08/18/2010 大盘回顾 （CPCI Little High）

Cobra

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT Long-term 1 of 2 are SELL   Sell signal to be confirmed. Intermediate 2 of 3 are BUY 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in BUY mode; Non-Stop in SELL mode. Short-term Model is BUY 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL Trend is up but I hold no position overnight. GANN DAY MOON/SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION 8/26 08/24 / 08/23 8/23 Next pivot date: 08/23 – 08/26

BULLISH BEARISH 0.2.3 NYSE McClellan Oscillator: Hindenburg Omen? So market will crash? T2105 too high. 0.2.5 NYSE Total Volume: too low, still at top? *0.2.2 Extreme Put Call Ratio Watch: CPCI a little high.

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU Non-Stop 08/16 S N/A For general direction guide only. ST Model 08/17 L 1.9*ATR(10)

*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The main purpose of this report is to provide information so contradictory signals are always presented.

SEASONALITY: MONDAY AND FRIDAY ARE BULLLISH

See 08/13 Market Recap for more details.

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: BEARISH BIASED

1. The correction since 04/26 isn’t over. See 07/30 Market Recap for more details.
2. The 07/01 low may be tested. See 08/13 Market Recap for more details.

SHORT-TERM: REBOUND TARGET 1106 TO 1110, COULD LAST TO 08/23

Maintain the price and time target mentioned in 08/17 Market Recap.

 

今天要说的，其实在After Bell Quick Summary里已经说了，今天最特别的地方就是有big guy买了很大很大的index put，从而造成CPCI (CBOE Index Put/Call Ratio)很高，而ISEE Indices & ETFs Only Index很低。那么这种情况对大盘会有什么影响呢？这里，我不关心why or how，我只看图。从下面两幅图看，至少看起来前景不妙，虽然并不意味着今天就是顶，对吧？此外，不要忘了，table above里的所有bearish signs still valid。所以，我还是认为这一轮反弹走不远。

 

 

下面的图看起来对牛牛有利，是不是意味着大盘还有上升的空间？我不sure, for your info only.

 

3.0.0 20 Year Treasury Bond Fund iShares (TLT Daily)，RSI and MACD below的negative divergence很明显，外加反转意向很强的black bar，因此很可能bond要pullback，这意味着stock market会继续反弹。

 

 

3.3.0 United States Oil Fund, LP (USO Daily)，3 reversal like bars in a row，油可能反弹，这对stock market也是好的。

 

 

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

	TREND	COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided.
QQQQ	UP
IWM	UP
CHINA	UP
EMERGING	UP	4.1.6 iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM Weekly): EEM to SPX ratio too high.
EUROPEAN	UP
CANADA	UP
BOND	UP
EURO	UP
GOLD	UP
GDX	UP
OIL	UP	*2 reversal like bars in a row, so rebound?
ENERGY	UP
FINANCIALS	UP
REITS	UP	4.4.3 Real Estate iShares (IYR Weekly): Home builder is lagging, be careful.
MATERIALS	UP

X中国陆军

leftright

thanks

t-k

schmd2000

dreampen

IMeMyself

thanks

windy

thanks  

happyface

thanks a lot

acoust

First page!

impresario100

福多多

sooners

回复 1# Cobra


   

lwjnbtx

First page...

terranmn

lehldk

thanks, where is the top? tomorrow will know

southware

首页，谢班长分享

Zephyr

brcm

今天最特别的地方就是有big guy买了很大很大的index put===>我看不大懂，你那个table。。大户买的是几月的index put？

lilyxi

thx, 1 floor?