to verify

janez

to verify.

风清扬

thx

wnd4

thanks

xnz

流动的建筑

Those are not necessarily the "smart money", which usually do not take the majority position.

Look at it another way, those who bet USD up already committed their money, i.e., their opinion is already priced in the market. To put it into perspective, the market direction is NOT determined by those who already committed, but those who will commit.

Regardless, I do think USD going up is a possibility, just not convinced by the evidence presented in the original post.

Based on the COT report for the week of Nov 6, commercial hedger is holding more long position (13439 coontracts) than short (9552 contracts). This means they are betting USD up. (translates to market ...
janez 发表于 2009-11-7 22:18

janez

Those are not necessarily the "smart money", which usually do not take the majority position.

Look at it another way, those who bet USD up already committed their money, i.e., their opinion is alre ...
流动的建筑 发表于 2009-11-7 23:25

Commercial hedgers = "smart money".  Just do a search on internet to read related reports /analysis. The amount of positions they held translates to  billions of dollars. They are the market makers. Go with them means go with the market.

dividend_growth

1# janez


Commercial hedgers are the ultimate "dumb money" in currency trading.

Please analyze your data before making conclusions.

流动的建筑

I wish trading is that easy... Only a year passed, people already forgot how "smart money" lost their pants. And, do you know that "smart money" were all bearish early in this year's rally?

The information is very helpful regardless. Thanks.

Commercial hedgers = "smart money".  Just do a search on internet to read related reports /analysis. The amount of positions they held translate to  billions of dollars. They are the market makers ...
janez 发表于 2009-11-7 23:30

Diffusion

No offense.

This is like breath. The more air you inhale into your lung, the more likely you are going to exhale it out.

cdf

RE: to verify [修改]

ranchgirl

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