Retail discounting in the holiday season

AGA7d

There are leaked Black Friday ads from almost all the retailers. You can find those ads at various online buying-tip sites like fat-wallet, deal-news, slick-deals etc. There are people also discussing the deals at the forum - the theme for this year's BF is: not much is going on at the B&M stores.  Obviously, the retailers have been playing defensive ever since the market crash last year. Given the disappointing job and income data, they do not have high hopes on the sales and have a tight control on the inventory. Generally, they don't have to be highly promotional.

Of course, the 800-lb WMT is somewhat different. The volume mover thinks it is a good time to grab more market share by being more aggressive. It also has been quietly updating numerous WalMart stores to attract middle to upper-middle class. The next player, TGT, responded by matching price cut.

GS today removed TGT from its conviction buy list on concern of crimped margin. Personally, I think WMT will emerge as a winner in this holiday season while the department stores Macy, JCPenney and Dillards are likely losers. Khol's is somewhat special among department stores, it will do better than peers. TJX and Ross have been doing well ever since the recession began. Best Buy has nothing to show in its BF ads, so it likely will have a lackluster holiday too.