11# 随机行走
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Citigroup Shares Will Be Free To Get Fat Again
By TOMI KILGORE
A DOW JONES NEWSWIRES COLUMN
[Tomi Kilgore]
President Barack Obama may not be too happy with the "fat cat" bankers, but that's exactly what Wall Street seems to want them to be.
Citigroup Inc.'s (C) stock is likely to suffer further weakness over the short term as a result of shareholder dilution related to the repayment of Troubled Asset Relief Program capital and other technical headwinds. But once the knee-jerk selling and the taxpayer is out of the way, Citi will be free to become a fat cat once again, and that should be good for the stock over the medium to long term.
Remember that investors were initially unhappy with Goldman Sachs' (GS) plan to repay TARP as its $5 billion share offering announcement in mid-April was met with a 12% drop in a week. But keep in mind that plan was announced just a month after the stock market hit its bear market low. Eight months later, despite the Main Street backlash over the bonuses that TARP repayment allowed Goldman to pay its executives, the stock has gained more than 25%.
Bank of America Corp.'s (BAC) stock lost just 1.7% one week after announcing it's TARP repayment plan, even though BofA said on Dec. 2 it would issue $18.8 billion worth of securities convertible to common stock. Two weeks later, the losses have been pared to just about 0.6%.
Citi shares slumped nearly 5% on Monday after the company said it would issue $17 billion in common stock and $3.5 billion in "tangible equity units" (and don't forget secondary stock sales by the government). Given some technical headwinds, such as the recent break of a nine-month-long uptrend line and a pattern of lower peaks and lower troughs since late August, the stock could face further pressure over the near term, but not for long.
Standard & Poor's equity analyst Stuart Plesser said he viewed Citi's exit from TARP "positively," as it will ease compensation issues as well as reduce annual interest payments by over $2 billion. While share dilution is a concern, Plesser said it was in line with expectations and seems "already reflected in the stock price." The stock was at a four-month low of $3.76 in midday trading Monday, down 4.8% from Friday's close.
The 200-day simple moving average, which comes in around $3.65, should act as support for the stock, as it was the upside break of the 200-day SMA in mid-August that freed the stock to surge to multi-month highs. Even if that support gives way, the stock shouldn't get below the $3.25 to $3.30 range, as that level encompasses an upside gap in the charts created on Aug. 5 (the day's low was above the Aug. 4 high), when the stock soared 10% on record volume of 2.7 billion shares.
To erase the technical overhang, Citi's stock would need to first get back above the broken uptrend line, which currently extends to around the $4.15 level. Other key upside levels to watch include the 50-day simple moving average, currently at around $4.25 and falling, and downward sloping line, starting at the August high, that comes in around $4.40. ---- |