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发表于 2010-8-12 05:33 PM
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本帖最后由 like2swing 于 2010-8-12 20:27 编辑
The Hindenburg omen was developed to predict the potential for a financial market crash. It is created by monitoring the number of securities that form new 52-week highs relative to the number of securities that form new 52-week lows - the number of securities must be abnormally large. This criteria is deemed to be met when both numbers are greater than 2.2% of the total number of issues that trade on the NYSE (for that specific day).
Traders use an abnormally high number of 52-week highs/lows because it suggests that market participants are starting to become unsure of the market's future direction and therefore could be due for a major correction. Proponents of this indicator argue that it has been very accurate in predicting sharp sell-offs in the past and that there are few indicators that can predict a market crash as accurately.
Today (my calculation):
52-week lows/total number in NYSE: 76/3130 = 2.4%
52-week highs/total number in NYSE: 83/3130 = 2.65%
statistically, the bottom line here would indicate a 92% chance of at least a small decline on the Dow, a more than 75% chance of a greater than 5% decline, and a 65% chance of a panic selloff or crash. |
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发表于 2010-8-12 04:28 PM
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发表于 2010-8-12 05:20 PM
