Fed Balance Sheet & Money Supply...

X!nG

M2 Weekly Change $-6.5 B
Reserve Bank credit Weekly Change  $-33.2 B

Based on the latest weekly numbers on the Fed's balance sheet and on factors affecting reserve balances, the need for emergency liquidity facilities continues to decline. For factors affecting reserve balances at depository institutions, Reserve Bank credit dropped $33.2 billion for the week ended November 11 after dipping $5.4 billion the week before.

The fall in Reserve Bank credit was led by a $29.8 billion drop in term auction credit with central bank liquidity swaps declining $2.8 billion. There was not much lift in the latest numbers with the biggest component rise a mere $1.8 billion for securities held outright, which $1.2 billion was federal agency debt, $0.4 billion in mortgage-backed securities, and $0.3 billion in longer-term Treasury securities.

Total assets of all Federal Reserve Banks plunged $30.0 billion in the latest week after rising $3.5 billion for the week ended November 4. Total assets include holdings by the Fed for non-depository institutions.

trueself

1# X!nG


so? tomorrow will be an up day?

X!nG

1# X!nG


so? tomorrow will be an up day?
trueself 发表于 2009-11-12 17:07

Total assets of all Federal Reserve Banks plunged $30.0 billion in the latest week

你是不是没看到这句。。。

看到了还觉得涨吗。。。

kitten3

thanks

trueself

Total assets of all Federal Reserve Banks plunged $30.0 billion in the latest week

你是不是没看到这句。。。

看到了还觉得涨吗。。。
X!nG 发表于 2009-11-12 17:10

en。。。这次重点抓对了。。。

xiaoxin@ca

Total assets of all Federal Reserve Banks plunged $30.0 billion in the latest week

你是不是没看到这句。。。

看到了还觉得涨吗。。。
X!nG 发表于 2009-11-12 17:10

total assets减少是说cash减少了嘛？那花在哪里了？

X!nG

en。。。这次重点抓对了。。。
trueself 发表于 2009-11-12 17:13

你笑话我一直都是错的，因为没抓住过重点吗？哈哈哈．．．

Alchemist

trueself

你笑话我一直都是错的，因为没抓住过重点吗？哈哈哈．．．
X!nG 发表于 2009-11-12 17:17

你先借100个胆给俺

其实俺真的不懂那些。总是觉得市场的路就像人的路，人家也是自己走自己的路，让别人说去吧

Diffusion

Total asset of Fed = Sum of liability of Banks = Sum of money Banks lend from Fed

Total Fed asset dropped = Banks returns money to Fed = There is less money on the financial market (which is not necessarily the stock market, though)

Bulls view this as Banks are at better condition because they don't need money and so returned them

Bears view this as there is less liquidity on the market, so asset price will go down

usamonkey

Total asset of Fed = Sum of liability of Banks = Sum of money Banks lend from Fed

Total Fed asset dropped = Banks returns money to Fed = There is less money on the financial market (which is not n ...
Diffusion 发表于 2009-11-12 19:37

now interest is almost zero, so it should be more on bear side, right?

yaobooyao

Total asset of Fed = Sum of liability of Banks = Sum of money Banks lend from Fed

Total Fed asset dropped = Banks returns money to Fed = There is less money on the financial market (which is not n ...
Diffusion 发表于 2009-11-12 19:37

Fair and balanced explanation.  Simple and a good one.

Refresh some of my memories:

FED 的balance sheet 基本上左边是Assett （债券为主）， 右边是 Liability （发行的美金纸钞，bank reserves 等） ， 没有什么 equity。

FED 的 balance sheet 规模减少，等于货币供应减少。预示着liquidity 供应减少，美元应该升值，随之，股票、金、commodity 价格降低。当然，还要看政府的赤字规模增减。

Diver

sell before news, buy after news.

1# X!nG


so? tomorrow will be an up day?
trueself 发表于 2009-11-12 17:07

Diffusion

now interest is almost zero, so it should be more on bear side, right?
usamonkey 发表于 2009-11-12 20:03

Not sure. Could you show your logic?

manhattan

this means USD will go up?

Diffusion

FED 的 balance sheet 规模减少，等于货币供应减少。预示着liquidity 供应减少，美元应该升值，随之，股票、金、commodity 价格降低。
yaobooyao 发表于 2009-11-12 20:25

Agree. And also Treasury Bond. The short term rate will be peg by the Fed Fund Rate at near 0 level. But the long term rate will rise as price drops. So the yield curve will steepen.

usamonkey

Not sure. Could you show your logic?
Diffusion 发表于 2009-11-12 20:28

because zero interest,  if the bank think bull, they will borrow money to buy stock, not return them to the fed, right? because low interest

Diffusion

because zero interest,  if the bank think bull, they will borrow money to buy stock, not return them to the fed, right? because low interest
usamonkey 发表于 2009-11-12 20:46

Banks may not use this money to buy stock, it's too risky. It is reported that many banks use this money to buy Treasury bonds, which is considered safe. There are also reports saying that banks simply hoard cash without lending it out. Loan is considered safer than stock, but banks don't even want to invest on it too much. It's possible that banks lend money to hedge funds and hedge funds use the money to invest. Anyway it seems there is no direct relationship between bank returning money and bank's stock market view.

usamonkey

Banks may not use this money to buy stock, it's too risky. It is reported that many banks use this money to buy Treasury bonds, which is considered safe. There are also reports saying that banks s ...
Diffusion 发表于 2009-11-12 21:04

Thanks