04/14/2010 大盘回顾 （CPCE Closed at a Record Low）

Cobra

TREND INDICATOR MOMENTUM INDICATOR COMMENT (Click link to see chart) Long-term 3 of 3 are BUY     Intermediate 3 of 3 are BUY 4 of 6 are OVERBOUGHT Non-Stop Model is in BUY mode Short-term 1 of 1 are BUY 4 of 6 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model is in BUY mode

ATTENTION 2.4.4 NYSE McClellan Oscillator: Negative divergence. BULLISH 4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly): Head and Shoulders Bottom, target 1246. BEARISH *1.0.2 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min): 18 unfilled gaps. (max was 18) *1.1.0 Nasdaq Composite (Daily): 10 unfilled gaps. (max was 10) *0.0.3 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: CPCE and CPC MA(10) too low. 4.0.4 Dow Theory: Averages Must Confirm: NYHILO too high. *1.1.0 Nasdaq Composite (Daily): NDXA50R is way too high. 4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly): BPSPX too high. *0.0.9 Extreme Put Call Ratio Watch: CPCE and CPC MA(5) too low. *8.1.5 Normalized CPCE: New record low. 6.2.3 VIX:VXV Trading Signals: Too low. *2.3.4 Nasdaq Total Volume/NYSE Total Volume: Too high. *04/14 Market Recap:  percent of SPX stocks 1+ std dev above MA(50) is too high. *04/14 Market Recap: Smart/dumb confidence spread at sentimentrader is too large. *04/14 Market Recap: Too many bearish extreme signals at sentimentrader. *04/14 Market Recap: Intermediate-term Indicator Score at sentimentrader is too high. CONCLUSION So far no bearish signals worked but they are simply too many. I won’t attempt any short until the next NYMO Sell setup is triggered. Still hold the SPY ST Model long position, but no more equities long will be added.

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING VEHICLE: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU ST Model 02/26 L 03/31 low   Reversal Bar   NYMO Sell     Non-Stop     Newly added setup, will give signal on this setup the next time it’s triggered. OTHER ETFs TREND TRADE COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided. QQQQ UP   4.1.1 Nasdaq 100 Index (Weekly): BPNDX too high. IWM UP     CHINA ?     EMERGING UP     CANADA UP   4.1.5 iShares CDN S&P/TSX 60 Index Fund (XIU.TO Weekly): BPTSX is too high. BOND DOWN   *Black bar plus big red bar, so pullback confirmed? DOLLAR UP   Head and Shoulders Bottom, target $24.28. GOLD UP   *Seems to hold well above the breakout point. GDX UP   Ascending Triangle, target $54.2. *Hammer and held the Ascending Triangle breakout point, will keep rebound? OIL UP ENERGY UP   FINANCIALS UP   4.4.2 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF Weekly): Fib confluences area from $16.76 to $16.97 could be the target. Up 9 weeks in a row tied the past record of streak up weeks. REITS UP MATERIALS UP   4.4.4 Materials Select Sector SPDR (XLB Weekly): BPMATE too high.

*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The main purpose of this report is to provide information so contradictory signals are always presented.

SEASONALITY: THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IS GENERALL BULLISH

According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac:

1. 04/15 income tax deadline, Dow down only 5 times since 1981.
2. April expiration day, Dow up 11 of last 13.

CYCLE ANALYSIS: CYCLE TOP COULD BE AROUND 04/11 TO 04/15

See 04/08 Market Recap for more details.

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: EXPECT ROLLER COASTER AHEAD

Nothing new, according to the II Survey, too many people expected a correction, so the stock market should rise to a new high first before actually pulling back. Basically, my guess is that we’ll repeat the year 2004 roller coaster pattern. See 03/19 Market Recap for more details.

 

SHORT-TERM: A STRONG EARNINGS OFF-SEASON USUALLY MEANS A WEAKER EARNINGS SEASON

See 04/09 Market Recap, the statistics about the Earnings Season plus the cycle analysis and plus too many bearish extremes accumulated in the table above, so my guess is that we’ll see typical sell on news in the coming earnings season.

 

今天不说大家也知道，很多很多很多很多bearish extremes，看table里多了很多星星就知道了。稍微花点时间，看看下面的图吧，也许过几天会发现这些extremes不算啥，也许过几天会发现不知不觉中我们今天已经见证了历史，who knows and perhaps who cares?

 

6.1.0 Extreme CPCE Readings Watch，我相信这是今天各newsletter的话题，CPCE record low了，换句话说就是从来也没有过那么多人买CALL，那么少的人买PUT。

 

 

0.0.9 Extreme Put Call Ratio Watch，由于CPCE过低，因此这个图出了top信号，见红虚线。

 

 

今天最好玩的是Nasdaq Intraday Cumulative Tick (courtesy of sentimentrader)高的惊人。

 

 

看一下下面的图就明白为什么cumulative tick那么高了：今天几乎就没有小于0的TICK，真是牛啊。

 

 

下面的图由于我的public chart list里没有，所以帖在下面，算是报告一下最新的情况，其他没提及的图，点击table里的链接就可以看到了。

 

 

STOCK SCREENER:  For fun only, I may not actually trade the screeners. Since SPY ST Model is in BUY mode, only LONG candidates are listed. For back test details as well as how to confirm the entry and set stop loss please read HERE. Please make sure you understand the basic risk management HERE.

Looks like it’s too late to long stocks now as the market is way too overbought. Waiting for a better chance.

stockgirl

沙发!  哈哈哈哈

牛熊

sha fa

Poo

牛熊

杀

牛熊

沙

福多多

ding

brcm

.........见过牛， 但....从来没见过这么牛的。。。。

Diffusion

牛熊

杀
牛熊 发表于 2010-4-14 21:22

darren168

Ding

weigoodone01

rdonly

Thanks

stockgirl

Sofa!

happyface

thanks

牛熊

oops!

萧秋水

辛苦了，多谢！

slcgh

zeru001

Thanks!

rosyrosy