德国要出手救市了

lostinca

看来上周5和今天可能是有消息走漏出来了。可怜的熊熊们，要被烧到JJ了。


http://online.wsj.com/article/SB ... rkets_section_Heard

Berlin's Wall Around Greek Ruins?

Is it a loan? Is it a bond? No, it's a potential euro-zone guarantee for profligate sovereigns.

After weeks of panicky markets, which caused Greek sovereign-debt spreads to balloon, neighbors appear ready to aid Athens. Talk of debt guarantees to tide Greece over and reduce the chance of contagion calmed markets Tuesday.

Loan guarantees brokered by Germany might appear an elegant solution to the crisis. Except in a default, they avoid any fiscal transfer of the kind that would be anathema to the euro zone. They may never be called on, and they carry a price to whomever uses them.

But guaranteeing Greece's debt also would raise serious questions, most obviously over moral hazard. If the European Union is willing to bow to markets and create a guarantee program, it could find it tougher to enforce fiscal discipline on Greece and other high-deficit countries. After all, once guarantees are in place, the threat of removing them would ring hollow.

Guarantees, if widely used, also would risk increasing the cost of borrowing for countries underwriting them, such as Germany, and could prove a weight on the euro itself. After all, Greece isn't exactly like the banks, which quickly used the cover of debt guarantees to raise new equity and rebuild their financial positions through a return to profitability. Greece faces a painful road to work through its problems.

If a guarantee program does get off the ground, there remain many details to sort out. Which countries would be eligible? How much would it cost to tap the guarantees? What term of debt would it cover, and how long would it last? Which states would be on the hook for any losses? How would the program be squared with EU rules against bailouts?

Of course, nothing is set in stone. The very idea that Germany is willing to back Greece could breathe confidence back into markets and head off the risk of contagion hitting the banking system again.

But it also could backfire. Politicians may be giving in too quickly. Greece raised ? billion ($10.93 billion) in the bond market just weeks ago, and only faces major debt maturities in April and May. Athens already has announced measures, including raising the retirement age in recent weeks, and had promised regular updates, under strict European Commission scrutiny.

Guarantees could encourage countries to defer their problems. If German taxpayers effectively take on Greece's risk, it could reduce the appetite in Athens for adequate fiscal retrenchment. And Greek citizens might bridle at a program effectively overseen by Berlin. In bailing out Greece, Europe actually might set the stage for worse political tensions, unless Greece miraculously grows its way out of the problem.

— Thorold Barker and Richard Barley


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http://online.wsj.com/article/SB ... omy_LEADStorySecond



BERLIN—Germany is considering a plan with its European Union partners to offer Greece and other troubled euro-zone members loan guarantees in an effort to calm fears of a government default and prevent a widening of the credit woes, people familiar with the matter said.

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WSJ's Charles Forelle and Dow Jones's Mike Reid discuss whether a loan guarantee from Germany can help Greece avoid a debt crisis. Plus, markets close higher on European optimism. These stories and more in the News Hub.
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Vote: Bailout or default? Which scenario would you rather see for Greece? The plan would be undertaken within the EU framework but led by Germany, one of the people said. German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble has discussed the idea in recent days with European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet, according to the person.

Mr. Schäuble told officials in Berlin on Monday that he had concluded there "was no alternative" to a rescue plan, according to a person familiar with his comments.

EU leaders are expected to discuss the situation at summit in Brussels on Thursday. A final decision on the plan may not come this week but Germany has concluded that guarantees are likely the most efficient way to prevent the spread of the debt crisis, a person familiar with the matter said.

A spokesman for Germany's finance ministry said no decisions on aid had been made. A spokesman for EU President Herman Van Rompuy declined to comment. An ECB spokeswoman also declined to comment.

U.S. shares shot higher on the news, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing up 150.25 points, or 1.5%, to close at 10058.84. European stock markets were closed but the euro quickly added to its gains against the dollar, rising above $1.38, and credit spreads tightened further.

The deliberations underscore the growing concern in Europe that the market turmoil surrounding high debt levels in Greece and other countries on the periphery of the 16-member euro zone could undermine monetary union.

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Jean-Claude Trichet has planned to attend the EU summit all along, according to his office.
It is unclear how the debt guarantees under consideration might be structured, but with any aid, the EU will be walking a delicate line between forestalling a greater disaster and letting chronic overspenders like Greece off easy, which could further damage trust in the euro.

"As long as it is very clear that any support only comes with very, very stringent conditions attached, it would not affect the moral-hazard question," said Fabian Zuleeg, chief economist at the European Policy Centre, a Brussels think tank. Still, he said, "It is a choice between two evils."

A bailout would also likely face fierce popular opposition in Germany and other countries whose taxpayers would effectively be taking on the risk of a default in the affected countries.

That the EU members are nonetheless considering such a step suggests that policy makers view the alternative—a potential default of a euro-zone country—to be an even worse outcome and one that could have grave consequences for both the European and global economy.

EU policy makers say the tumult in Greece poses an important test of the credibility of the euro, the bloc's decade-old common currency.


In a sense, the euro is a risky experiment, an economic alliance built on common monetary policy but independent fiscal management, coupled with a weak political pledge that no individual country will spend too much—a rule that Greece has repeatedly violated over the past decade. Greece's budget deficit for 2009 is expected to come in at close to 13% of its gross domestic product, far above the EU's ceiling of 3%.

Germany's willingness to consider a rescue may also reflect the exposure of the country's own banks to the vulnerable countries.

German banks are major lenders in Greece, for example, collectively carrying about $43 billion in Greek debt on their books, including loans to private individuals and companies, according to Bank for International Settlements data for the third quarter of 2009. Among EU countries, only France's banks, with $75 billion, carry a larger share of Greece's $303 billion in debt to foreign banks.

In addition, some of Germany's public-sector banks, known as Landesbanken, have issued insurance-like contracts on Greek debt, known as credit default swaps. The total exposure of the country's eight Landesbanken is unclear.

Two of the banks, Bayern LB and West LB, described their exposure to Greek credit default swaps as negligible. Hanover-based NordLB and LBBW in Stuttgart declined to comment. Frankfurt-based Helaba and HSH Nordbank in Hamburg didn't immediately respond to requests for comment. SaarLB, in Saarbrücken, couldn't immediately be reached.

Providing aid to Greece and other countries wouldn't be straightforward, and it's unclear how it could be done under the aegis of the EU. Some members, such as the U.K., which hasn't joined the euro, would likely object.

A spokesman for the U.K. Treasury said there is no proposal on the table for financial assistance, but in "the event of any action by the euro zone, that would be a matter for the euro zone."

U.K. Treasury Chief Alistair Darling has also publicly distanced the country, which spent billions of pounds on bailing out its own banks during the height of the crises, from participation in any euro-zone bailout.

The ECB and national central banks can't bail out countries, according to the EU's governing treaty. But there are no such strictures on individual governments. Euro-zone countries can't be forced to accept liability for their brethren's borrowing, but there is nothing to keep them from voluntarily helping others.

The structuring of a bailout as a guarantee rather than a direct loan would make the costs to the providers of the bailout hard to calculate. There would likely to be costs to Germany from taking on more risk, for example, increasing the interest rate on its own government debt. In some past successful bailout packages, only a fraction of the headline number has been called upon because investor confidence gets a big boost. For example, during the Mexico "tequila crisis" in the mid-1990s, only a small portion of the total support of some $50 billion provided by the U.S. and others was eventually used.

For weeks, investors have fretted that Greece's huge budget deficits and heavy national debt load put its sovereign bonds at risk of default.

On Tuesday, after the news of a possible bailout, the cost of insuring Greek debt, as measured by credit default swaps, plunged. Insurance for ?0 million of five-year Greek debt dropped by ?0,000 ($109,280) to ?40,000.

As markets jumped and credit insurance costs plunged, a German government spokesman declared that no decision on a rescue had been reached. This reversed some of the market action momentarily but later news that French President Nicolas Sarkozy would meet with Greece's Prime Minister Giorgos Papandreou on Wednesday bolstered the belief that a bailout was getting closer.

In any case, a bailout would raise profound questions about the EU's "stability and growth pact," the mechanism by which euro-zone countries manage their deficits and debt—a pact that the EU has maintained would be enough to bring countries' fiscal positions into line.

—Stephen Fidler, Adam Cohen, Neil Shah and Tom Lauricella contributed to this article.
Write to Charles Forelle at charles.forelle@wsj.com and Adam Cohen at

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