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发表于 2010-3-14 09:26 PM
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本帖最后由 trader3 于 2010-3-14 20:29 编辑
最后补一句. Traderlab的Anek曾经有一篇具体的关于各种trading methods的介绍, 供大家参考.
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ONCE A TREND HAS BEEN DETERMINED HOW TO PLAY IT (entry)
by Anek
If a MEANINGFUL TREND (uptrend or downtrend) has been found we need a logical entry.
UPTREND
BUY on a pullback and be nimble with your target.
Take advantage of minor WEAKNESS in a STRONG TREND to get a good fill.
Target can be whatever you feel comfortable with, it is entirely up to you and only in time will you master this. A few examples as follows:
50% Fib retracement from the recent High to Low swing
few ticks below previous resistance
measured move up
You could trail the stop to ride those breakouts, all very discretionary.
(Stop? Whatever would make it a lower low aka a CHANGE of trend)
Uptrend channel: Two higher lows, two higher highs
DOWNTREND (the evil twin)
SELL (Short) on a pop up and again be nimble with our target.
Take advantage of minor STRENTH in a WEAK TREND to get a good fill.
Target can be whatever you feel comfortable with, it is entirely up to you and only in time will you master this. A few examples as follows:
50% Fib retracement from the recent Low to High swing
few ticks below above previous support
measured move down
You could trail the stop to ride those breakdowns, all very discretionary.
(Stop? Whatever would make it a higher high aka a CHANGE of trend.)
Downtrend channel: Two lower highs and two lower lows
When looking for entry, say a long or even re-entry, you want strength to return in the pullback and when that happens make sure price did not violate the current highs and lows.
Never go against the trend. When the trend is strong buy a pullback. When the trend is weak short a pop up. The market can not be predicted consistently and consistency is what we want, so be smart about this. No exceptions!!!
If STOPPED OUT, meaning, a CHANGE of a trend, stay ON THE SIDELINES until a NEW MEANINGFUL TREND is defined and we take our stop like responsible traders.
REVERSALS are the enemy, they stop us out. Luckily, they are not very common which is exactly why this strategy works. Some days will be filled with them and sadly I don't know how to overcome this. On days like this, you will lose money.
A lower low without a lower high is not the same as a lower low with a lower high.... and a higher low without a higher high is not an uptrend.
CHANGE OF TREND
Trend must go from a downtrend to an uptrend or vice versa. (2 HH's 2 HL's or 2 LL's 2LH's)
The exception is if one of the two swings is a double bottom or a double top but the next swing must be a HH/HL or LL/LH.
If nothing of that kind, then you stay out and let a clear trend develop.
Trend line breaks are usually more aggressive when the last high was not a higher high, especially if it was a LOWER high.
The steeper a trend line the higher chances of a TL break, they simply have much higher chances of losing control of the trend
Never call a top, never call a bottom, it is IMPOSSIBLE to predict accurately on a consistent basis therefore the best approach is to examine what is happening NOW, attempt to profit from possible volatility and situate yourself in a strategic place, with patience and conviction.
A bottom is never confirmed until you see higher lows *and* higher highs, with a subsequent low that is also a higher low hinting towards yet another new, higher high.
The statement exists for a reason. “the trend is your friend”
Many of you seem to be playing G.I. Joe with your own capital thinking that you have predictive abilities that will make a trend change on a consistently basis before it actually does. Here is a tip, YOU DO NOT!
Here is a simple AHG rule that is simple but it does not seem to be very clear.
Unless a confirmed reversal formation has completed you do not trade against the trend, ever. Not even as a fun scalp because the odds will be against you, you want odds in your favor.
I never ever do it unless I see multiple confirmations supporting the stunt and that's taking into consideration that I'm fairly adept at reading the tape
*You should make it a post it note and stick it in your monitor*
Trendlines
As many as you need to determine the current trend. (Hand placed preferred)
45 º trend lines are extremely useful. If you don't have complete pivots to guide you, you can anticipate the second one by using a 45 º trend line.
You will be amazed at the number of times price rebounds on them *if* there is a trend.
When an engulfing signal forms around there an opportunity for low risk potential rewards usually presents itself.
Once the second pivot forms, you no longer need estimate readjust it.
Pivots
Are both subjective and objective, that's where skill and experience comes into place.
The pivots plotted by the software are quick areas of reference but not necessarily written in stone as they have fixed parameters that might work for some scenarios and not for others.
Frequency
Use frequency displacement or wave length to gauge one pivot from the other.
Confluence in distance helps.
Channels
If price is trading in a channel, for the sake of argument, let’s say a downtrend channel; expect it to bounce up and down with a bearish tendency. Now, to ensure your stops are small, even in a downtrend you want to short high, and in an uptrend you want to buy low, this is where the trend lines of the channel help. This is not the same with formations, a solid confirmed reversal formation is quite alright for entering at the lows but this is not the case of channels. Hence why I suggest the trend line channels usage as guidance. The formations price will form at the extremes do tell good info, so make sure you pay attention. In yesterday's case the downtrend channel formed a bear flag as it broke the channel to the downside, I was almost certain price was ready to fall, but it failed miserably. Naturally I took my small stop and realized that price was not ready to go to lower lows because if a confirmed bear flag failed, which is one of the most reliable formations for downside, the failure should be applied accordingly. The subsequent move was higher lows from the bear flag pattern until it finally broke out of the channel. However, that was predictable. As explained in the past, failures are sometimes as powerful as or even more powerful than patterns themselves.Notice that during rectangle consolidation, where price is bouncing off support and resistance there is no predominant side to choose between the two, in this case, look at the whole day and choose the side that has been winning all day long, if no clear definition, simply stay out and wait for better setups or wait for a confirmed breakout that aligns with the predominant intraday trend.
Fibonacci Retracement Lines (Anek's favorite)
50% from last swing low/high provides an excellent entry point. Problem is sometimes the trend is so strong it won't even give you your wish and you miss the fill.
Used to predict targets not trends, for the trend you have price. |
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