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[转贴] PHK Carnage Continues: Who Smells Smoke?

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发表于 2010-1-5 12:01 AM | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式


The "rumor on the street" at the time of the dump in PHK a few days ago was claimed to be a "fat-fingered" trade.

Uh huh.

 

Let me guess. We've had three fat-fingered days in a row, right? The first one which was an honest mistake, and now two days of follow-up which were also honest fat-finger mistakes?

 

saupload_phk_new.png

 

Pretty impressive to lose all of the gains since October - in three days.

 

Of course this isn't being discussed on CNBS, nor the real reason for it, nor is anyone calling out those who disseminated the "claim" that this was a "fat-finger" mistake originally.

 

Yeah.

 

This is high-yield debt by the way. A PIMCO fund on top of it. Closed end, and yes, it does trade at a rather insane premium to NAV, but closed-end funds have a habit of doing that.

 

But gee, here we are in the New Year, the selling continues at ridiculous volumes compared to the historical average, and in a market where the DOW is up 160 points this issue is down another 5% today.

 

Who's whistling past the grave here? If there's a problem with the constituents in this fund then one has to ask if this is an "isolated incident" or whether it implies some really ugly things around the corner in the credit markets.

 

If you remember we had "little signals" like this back in 2007 - just before everything went totally to hell. Anyone remember this?

 

saupload_phk_2007.png

 

That's from 2007. There were a few "signals" in this fund during that year.... and of course we all know what came next.

 

If this is fund-specific then why is it showing up in DPO too - erasing all the gains back to JULY?

 

saupload_dpo.png

 

Uh huh. A 25% decline in less than 5 days eh?

 

I'll go out on a limb here a bit: The "fat finger" claim IS A LIE and there's something nasty brewing here that, as is the usual practice, has been leaked to certain "privileged" players in the market.

 

You're welcome to believe this won't infest and reflect into the broader marketplace. I believe, as has been the pattern over the last several years, one ignores signals like this at considerable peril.

 

You, the ordinary trader and investor, will never be "cut in" on the deal and given the opportunity to get out before the curtains are on fire and people start succumbing to the smoke, and those who both leaked whatever inside information there is and who traded on it will not go to prison for doing so.

 

Nor will the "mainstream media" investigate this and report on it. Not on CNBC, not on Bloomberg, not in the Wall Street Journal, NOWHERE.

 

Your only defense is to look for signals like this and get damn defensive when you see them - right or wrong - because someone who has more information than you do certain as the sun rising in the eastern sky is doing exactly that.

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发表于 2010-1-5 12:05 AM | 显示全部楼层
corp bond is in trouble? wtf
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 楼主| 发表于 2010-1-5 12:15 AM | 显示全部楼层
corp bond is in trouble? wtf
ppteam 发表于 2010-1-5 00:05


嘿嘿,都没当回事吧。俺把介个贴出来,看起来,还是屁鼻涕厉害,知道怎么回事。
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发表于 2010-1-5 12:37 AM | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 ypm968 于 2010-1-5 00:39 编辑

给你们看看rmbs今天的图, 俺的亲身经历。 在5分钟内, 从$25跌到$15, 没有任何news. 俺差点把我的computer monitor砸了, 还好最后涨回来了,不过我还是在收盘前卖了, 怕得心脏病。
rmbs.png
UPDATE 1-Nasdaq cancels some afternoon trades of Rambus
Mon Jan 4, 2010 6:40pm EST
Stocks

Rambus Inc.
RMBS.O
$23.23
-1.17-4.80%
12:00pm PST
* Canceling trades below $20.73 at specific time

* Shares close down 4.8 percent (Adds options trading details)

SAN FRANCISCO, Jan 4 (Reuters) - Nasdaq said it canceled a block of share trades of memory chip-designer Rambus Inc (RMBS.O) after the stock suddenly fell more than 30 percent on Monday.

The trades happened between 1:28 p.m. EST and 1:32 p.m. EST, (1828 GMT and 1832 GMT) at which time shares fell to $15.75 as nearly 1.5 million shares traded hands, or about a tenth of the day's total, according to Thomson Reuters data.

Nasdaq said in a note it will be canceling all trades priced at or below $20.73 during that period, and that the cancelations cannot be appealed.

While Nasdaq did not disclose the parties involved or the circumstances of the sell-off, the exchange said. "will be cancelling trades on the participant's behalf."

The share move was watched closely in the options market, where volume in the memory chip-designer was three times its recent average daily turnover, according to option analytics firm Trade Alert.

"As Rambus shares started to drop dramatically, its options activity started to pick up, notably its put options," said William Lefkowitz, options strategist at brokerage firm vFinance Investments in New York.

Investors often turn to equity put options, which convey the right to sell the stock at a fixed price within a specified time period, to speculate on potential share price weakness.

Rambus ended the day with about 57,000 calls and 29,000 puts traded, Trade Alert data showed.

Shares of the Los Altos, California-based company closed down 4.8 percent at $23.23 on the Nasdaq. (Reporting by Ian Sherr, additional reporting by Doris Frankel; Editing by Steve Orlofsky, Leslie Gevirtz)

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发表于 2010-1-5 12:43 AM | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2010-1-5 01:07 AM | 显示全部楼层
Similar event happened to DNDN last April. DNDN dropped from $25 to $7.5 without any news over 2 minute period. Unfortunately those trades were not canceled. Many little guys with stop loss orders got hurt badly.
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 楼主| 发表于 2010-1-5 01:07 AM | 显示全部楼层
给你们看看rmbs今天的图, 俺的亲身经历。 在5分钟内, 从$25跌到$15, 没有任何news. 俺差点把我的computer monitor砸了, 还好最后涨回来了,不过我还是在收盘前卖了, 怕得心脏病。
34719
UPDATE 1-Nasdaq cancel ...
ypm968 发表于 2010-1-5 00:37


PHK,连着distribution 3天了,不是交易错误。
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 楼主| 发表于 2010-1-5 01:08 AM | 显示全部楼层
2.png
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发表于 2010-1-5 01:30 AM | 显示全部楼层
thanks for the info. this is a high yield bond fund. premium is 38% ???  


fund holding as of 2009/09/30.

phk_holdings_20090930.pdf (28.35 KB, 下载次数: 35)
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 楼主| 发表于 2010-1-5 01:35 AM | 显示全部楼层
thanks for the info. this is a high yield bond fund. premium is 38% ???  


fund holding as of 2009/09/30.

34723
lite1067 发表于 2010-1-5 01:30


Thanks!
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发表于 2010-1-5 01:44 AM | 显示全部楼层
4# ypm968

给你们看看rmbs今天的图, 俺的亲身经历。 在5分钟内, 从$25跌到$15, 没有任何news. 俺差点把我的computer monitor砸了, 还好最后涨回来了,不过我还是在收盘前卖了, 怕得心脏病。


Good decision!!!
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发表于 2010-1-5 01:59 AM | 显示全部楼层
brutal!
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发表于 2010-1-5 02:08 AM | 显示全部楼层
bond in trouble, then where market goes?
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发表于 2010-1-5 02:12 AM | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2010-1-5 02:37 AM | 显示全部楼层
bond in trouble, then where market goes?
coexist 发表于 2010-1-5 02:08


I am thinking the same question, since high yield bonds move in sink with stocks.
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发表于 2010-1-5 05:25 AM | 显示全部楼层
34721
Cobra 发表于 2010-1-5 01:08


2.png

看来还得多观察几天?
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 楼主| 发表于 2010-1-5 09:48 AM | 显示全部楼层
34724

看来还得多观察几天?
itsme 发表于 2010-1-5 05:25


那当然。Divergence最讨厌的就是仅仅是warning,谁也不知道啥时候会工作。
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发表于 2010-1-5 03:10 PM | 显示全部楼层
强烈要求老大们全面的,深入的,把这个话题展开说一说,如果再有一两家象PHK的与公司债有关联的基金出问题,那么说了那么久的公司债危机可能真的要来了。
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发表于 2010-1-5 04:26 PM | 显示全部楼层
强烈要求老大们全面的,深入的,把这个话题展开说一说,如果再有一两家象PHK的与公司债有关联的基金出问题,那么说了那么久的公司债危机可能真的要来了。
面包车 发表于 2010-1-5 15:10


How about do your own research????
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发表于 2010-1-5 04:51 PM | 显示全部楼层
19# ranchgirl


Now doing it.
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