|
|
|
|
| SPY SETUP |
ENTRY DATE |
STOP LOSS |
INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE.
TRADING VEHICLE: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU |
| ST Model |
02/26 L |
03/26 low |
|
| Reversal Bar |
|
|
|
| NYMO Sell |
|
|
*Short if SPY tomorrow’s Open > tomorrow’s Close, for aggressive traders only. |
| Non-Stop |
|
|
Newly added setup, will give signal on this setup the next time it’s triggered. |
| OTHER ETFs |
TREND |
MACD |
COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided. When TREND is up, use MACD buy, when TREND is down, use MACD sell. |
| QQQQ |
UP |
SELL |
4.1.1 Nasdaq 100 Index (Weekly): BPNDX too high. |
| IWM |
UP |
SELL |
|
| CHINA |
? |
BUY |
|
| EMERGING |
UP |
BUY |
|
| CANADA |
UP |
SELL |
4.1.5 iShares CDN S&P/TSX 60 Index Fund (XIU.TO Weekly): BPTSX is too high. |
| BOND |
DOWN |
SELL |
|
| DOLLAR |
UP |
SELL |
Head and Shoulders Bottom, target $24.28. |
| GOLD |
*UP |
BUY |
|
| GDX |
*UP |
BUY |
*Breakout of an Ascending Triangle, target $54.2. |
| OIL |
UP |
BUY |
|
| ENERGY |
UP |
BUY |
|
| FINANCIALS |
UP |
BUY |
|
| REITS |
UP |
SELL |
|
| MATERIALS |
UP |
BUY |
4.4.4 Materials Select Sector SPDR (XLB Weekly): BPMATE too high. | |
*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The main purpose of this report is to provide information so contradictory signals are always presented.
SEASONALITY: APRIL IS THE BEST MONTH FOR THE DOW
According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac, April is the best month for the Dow, average 1.9% gain since 1950. See 04/01 Market Recap for the April Seasonality chart.
CYCLE ANALYSIS: CYCLE TOP AROUND 04/01, COULD PULLBACK TO AROUND 04/12
See 04/01 Market Recap, originally I thought the market could be topped around 04/01 then pullback to around 04/12. I’ll give another day or two for this cycle to work out but looks like it could be wrong AGAIN.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: EXPECT ROLLER COASTER AHEAD
Nothing new, according to the II Survey, too many people expected a correction, so the stock market should rise to a new high first before actually pulling back. Basically, my guess is that we’ll repeat the year 2004 roller coaster pattern. See 03/19 Market Recap for more details.
SHORT-TERM: MIXED SIGNALS, NEED SEE TOMORROW
今天的下跌不说明什么问题，特别是After Bell Quick Summary提到的Block Buy Ratio is very high，plus 1.0.3 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 30 min)的phantom bar，因此不排除明天就new high的可能。
另一方面，2.0.0 Volatility Index (Daily)在关键support上形成了一个反转意味很强的黑棒棒，因此不排除VIX further rebound的可能性，这是对熊熊有利的。The bottom line，我相信further pullback迟早是会有的，只是不确定是否今天就开始了，we’ll see。
4.1.3 Volatility Index (Weekly)，VIX当前support的重要性，在weekly图上看得很清楚。
其他没啥了，两个a little little little bit bearish signs。
2.3.4 Nasdaq Total Volume/NYSE Total Volume，有点高，表示大家太爱Beta，因此是too bullish。老规矩，上面table里摆着，看看这次要攒多少信号才work，嘿嘿。
6.4.0 SPX and NYMO Divergence Watch，这是NYMO Sell Setup的原型，当然NYMO Sell明天还有个confirm的条件，见table above。
STOCK SCREENER: For fun only, I may not actually trade the screeners. Since SPY ST Model is in BUY mode, only LONG candidates are listed. For back test details as well as how to confirm the entry and set stop loss please read HERE. Please make sure you understand the basic risk management HERE.
Looks like it’s too late to long stocks now as the market is way too overbought. Waiting for a better chance. | 
狗仔卡
发表于 2010-4-7 08:11 PM
提升卡
置顶卡
沉默卡
喧嚣卡
变色卡
发表于 2010-4-7 08:12 PM
Thanks!