own, but let's just back up for a moment here and point out the obvious: Google's never, ever come out and clearly said what's required for devices to gain access to Android Market and the branded apps like Gmail -- even though we've been directly asking about those requirements since Android first launched. Remember when Andy Rubin told us that there would be full-fledged "Google Experience" phones with no carrier or handset manufacturer limitations? Or when we were told that phones with skins like HTC Sense or additional features like Exchange integration wouldn't have Google branding? And then all of that turned out to be a lie? Yes, Android might be "open" in the sense that the source code is available, but there's no doubt Google's wielded incredible power over the platform by restricting access to Market and its own apps -- power that hasn't been used to prevent carrier-mandated bloatware or poorly-done manufacturer skinning, but has instead apparently been used to block legitimate competitors like Skyhook from doing business. We're dying to hear Google's side of this story and fill in some of the gaps -- and you can bet we're digging as hard as we can for more info. Stay tuned, kids.

alex68

Google touted "Google does no evil".  Jobs responded "Bullshit".

One is 250g and another one is 400g. hehe

jamesmith

alex68

回复 3# jamesmith

这个应该是包括了Smartphone和 feature phone 的所有PHONE MARKET Share。 韩国三星和LG FEATURE PHONE 很多的，不过，LG 亏损，三星不怎么赚钱。

southware

谢谢

lwjnbtx

Agree!

linday

cdmawcl

Alex:

do you work for Nokia? Yes, ideally, you do not want to count on others if you are really capable, i.e., you want to master the entire chain of ecosystem, from chip-->device-->carrier. Unfortunately, so far, apple is the only unique company which can get close to that position and that's why it's so profitable (they HAVE to keep on top-of-edge innovation for keeping such position though). Even almighty Google is not able to do so.

Smart phone is going to enjoy the booming growth by 2015 (at least), it's going to be a huge market. Nokia was leading in this area, unfortunately, due to the poor decision of its previous CEO, such as multiple vendors (for chip provider), full control of Symbian, sticking to keypad solution, etc. It is losing big time. Yes, it still has largest market share, mainly because of European and China market. But it is becoming more and more difficult for them to keep sticking factors due to various competition from both low end side and high end side. They have been arrogant and think they are the real player who know how to play the game, now reality tells it is wrong. In this market, the degradation speed of the business could be a big surprise..

By going ally with Intel, both of them might think of repeating the WINTEL again in mobile world. I highly doubt that is even possible. From Nokia perspective, to keep both Symbian line and Meego line alive is simply not going to work. You can make devices with different OSes and that's perfectly OK, but it does not make sense to keep the ownership of 2 DIFFERENT OSes as your core strategy. Just think about like this

does MSFT develop other OSes as their key strategy?
does TI/Qualcomm/BRCM develop processor architecture other than ARM and claim it as their winning factor?
does Verizon/ATT offer both CDMA and GSM as their core network?

alex68

Alex:

do you work for Nokia? Yes, ideally, you do not want to count on others if you are really  ...
cdmawcl 发表于 2010-9-18 16:03

A few facts to the most relevant topics for the time being. More critical thoughts and discussion may be later.

I don\t work for Nokia. Yes, I am pro-Nokia, but for reasons not baselessly.

Nokia doesn\t make chips and its main business covers 3, device (mainly mobile phones), carrier network (NSN, becoming top 2 carrier suppler this year), navigation (NavTek coving about 70 countries).

Nokia device business coverage is over 100 countries and it has a strong presence in emerging countries ie china, india etc where average income is rather low and the majority of people can not afford expensive consumption. Nokia's strategy is to address different need for different people...

Now I have a critical question to ask "why mobile  (both feature and smart phone) times moves much faster than PC times of Inte/MS and why PC are losing ground?".  One of my answers is the phones are made affordable and phones are trending pc-powered...  But how? Think about it.

In PC times, cheap soluation was compatible no-name pc + piracy of software in emerging markets. What we are seeing  in current evolving mobile times is clone phones of big names in eg china and india. Are we going to see the same copy of PC? Likely not,but why not maybe. But I don't know, I am watching and learning the industry.

alex68

To my knowledge, Verizon does offer both CDMA (40%?) and GSM networks

When you give the example of ARM chip-makers, why do you leave the giant chip maker Intel in the dark? In my opinion, NOKIA is more comparable with Intel instead of Brodcom and Qualomm etc, in term of revenue, market cap, market share and enterprise scale ...

If someone says Intel can because it is an american name and it is in silicon valley, I have nothing to comment, but well, are not MOT and Lucent etc?

leftright

thanks

graceabrams

liblib123

To my knowledge, Verizon does offer both CDMA (40%?) and GSM networks

When you give the example o ...
alex68 发表于 2010-9-18 16:47

In mobile segment, qualcomm is much more successful than intel, it is clear no1 in mobile.

alex68

In mobile segment, qualcomm is much more successful than intel, it is clear no1 in mobile.
liblib123 发表于 2010-9-19 07:44

yeah, in last post I was supposed to discuss if BIG GUYS like Nokia can have multiple core business, more precisely, multi-tech cores (in Nokia case, it is multiple os for its phones). I used the example of Intel for Nokia. I think it is more appropriate than comparing Nokia with MS, one of the reasons is Nokia is hardware manufacture first。

Because of low cost and power-efficient, RISC-based ARM chips have been dominating the embedded appliance market. Intel had almost zero record in this field. But now mobile industry becomes one of the most lucrative business. Because of user experience eg GUI and more applications running on mobile devices,  it also requires faster  CPU which Intel's chips are excel at. The key for Intel to succeed in mobile industry is power management. I suggest you look for the keyword "Moorestown" to learn about it.  This chip-arch is very promising. Nokia future top-end (not high-end) will be based on this chip + Meego. I expect to see Intel phone by Nokia by the end of next year or a bit later.  MeeGo has been chosen as the reference platform  for In-Vehicle Infotainment (IVI).

In foreseeable near future, Intel will be a big player in embedded appliance including mobile market.

http://qt.nokia.com/about/news/g ... hicle-infotainment/
http://www.genivi.org/
You can also google to learn what it means for Inter/Nokia play in car industry. There are a few analysis papers on the net.

MeeGo inCar System Demo from  MeeGo Seminar Summer 2010 Tokyo
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UTrFO4mVXbc

alex68

I have closely watched the Meego development almost daily. The developers committing to the source are from all over the world and different industries.

alex68

Quickly googled 2009 revenues , may  not be accurate.

Qualcomm 10b usd
Intel          35  usd
Nokia        >40 EURO

Nokia's business is much bigger than Qualcomm etc which are major ARM-chip makers.

Statistics from Ovi store

Global reach: more than 190 countries, available in 30 languages
Local relevance: content from over 90 countries
Adaptable: 120 device models offer Ovi Store content
Convenient: payment options include mobile billing with 91 operators in 27 countries and credit card billing in more than 170 countries

mengtt

liblib123

What I know is next Nokia smartphone (N9?) will be based on ST-Ericsson platform U8500 (ST-Ericsson announced design win with Nokia), not Moorestown or any other intel chips

alex68

回复 18# liblib123


The first N9 product will be built on ARM chip because Intel chip is not ready as I said. Besides it will take roughly 2 years at least for new products ready after a new chip arch is available. So U8500 (Cortex A9) is not likely either.  Currently there are many speculations, but I think most likely it is the the same chip series, ARM Cortex A8, that N900 used.  One evidence is Nokia recently has provided some Meego image for N900.  It would double the effort of porting/dev work, if N9 doesn't use Cortex A8 and "everyone" knows N900 was 4 step of out 5 for this Nseries product and Nokia doesn't have obligation to support N900 after all.  But Nokia N9 will use a faster A8 plus a Broadcom GPU that N8 uses.

However,  A9 is highly possible for N9 in the future, but most likely S4 devices. Intel will be a player for sure. It is a mater of time when manufactures will be able to make the products ready (see http://www.intel.com/pressroom/a ... 10/20100504comp.htm).  I see no way Nokia would jump to Qualcomm Snapdragon at all.

cdmawcl

does not look like you root deeper in the mobile area. if u want to invest in nokia, that's fine. but if you really want to discuss deeper in this area, need to do more study to understand

1. Verizon Vs Vodafone
2. CPU Vs GPU Vs SoC
3. ARM Vs X86 Vs Xscale
4. Market capital Vs Market share
5. what is ecosystem and how that impacts players

BTW, Nokia will try out different chips but chip vendors (big ones) already got bored with their "multi-vendors" strategy, this strategy brought damage to both sides and Nokia is seeing serious consequence of that now. They are not mobile world almighty as they used to think.

Mooretown is better than atom on PM side, but it just brings it into the same zone as other ARM competitor in this arena, still at least 3x worse. Yes, Intel probably will get equal or even advanced than ARM solution in terms of both performance and power with their process node advantage and big cash pool. But by that timeframe, probably whole ecosystem is already saturated with ARM solutions.