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INTERMEDIATE-TERM: COULD BE A BIGGER CORRECTION BUT NOT SURE IF THERE’S A NEW HIGH FIRST
中期方向的推断还是根据II Survey，看correction的人太多，所以会有大反弹，然后才是真正的correction。注意下面图的红线，so far repeats exactly the past pattern，是吧？所以我非常有理由相信could be a bigger correction ahead。现在的问题是自2月5号的反弹是否已经结束还是there is more？
由于下周有很多cycle due date，目前看起来象是top。此外后面short-term分析里也会提到，很大几率下周会revisit the Thursday’s low，所以结论是也许可能大概没有时间new high了。
- 1.0.7 SPX Cycle Watch (Daily)
- 1.0.8 SPX Cycle Watch (Moon Phases)
- 1.0.9 SPX Cycle Watch (60 min)
Important highs and lows Calendar，有兴趣地可以看到，过去10年中，三月份的转折点是最多的。其中最著名的大概是03/06/2009，mad cow就是从那时开始的。过去在03/06附近的转折点还有，03/05/2004，03/07/2005，03/08/2006。非常巧合的是1.0.7 SPX Cycle Watch (Daily)的紫色线表示的cycle due date，正好是03/08 (03/06 is weekend)。所以，again，我认为下周的几个cycle due应该是有一定的可信度的。
SHORT-TERM: VERY LIKELY THE THURSDAY LOW WILL BE REVISITED
有两个证据表明the Thursday low could be revisited the next week。当然，跟我的很多证据一样，只是说几率上讲哪个比较大些，不是sure thing。
QQQQ weekly open high close in red，数数红箭头加蓝箭头，( 6 + 19 ) / 31 = 81%的几率，there’ll be a low which is lower than the Thursday’s low the next week。
Rydex Enthusiasm Index from sentimentrader，注意红线，散户捞底很太踊跃的话，第二天也许会小涨，看红箭头。但是第三天就不是很好玩了。这就是说也许可能大概没有After Bell Quick Summary里所说的Bullish Monday。
STOCK SCREENER: For fun only, I may not actually trade the screeners. Since SPY ST Model is in BUY mode, only LONG candidates are listed. For back test details as well as how to confirm the entry and set stop loss please read HERE. Please make sure you understand the basic risk management HERE.
Since the intermediate-term direction is not clear, so no stock screeners from now on until the dust settles.
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狗仔卡
发表于 2010-2-28 02:03 AM
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变色卡
发表于 2010-2-28 02:07 AM
