03/30/2010 大盘回顾 （Symmetrical Triangle?）

Cobra

TREND INDICATOR MOMENTUM INDICATOR COMMENT (Click link to see chart) Long-term 3 of 3 are BUY     Intermediate 3 of 3 are BUY 4 of 6 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model is in BUY mode Short-term 1 of 1 are BUY 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL

ATTENTION 2.4.4 NYSE McClellan Oscillator: Negative divergence. BULLISH 4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly): Head and Shoulders Bottom, target 1246 1.0.2 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min): Head and Shoulders Bottom, target 119.42. BEARISH 1.0.2 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min): 16 unfilled gaps. (max was 16) 1.1.0 Nasdaq Composite (Daily): 9 unfilled gaps. (max was 10) 0.0.3 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: CPCE MA(10) too low. 4.0.4 Dow Theory: Averages Must Confirm: NYHILO too high. 1.1.0 Nasdaq Composite (Daily): NDXA50R is way too high. 03/25 Market Recap: Smart/dumb confidence spread is too large. 4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly): BPSPX too high. CONCLUSION Bearish signals are accumulated enough to justify a short sell. For aggressive traders only. 03/25, another Bearish Engulfing and the NYMO Sell setup was triggered.

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING VEHICLE: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU ST Model 02/26 L *03/22 low *Adjust stop loss. Reversal Bar   NYMO Sell 03/25 S 03/25 high Non-Stop     Newly added setup as requested, suitable for investors, no stop loss, simply long or short. Better use RSP (equal weighted SPX ETF) for an average annual return around 15.4% since 2004. Will start to give signal on this setup the next time it’s triggered. OTHER ETFs MID TERM INDICATOR COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided. QQQQ UP 3 of 3 BUY 6.4.6 QQQQ Black Bar Watch: doesn’t look good. 4.1.1 Nasdaq 100 Index (Weekly): BPNDX too high. IWM UP 2 of 2 SELL CHINA UP 1 of 1 BUY Symmetrical Triangle breakout. Expect more on the upside. EMERGING ? *2 of 2 BUY   CANADA UP 2 of 3 SELL 4.1.5 iShares CDN S&P/TSX 60 Index Fund (XIU.TO Weekly): 3 Doji under important resistance. Lots of negative divergence plus BPTSX is too high. Expect pullback. BOND DOWN 2 of 2 SELL Symmetrical Triangle breakdown. Expect more pullbacks ahead. DOLLAR UP 2 of 2 BUY Head and Shoulders Bottom, target $24.28. 3.1.1 PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP 30 min): Could be Head and Shoulders Top, target $23.74. GOLD DOWN 2 of 2 SELL GDX DOWN 2 of 2 SELL Small Double Top, target $41.52. OIL ? 1 of 2 SELL ENERGY ? 2 of 3 SELL FINANCIALS UP 2 of 3 BUY REITS UP 1 of 2 BUY False breakout on narrow range so the real breakout could be on the downside. MATERIALS ? 1 of 3 BUY 4.4.4 Materials Select Sector SPDR (XLB Weekly): BPMATE too high.

*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The main purpose of this report is to provide information so contradictory signals are always presented.

SEASONALITY: THE LAST 3 TRADING DAYS OF MARCH ARE BEARISH WHILE APRIL 1ST IS VERY BULLISH

CYCLE ANALYSIS: EXPECT A DOJI THIS WEEK, MAY PULLBACK NEXT WEEK UNTIL 04/12

See 03/26 Market Recap for more details.

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: EXPECT ROLLER COASTER AHEAD

Nothing new, according to the II Survey, too many people expected a correction, so the stock market should rise to a new high first before actually pulling back. Basically, my guess is that we’ll repeat the year 2004 roller coaster pattern. See 03/19 Market Recap for more details.

 

SHORT-TERM: A SYMMETRICAL TRIANGLE MEANS ONE MORE PUSH UP?

 

今天还是没话说，1.0.3 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 30 min)，可能是Symmetrical Triangle，因此按照Elliott Wave Theory，明天还有一push up。收盘前的VIX sharp sell off也支持这一理论。最后能否收绿，则不好说，因为底下的breadth (black histogram bars) 明显的越来越弱了，明天没有什么惊人的好消息的话，breadth应该更弱，因此red day的可能性比较大一些。

 

 

4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly)，weekly图再看一下，红线，BPSPX很高意味着至少会有一个weekly red bar，不过看绿圈圈，过去有一例是BPSPX very overbought后又涨了一周才pullback的，这也是为什么我说本周可能Doji或小棒棒（就是说one more green week），下周会有pullback的主要理由。目前还是维持这个判断。

 

 

STOCK SCREENER:  For fun only, I may not actually trade the screeners. Since SPY ST Model is in BUY mode, only LONG candidates are listed. For back test details as well as how to confirm the entry and set stop loss please read HERE. Please make sure you understand the basic risk management HERE.

 

Looks like it’s too late to long stocks now as the market is way too overbought. Waiting for a better chance.

bucks

sofa?

bucks

oh yeah, first time ever

bucks

one more seat

hutongchuanzi

Ding!!!

baker

thanks a lot

ppjeep

Thanks!

H@T

先顶后看！

H@T

沙发总是差那么一点点！  谢谢班长！

lite1067

其实每天review只要一个字“涨”，就是八九不离十啦。

littlehua

ding, laoda!

萧秋水

辛苦!多谢!

wxp

前排

sooners

回复 1# Cobra


    thanks

t-k

happyface

谢谢老蛇,涨的我都傻了.

源济

Cobra

谢谢老蛇,涨的我都傻了.
happyface 发表于 2010-3-30 20:00

   

源济

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赌：$SPX涨跌，周三 3/31/2010


欢迎各位光临，多谢捧场，恭喜发财！

源济

读完老蛇的报告，快去赌版投票、下注！


赌：$SPX涨跌，周三 3/31/2010


欢迎各位光临，多谢捧场，恭喜发财！