01/29/2010 大盘回顾 （Gap Support Or Island Reversal?）

Cobra

TREND INDICATOR MOMENTUM INDICATOR COMMENT (Click link to see chart) Long-term 3 of 3 are BUY     Intermediate 3 of 3 are SELL 4 of 6 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model is in SELL mode Short-term 1 of 1 are SELL 4 of 8 are OVERSOLD

BULLISH 2.4.4 NYSE McClellan Oscillator: Oversold. 0.0.6 Nasdaq 100 Index Intermediate-term Trading Signals: NADNV too high. 0.0.3 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: *NYADV oversold, ChiOsc a little low. BEARISH 2.0.0 Volatility Index (Daily): *Could be a Bull Flag in the forming. CONCLUSION

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING VEHICLE: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU ST Model 01/27 S 1.9 x ATR(10) Reversal Bar     NYMO Sell 01/21 S *01/28 High *Adjust Stop Loss VIX MA ENV

OTHER ETFs TREND COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided. QQQQ     IWM     CHINA Down Double Top or Bearish 1-2-3 Formation? EMERGING     CANADA Down Double Top, target $15.77. TOADV oversold. 1.5.2 TSE McClellan Oscillator: Oversold. Could be a short-term rebound, but the big trend is down. FINANCIALS   REITS   ENERGY   *Beware of Double Top. OIL     GOLD   01/29 Market Recap: *Rydex traders too pessimistic about gold. DOLLAR UP Confirmed Head and Shoulders Bottom breakout! 3.1.1 US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP 30 min): *ChiOsc too high, expect short-term pullback. BOND   Could be a Bull Flag. So yield could rise while bond should fall.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: MULTIPLE SUPPORT FOR SPX IS AROUND 1020-1040 AREA

 

2.0.0 Volatility Index (Daily), 可能是个Bull Flag，因此VIX可能还要涨，与之相应的SPX还要跌。

 

 

二月头几天的Seasonality不是很好。此外整个二月的Seasonality也不好。

 

 

3.1.0 PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP Daily)，米金的Head and Shoulders Bottom应该是confirm了，介个对大盘的压力应该很大。由于zero rate，米金已经是carry trade 的主力了，米金突然变强，carry trade就要unwind，就是说要卖掉股票套现以cover做空米金的部分。

 

 

综上所述，很大可能the pullback isn’t over yet。4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly)，Fib confluences area plus MA89 plus Nov lows，因此logically，the pullback target could be around 1020-1040 area。顺便说，介个图里的GDX and NYSI STO也都confirm intermediate-term down，注意了。 

 

 

最新的II Survey，牛牛是少了很多，可惜熊熊并没有增加多少，大部份都去了看correction的阵营。很遗憾，介个阵营虽然有不工作的时候，但整体看起来并不对牛牛有利。

 

 

SHORT-TERM: BEWARE OF ISLAND REVERSAL  

 

周一，有涨得可能，除了After Bell Quick Summary里罗列的理由以外，1.0.3 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 30 min)的Declines to Advances ratio继续减弱，可能是卖压减小的朕兆，因此牛牛有点希望。

 

 

0.0.2 SPY Short-term Trading Signals，不过，要小心，周一gap down且不补的话，就是个Island Reversal，那就从pattern上也confirm intermediate-term down了。（到目前为止，俺只有indicators confirm intermediate-term down，并没有很reliable的pattern confirm intermediate-term down。）

 

 

关于金子，看起来Rydex trader对金子太悲观了，因此可能金子要反弹，I’m not sure，因为在米金强势的情况下，金子能反弹到什么程度，no idea。

 

 

STOCK SCREENER:  For fun only, I may not actually trade the screeners. Since SPY ST Model is in SELL mode, only SHORT candidates are listed. For back test details as well as how to confirm the entry and set stop loss please read HERE. Please make sure you understand the basic risk management HERE.

 

louieca

IMeMyself

shafa

luren999

1# Cobra

darren168

Thanks

zpwang

偶已经等的眼都蓝了，老大辛苦了

oldfox

newyorker

Thanks a lot!

armorr

happyface

偶已经等的眼都蓝了，老大辛苦了
zpwang 发表于 2010-1-31 11:51

same here.

朱坚强

stocklover

whzdf

busywind

Thanks!

tortose

Thank you!

vivian7899

bendzhao

多谢班长

ddr

还要跌啊  

ppteam

1020-1040 太保守；第一下差不多

stocklover

same here.
happyface 发表于 2010-1-31 12:11

是基因突变吧？
洋人的股市凶险哪，同胞们用餐时要多辅以味精驱邪扶正........