02/09/2010 大盘回顾 （A Few Bullish Signs）

Cobra

TREND INDICATOR MOMENTUM INDICATOR COMMENT (Click link to see chart) Long-term 3 of 3 are BUY     Intermediate 3 of 3 are SELL 5 of 6 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model is in SELL mode Short-term 1 of 1 are SELL 9 of 9 are NEUTRAL

BULLISH 6.3.2c Major Distribution Day Watch: Bottom is close? 0.0.9 Extreme Put Call Ratio Watch: *Bottom is close? 2.0.0 Volatility Index (Daily): *3 reversal bars in a row, VIX may pullback. BEARISH 6.3.0 Major Accumulation/Distribution Days: Another Major Distribution Day ahead? CONCLUSION

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING VEHICLE: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU ST Model 02/04 S 1.9 x ATR(10) Reversal Bar 02/04 S   *Stopped out short position flat. NYMO Sell       VIX MA ENV

OTHER ETFs TREND COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided. QQQQ   IWM     CHINA Down Double Top or Bearish 1-2-3 Formation? EMERGING Down CANADA Double Top, target $15.77. FINANCIALS Down Could be a confirmed Head and Shoulders Top. REITS   Measured Move, target $41.54. *Stick Sandwich pattern confirmed. MATERIALS   ENERGY Down Confirmed Double Top. OIL   Could be a Double Top in the forming. GOLD Down Descending Triangle, target $91.08. DOLLAR UP Head and Shoulders Bottom, target $24.28. BOND   3.0.0 10Y T-Bill Yield: Bearish 1-2-3 formation, target 34.43.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: INITIAL PULLBACK TARGET MET BUT COULD BE MORE

 

No update, see 02/05/2010 Market Recap, Fib 38.2% retracement target was met, but I suspect there’s more. There’s a chance that after the pullback is over, we’ll see a new high followed by a bigger pullback thereafter.

 

SHORT-TERM: MARKET MAY VERY CLOSE TO AT LEAST A SHORT-TERM BOTTOM  

 

见上面的table，今天又多了两个bullish信号，因此机会大大的有，the market may very close to at least a short-term bottom。当然，牛牛还有两个魔咒，一是这两天一直念叨的6.3.0 Major Accumulation/Distribution Days，the Major Distribution Day seldom comes alone，就是说可能还有恐怖一跌。二是6.4.A SPY Bottom Shape，见下面，根据过去bottom的形状，自己看看，现在象不象bottom？因此结论是，a bottom (could be either short-term or intermediate term) should be very close but the market may test 02/05 low first。当然，不能排除market就这么一路涨上去的可能，不过，因为没有能够先测试low，因此一条腿不容易站稳，所以最终还是要掉下来的，如果是这种情况，那for sure，这仅仅是个short-term bottom。

 

 

三个bullish sign列在下面，看一下。

 

6.3.2c Major Distribution Day Watch, NYDNV:NYUPV > 35, usually a bottom is very close.

 

 

0.0.9 Extreme Put Call Ratio Watch，见绿框框。

 

 

2.0.0 Volatility Index (Daily)，连着三个反转棒，VIX pullback机会非常大，这意味着SPX会涨。 

 

 

STOCK SCREENER:  For fun only, I may not actually trade the screeners. Since SPY ST Model is in SELL mode, only SHORT candidates are listed. For back test details as well as how to confirm the entry and set stop loss please read HERE. Please make sure you understand the basic risk management HERE.

 

Today’s screener has 0 stock found.

 

According to the entry rule, BRCM found yesterday wasn’t confirmed.

 

IMeMyself

Shafa

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沙发？

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赌：$SPX涨跌，周三 2/10/2010


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风清扬

朱坚强

abaqus

sandera

6th-Sense

Thanks!

gear

Thanks

schmd2000

happyface

thanks a lot

ddr

dsl

armorr

Thanks!!

dxzhu

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noob

1# Cobra


thx!

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