Gut Feeling

股帝

There is an old saying that,  the crowd is always wrong.

Well, in stock market,  it becomes "The Main Street is always being screwed by Wall Street".

Seeing that 3.2 trillion so called sideline money owned by the MS crowd, WS folks are trying everything they can to get those $$ back into the market so that they can screw the MS folks again. Those money, in their eyes, are their bonus money. And they feel that they are entitled to it.

One day, if you start to read the news saying that, the MS Joe and Jane start to move their money back into the stock market, and the 3.2 trillion is starting to get hot, be careful, that's the time that you should start to cool down your head and pull your money out.

It's exactly seeing that 3.2 trillion sitting on the sideline that, I feel quite comfortable to buy dip at this point.

The WS folks always tell the public, "Bull markets crawl a wall of worry". Now people are still worrying, so the market is inching higher and higher.

Makes perfect sense. Right?

The reality is, Bull markets crawl on stacks of MS sidelined money. WS folks are trying everything they can to convert those stacks of money into stocks.

Unfortunately, the crowd tends to unpack those stacks of money at the wrong time when they are hot headed. There are always times that, you say to yourself, "my gut feeling tells me that, I should buy this stock right now". And it mostly will turn out that, your gut feeling is very wrong.

The stronger your gut feeling is, the worse your loss will be.  Why? Because your gut feeling is triggered by your emotion and when you let your emotion get a hold of you in stock trading, you will lose your gut.

Well, I guess that's why they said, "To win in stock market, don't follow the crowd". By not following the crowd, you are literally sided with the WS folks and unconsciously, you are the handful of lucky MS folks who end up screwing up your own MS fellows.

On top of your TA and FA, don't let your gut tell you what to do. Following this rule will prevent you from making rash decisions. That's the only way that you can survive in this game.

xnz

first one

ranchgirl

Thanks for the teaching

hifive

ranchgirl

weigoodone01

It's ture, but what I am wondering is why this sideline money did not chase high in 2007 when the market is still hot?

nanosensor

Good thinking!

can2000

Thank you!

xiaochong

2# xnz

second, haha

kosh

happyface

thanks for sharing

trueself

1# 股帝

sequoia

太扯了吧？3.3 trillion平均到人头上不过8000块，指望大家把手头的8000块都拿去投资？尤其在随时可能失业的环境下。2007年10月牛市顶点时MM fund是多少？也是大于3 trillion的。

Win.Timing

股帝的要仔细听

dara

太扯了吧？3.3 trillion平均到人头上不过8000块，指望大家把手头的8000块都拿去投资？尤其在随时可能失业的环境下。2007年10月牛市顶点时MM fund是多少？也是大于3 trillion的。
sequoia 发表于 2009-11-13 09:47

good calculation.

It looks like $3.3T is not that much, hum?

Never calculated it before,  $8000 really is nothing,  if I look my relatives and friends in China, haha, they have way more than that number in their bank acct .

dara

However, just like GUdi said, WS MM and the news keep talking about this $3.2T and try to tell everyone there is a lot of sideline money and so it is always not later to chase high.

It may work or may not.

But it is really not that much money.

ByStander

太扯了吧？3.3 trillion平均到人头上不过8000块，指望大家把手头的8000块都拿去投资？尤其在随时可能失业的环境下。2007年10月牛市顶点时MM fund是多少？也是大于3 trillion的。
sequoia 发表于 2009-11-13 09:47

I remember that too. Even on 2007 market top, there were still over $3 trillions of so called sideline money.

Alchemist

buctusa

It is easier to say than done...................

dommy

1# 股帝


Ding!