02/18/2010 大盘回顾 （Is the same old mad cow back?）

Cobra

TREND INDICATOR MOMENTUM INDICATOR COMMENT (Click link to see chart) Long-term 3 of 3 are BUY     Intermediate 2 of 3 are SELL 5 of 6 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model is in SELL mode Short-term 1 of 1 are BUY 6 of 8 are OVERBOUGHT

BULLISH 0.0.3 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: CPC MA10 is too low. 1.0.3 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 30 min): Ascending Triangle confirmed. Target $111.72. BEARISH 6.4.A SPY Bottom Shape: Could be another leg down to test the low. 02/12 Market Recap: Seasonality is generally bearish this week. 2.4.2 NYSE - Issues Advancing: Overbought. CONCLUSION

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING VEHICLE: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU ST Model     Reversal Bar       NYMO Sell       VIX MA ENV     *Short if SPY Open > Close and VIX rise back into MA ENV.

OTHER ETFs TREND COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided. QQQQ   IWM   ChiOsc too high. CHINA Down Double Top confirmed. EMERGING Down CANADA FINANCIALS Down REITS   MATERIALS   ChiOsc too high. ENERGY Down OIL   *ChiOsc and STO too high. GOLD Down DOLLAR UP Head and Shoulders Bottom, target $24.28.  ChiOsc too low. BOND Down

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: INITIAL PULLBACK TARGET MET BUT COULD BE MORE

 

No update, see 02/05/2010 Market Recap, Fib 38.2% retracement target was met, but I suspect there’s more. There’s a chance that after the pullback is over, we’ll see a new high followed by a bigger pullback thereafter.

 

SHORT-TERM: NEGATIVE SEASONALITY + OVERBOUGHT + RESISTANCES + FED VS MAD COW

 

0.0.3 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals，篮圈圈，现在看起来像过去的mad cow又回来了。明天，除了今天AH的Fed hike discount rate以外，还有些不牛牛friendly的因素，如果大盘还是不顾一切的上涨的话，那very likely the old mad cow is back。The bottom line，从6.4.A SPY Bottom Shape看，我还是认为一条腿不容易站稳，因此最终还是要掉下来测试low的，只是现在我不sure大盘是否new high first。关于可能new high的理由，见02/05/2010 Market Recap，是根据II Survey看correction的人过多的pattern推测而来的。

 

 

下面简单列一下明天不牛牛friendly的因素：

 

Seasonality wise，明天是二月最bearish的一天，同时统计上讲，Feb OE Day was down 12 of the last 16 years。

 

 

0.0.2 SPY Short-term Trading Signals and 0.0.5 QQQQ Short-term Trading Signals，不仅仅是overbought，而且也是到了重要的resistance了。

 

 

1.0.3 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 30 min) and 1.1.5 PowerShares QQQ Trust (QQQQ 30 min)，lots of negative divergences。

 

 

6.2.0b VIX Trading Signals (ENV)，明天可能的trading setup，看一下吧，除了VIX要rise back into MA ENV以外，还必须SPY Open > Close。这个setup的winning rate是66%。 

 

 

STOCK SCREENER:  For fun only, I may not actually trade the screeners. Since SPY ST Model is in SELL mode, only SHORT candidates are listed. For back test details as well as how to confirm the entry and set stop loss please read HERE. Please make sure you understand the basic risk management HERE.

 

Today’s screener has 4 stocks found.

 

 

According to the entry rule, 17 stocks found yesterday were confirmed.

 

 

soulvirus

沙发

soulvirus

板凳

soulvirus

地板

schmd2000

bucks

michaelzhang

Bencat

daxiong

Ding!

vivian7899

柴禾

抢个第一排中间位子再看。

atrader

thanks

happyface

thanks so much

H@T

坐好再看

Alchemist

Jeff

armorr

thanks!

summer123

ranchgirl

cboom

thx