10/15/2009 大盘回顾 （VIX Outside Bar at New Low）

Cobra

Summary:

VIX may drop further.

Could be a short-term pullback soon.

	TREND	MOMENTUM	EMOTION	COMMENT - Sample for using the trend table.
Long-term	Up		Disbelieve
Intermediate	Up	Neutral	No argue
Short-term	Up	Neutral	Yes!
SPY SETUP	ENTRY DATE	INSTRUCTION	STOP LOSS	Mechanic trading signals for reference only. Back tested since 2002.
ST Model I	10/14 L		10/06 Low
ST Model II				Stopped out short flat on 10/08.  No position held now.
VIX ENV	10/06 L	*Adjust stop loss	*10/14 Low
Reversal Bar	10/05 L		10/13 Low

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: VIX MAY DROP FURTHER

 

2.0.0 Volatility Index (Daily)，整了个outside bar，介通常是continuation的意思，就是说VIX还要跌，大盘还要涨。不过VIX是双刃剑，跌的太狠，就要小心大盘反转了。

 

其他没啥，维持1.0.8 SPX Cycle Watch (Weekly)标示的target。

 

SHORT-TERM: COULD BE A SHORT-TERM PULLBACK SOON

 

明天是OE day，不好说。不过有些short-term top的sign，因此明天如果还涨，注意套点利吧。

 

8.1.5 Normalized CPCE，介是主要看跌的理由，有点低了，虽然离过去的极端情况还有点距离。

 

1.0.4 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 15 min)，negative divergence比较明显，不排除明天就跌的可能性。

 

3.1.0 PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP Daily)，米金的黑棒棒也有反转的意思，所以可能反弹，这会导致大盘pullback。

 

1.1.3 QQQQ Short-term Trading Signals，黑棒棒表示short-term top不远的预言并没有完全破，今天又整了个有反转意味的红棒棒，所以还是可能要pullback。

 

INTERESTING CHARTS: NONE

 

Fan8an

沙发！

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thanks Cobra

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javamood

oh, still floor for me

asap

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etrade

1# Cobra