07/02/2010 大盘回顾 （A Low Could Already be In or Very Close）

Cobra

TREND INDICATOR MOMENTUM INDICATOR COMMENT (Click link to see chart) Long-term 1 of 2 are BUY     Intermediate 3 of 3 are SELL 3 of 5 are NEUTRAL Non-Stop Model is in SELL mode Short-term 1 of 1 are SELL 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model is in SELL mode GANN DAY MOON/SOLAR CYCLE & TIME FIB CONCLUSION 07/07-07/11 07/11 / 07/07 07/31, 08/20-08/23 Next pivot date: 07/07-07/11

BULLISH 6.3.2c Major Distribution Day Watch: MDD > 35, bottomed? *0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: NYADV MA(10) oversold. *4.0.4 Dow Theory: Averages Must Confirm: NYA50R oversold. BEARISH 4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly): Head and Shoulders Top plus Bearish Engulfing, target 861.

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU ST Model 07/01 S 1.9xATR(10) May not be a good timing, so be careful. Reversal Bar     NYMO Sell     Non-Stop(RSP) 06/30 S N/A Be sure to check 8.2.2a to 8.2.2g to understand the risks.

*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The main purpose of this report is to provide information so contradictory signals are always presented.

SEASONALITY: JULY IS THE BEST PERFORMING DOW AND S&P MONTH OF THE 3RD QUARTER

 

下面的July Seasonality chart来自Bespoke，基本上the 3rd quarter，July是最好的month了，后面的8月和9月都不好玩。

 

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: REBOUND (IF ANY) THEN MOST LIKELY THE 2ND LEG DOWN

 

总体来说，牛牛的革命形势一片大不好。

1. 06/25 Market Recap，统计数据显示，Weekly Bearish Engulfing，从下周(07/06)开始到下下周都不好玩。
2. 06/30 Market Recap，提到了4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly)的Head and Shoulders Top，target 861，也说明了min correction time是10月2号(min min is Aug 02)。
3. 07/01 Market Recap，论证了既使短期有反弹，非常大的可能性，反弹后至少还有one more leg down。

下面换个角度论证一下关于短期可能有反弹，但是at least there’ll be one more leg down的说法。根据Elder Impulse System，到目前为止，SPY形成了9个Impulse Red bar，这种情况自2000年以来就有过一次。下面的统计是自2000年以来7或者以上的Impulse Red Bar的情况，buy at the 7th Impulse Red bar close, sell 1/2/3/4 days later at close。

 

 

从上面的back test可以看到短期的赢面还是挺大的，但是a little bit longer term，就不怎么好玩了，除了2005，2006两个case以外（基本上，既使是这两个case，at least the 7th Impulse Red bar low was retested soon），剩下的15个case都有at least the 2nd leg down。有兴趣的同学可以点击下面的链接，看看过去所有的cases。

1. 8.2.5a SPY 7 or More Impulse Red Bars 2000 – 2001
2. 8.2.5b SPY 7 or More Impulse Red Bars 2002 – 2003
3. 8.2.5c SPY 7 or More Impulse Red Bars 2005 – 2006
4. 8.2.5d SPY 7 or More Impulse Red Bars 2007 – 2009

 

SHORT-TERM: A LOW COULD ALREADY BE IN OR VERY CLOSE

 

短期，见07/01 Market Recap和周五的After Bell Quick Summary。特别是周五的After Bell Quick Summary，buy at SPY’s 5th down close，hold until the first green day （当然这中间的max draw down可能高达4%，很吓人），100% winning rate (21 out of 21) since year 2000。因此依然维持rebound to 07/07 to 07/11的看法。当然，也有可能SPX直接跌到977 to 998 area(see 07/01 Market Recap for why)，如果是这样的话，07/07 to 07/11则是bottom，此后可能反弹到07/27 to 07/31。

 

目前我比较倾向于反弹到07/07 to 07/11 (then down to 07/27 to 07/31)，so a low could be in already or only one more down day left。

 

理由，除了周五的After Bell Quick Summary SPY down 5 day in a row的统计以外，上面的intermediate-term session里关于the 7th Impulse Red bar的分析，也说明了短期要反弹。此外还有3个理由：

 

VIX Leads SPX.

 

 

0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals，绿色虚线。NYADV MA(10)的oversold至少最近工作的不错，plus ChiOsc有点low。

 

 

0.2.1 10Y T-Bill Yield，Morning Star，看着很bull，因此TNX可能反弹，这意味着SPX也会反弹。

 

 

下面的图for fun only。有两个有趣的发现：

1. 如果以March 09的low附近为中轴的话，可以看到现在的highs/lows和07年/08年的highs/lows有着惊人的对称关系。如果这个对称关系继续成立的话，07/12和07/31将是最近最重要的2个时间点。其中07/12和我上面说的07/07 to 07/11 time window非常吻合。
2. 07/01可能是low，因为是358 calendar day cycle due date。这个也是说a low was already in。

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST
*DTFMS = Dual Time Frame Momentum Strategy. The signal is given when both weekly and daily STO have the same buy/sell signals. Use it as a filter, don’t trade directly.

	TREND	*DTFMS	COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided.
QQQQ	DOWN		ChiOsc a little too low. *NAADV MA(10) oversold. *4.1.1 Nasdaq 100 Index (Weekly): Bearish 1-2-3 formation, target 1565.
IWM	DOWN	SELL	Ascending Broadening Wedge, target $54.97.
CHINA	DOWN
EMERGING	UP
EUROPEAN	UP	*BUY	4.1.7 Vanguard European VIPERs (VGK Weekly): Bearish 1-2-3 formation, target $35.45.
CANADA	DOWN	SELL	*TOADV MA(10) oversold. *4.1.5 iShares CDN S&P/TSX 60 Index Fund (XIU.TO Weekly): Bearish 1-2-3 formation, target $15.30.
BOND	UP		ChiOsc is way too high. *Evening Star, bearish reversal 71% of the time.
EURO	UP	BUY
GOLD	UP	SELL	4.3.0 Gold Trust Shares (GLD Weekly): Head and Shoulders Bottom, target $129.99. Be careful of the non-confirmation of SLV and GDX.
GDX	UP	SELL	4.3.1 Market Vectors Gold Miners (GDX Weekly): GDX:$SPX is too high.
OIL	DOWN	SELL
ENERGY	DOWN		*4.4.1 Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE Weekly): Bearish 1-2-3 formation, target $43.14.
FINANCIALS	DOWN		*4.4.2 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF Weekly): Sitting on very important support.
REITS	UP	SELL	4.4.3 Real Estate iShares (IYR Weekly): Pay attention to XHB weakness!
MATERIALS	DOWN		*4.4.4 Materials Select Sector SPDR (XLB Weekly): Double Top, target $23.27.

tortose

Thank you!

tortose

Ban deng.

小咪

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