|
|
楼主 |
发表于 2010-9-14 06:44 PM
|
显示全部楼层
RIM results will be test of resilience (zhuan)
Jameson Berkow, Financial Post · Tuesday, Sept. 14, 2010
It has been a rough few months for Canada’s smartphone maker.
Since late June 24, when it released disappointing first-quarter results, Research In Motion Ltd. (RIM/TSX) has also witnessed: a dramatic decline in its North American market share to smartphone makers running Google Inc.’s Android software; a close brush with banishment from several major Asian and Middle Eastern markets; a largely underwhelming debut of the BlackBerry Torch; and an increasing risk of losing its long-held dominance in the enterprise market. In that time, its shares on the Toronto Stock Exchange have fallen 24%, closing Tuesday at $46.39.
When the Waterloo, Ont.-based company releases its second-quarter earnings Thursday after markets close, it will have to answer to investors about all of that. And, more important, what it will do to reverse its misfortunes.
“This quarter is going to be the first real test for RIM,” said Sameet Kanade, analyst with Northern Securities Inc. in Toronto. “People are expecting between 50% and 60% growth in international markets and I think this might be the first quarter where you actually see RIM come maybe at or lower than the consensus.”
Mr. Kanade considers himself “one of the few guys on the Street in Canada who’s been a bear on RIM,” and has been advising his clients to “look forward to some disappointing numbers” Thursday. His pessimism is certainly not the standard among Canada’s tech market watchers.
“There is no doubt RIM faces stiff competition, but we continue to point out that the company has more than sufficient assets to compete effectively,” Gus Papageorgiou of Scotia Capital, also Toronto-based, said in a note to clients on Monday.
“RIM shares are trading at absurdly inexpensive levels, and we believe this company will continue to see robust growth and profitability for the foreseeable future.”
Go south of the border and the expectations generally turn more sour.
Jim Suva of Citigroup Global Markets in New York intends to maintain the same “sell” rating for RIM stock going into tomorrow’s announcement that he has held since 2009, noting the BlackBerry accounts for 34% of the North American market share today, compared with 53% one year ago. He also points to large enterprise customers, including investment bank JPMorgan Chase, that are switching to a bring-your-own-device strategy among its employees as evidence of RIM’s declining dominance among business customers.
Mr. Papageorgiou dismisses both concerns, pointing to various indicators that suggest a “limited appetite” for non-BlackBerry solutions to enter the enterprise market. On RIM’s lost market share in North America, he argues international market gains have “almost entirely offset that.”
Mr. Kanade has far less confidence in the potential for BlackBerry to find a boon abroad.
“We all speak to distributors in India and China and Europe and South America and all of them are saying the same things. They say the BlackBerry is good, but it is a secondary device,” he said, noting iPhones, Android-based smartphones and Nokia phones are still the dominant devices in emerging markets.
Despite the polarizing viewpoints, the vast majority of analysts expect RIM to meet its estimates of about $4.5-billion in sales and earnings per share of $1.36 and to forecast modest growth for the next quarter.
jberkow@nationalpost.com |
|
狗仔卡
发表于 2010-9-13 09:27 PM
提升卡
置顶卡
沉默卡
喧嚣卡
变色卡
发表于 2010-9-13 09:31 PM
