08/17/2010 大盘回顾 （Could See More Rebound）

Cobra

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT Long-term 1 of 2 are SELL   Sell signal to be confirmed. Intermediate 2 of 3 are BUY 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in BUY mode; Non-Stop in SELL mode. Short-term Model is BUY 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL Trend is up but I hold no position overnight. GANN DAY MOON/SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION 8/26 08/24 / 08/23 8/23 Next pivot date: 08/23 – 08/26

BULLISH BEARISH 0.2.3 NYSE McClellan Oscillator: Hindenburg Omen? So market will crash? T2105 too high. 0.2.5 NYSE Total Volume: too low, still at top?

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU Non-Stop 08/16 S N/A For general direction guide only. ST Model *08/17 L 1.9*ATR(10) *Long position initiated on 08/17.

*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The main purpose of this report is to provide information so contradictory signals are always presented.

SEASONALITY: MONDAY AND FRIDAY ARE BULLLISH

See 08/13 Market Recap for more details.

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: BEARISH BIASED

1. The correction since 04/26 isn’t over. See 07/30 Market Recap for more details.
2. The 07/01 low may be tested. See 08/13 Market Recap for more details.

SHORT-TERM: REBOUND TARGET 1106 TO 1110, COULD LAST TO 08/23

 

我在08/11 Market Recap里提到了，由于6.3.2c Major Distribution Day Watch，NYDNV:NYUPV > 35，因此在2到4天内会有tradable bottom。当时我估计，the market bottom around 08/17 then rebound to 08/23。从今天market的情况看，这个tradable bottom可能已经于08/16 in了，那么现在的问题是，how far can the rebound go？从下面的图看，最近8次，NYDNV:NYUPV > 35，有2次是the bottom，其余6次则是partial retracement。

 

 

由于既使是the bottom，market也至少先要经过Fib retracement的区域，因此第一步我们只要研究，过去几次partial retracement至少是到什么时候结束的就可以据此推测，this time, the mini mini how far the rebound can go, agree？

 

那么下面是几次partial retracement的放大图。可以看到，基本上都retrace到Fib 61.8%的位置，对吧？

 

 

好了，我们再换一个角度看看how far rebound can go。从下面的图，可以看到the Fib 61.8% retracement at 1106，正好也是multiple Fib confluences area，所以符合上面根据过去历史的推测。时间上讲，自04/26以来的rebound，最短最短也是5 trading day，这样，如果从今天算起，反弹5天的话，那就是08/23，这个正好也是我在08/13 Market Recap里提到的important pivot date。

 

 

结论，我认为the rebound may have further to go, the initial price target could be around 1106 to 1110 area, the rebound could last to 08/23。不过由于我在08/16 Market Recap里提到的6.2.3 VIX:VXV Trading Signals, 0.2.5 NYSE Total Volume and T2105依然有效，因此我暂时维持rebound wouldn’t go too far的结论。

 

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

	TREND	COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided.
QQQQ	UP
IWM	UP
CHINA	UP
EMERGING	UP	4.1.6 iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM Weekly): EEM to SPX ratio too high.
EUROPEAN	UP
CANADA	UP
BOND	UP
EURO	UP
GOLD	UP
GDX	*UP
OIL	UP
ENERGY	UP
FINANCIALS	UP
REITS	UP	4.4.3 Real Estate iShares (IYR Weekly): Home builder is lagging, be careful.
MATERIALS	UP

darren168

1st.

Thanks

IMeMyself

Bench

X中国陆军

pig2006

谢班长

sunburningmyass

thanks.

t-k

dreampen

stockgirl

First page!  

Summerrose

usamonkey

graceabrams

谢蛇大.

lucky99

Bench? Thanks!

maomi

first page still?

lehldk

顶，我跟着你空大盘，但只玩SE 和 LNC， 空SPY, 就三招。高处卖了LNC，后又买回，全仓，我也只想赚点鸡大腿。22.5该是LNC 一个短期底吧。

hippo

good

oda

 
TREND
MOMENTUM
COMMENT

Long-term
1 of 2 are SELL
 
Sell signal to ...
Cobra 发表于 2010-8-17 21:42

老大, ssec 的RSI NEGATIVE-DIVERGENCE已经出现了吧. 谢谢.

开小差

thx,ding

妞妞

thanks
"因此我暂时维持rebound wouldn’t go too far的结论", 好像班长不是很肯定哦, wo还是小心点

天龙

回复 1# Cobra


    thanks