INTC的ER好，DELL却出了预警，说明什么问题？

goodness

DELL的top line应该还好，但是bottom line不行。为什么？都是促销造成的。一个行业薄利多销，总有赚得多赚得少的。所以我不认为INTC的ER能够代表整个PC行业的复苏。

fidofido

I like Dell's on-sale event

layschips

DELL的top line应该还好，但是bottom line不行。为什么？都是促销造成的。一个行业薄利多销，总有赚得多赚得少的。所以我不认为INTC的ER能够代表整个PC行业的复苏。
goodness 发表于 2009-7-14 21:56

dell面对的竞争太残酷？产品没啥特色？还是搞不定中国市场？
intel近乎垄断，这个没法比

goodness

dell面对的竞争太残酷？产品没啥特色？还是搞不定中国市场？
intel近乎垄断，这个没法比
layschips 发表于 2009-7-14 23:04

我不是要比较他们两个。作为产业链上的两个环节，有不同的表现，说明这个产业还没有在整体上改进。

flamesflames

是呀，intel的财报确实很好。看牛现在是站得住脚的，尤其是对下个季度的预期很好，可能经济真的变好了，只是我们没有感觉到吧。我也要转牛了。这跟银行的假财报完全是两回事。

goodness

是呀，intel的财报确实很好。
flamesflames 发表于 2009-7-14 23:36

确实。Netbook是个很赚钱的东西。不知道能不能和智能手机相媲美。

haoqi001

DELL has a record of declearing bad news in OE weeks, even right on OE Fridays.

dara

确实。Netbook是个很赚钱的东西。不知道能不能和智能手机相媲美。
goodness 发表于 2009-7-14 23:39

KAO, people actually buy Netbook? I would not take it for free, garbage.

happylux

1# goodness

Good question.

Intel's numbers show that PC makers bought more chips than expected in the quarter that ended June 27. Part of the reason is a pickup in end user demand, but another big reason is that customers have burned through massive amounts of inventory to save money, and now need to restock.

The No. 2 PC maker, Dell Inc. warned this week that the U.S. computer market might have hit bottom, but its sales to businesses remain weak. CEO Michael Dell said penny-pinching computer buyers appear to be holding on to their existing machines for longer than is typical.

happylux

更重要的是展望. 不知道intel的展望一向乐观还是比较反映事实？

xiaobailong

Sales fell 15 percent to $8.02 billion in the most recent quarter but also topped Wall Street's $7.28 billion average forecast by a wide margin.

销售明明下降了15%，为什么会被认为是好消息呢？

happylux

11# xiaobailong

比专家预期好。

逍遥山人

英特尔业绩佐证个人电脑销量反弹----华尔街日报

从英特尔公司(Intel Co.)最新公布的业绩看，一些厂商的个人电脑销量正在反弹，不过该公司二季度因一笔14.5亿美元的反垄断罚金而出现了亏损。这家公司很少发生亏损。

这家芯片巨头公布了截至6月29日的第二财季收入和利润率，这两项业绩比第一季度强劲得多。

英特尔首席执行长欧德宁(Paul Otellini)在周二的电话会议上说，虽然全球经济环境仍在恢复中，但从我们客户的订货模式看，他们的信心有所增强。

英特尔预计，当前财季收入将进一步增长，利润率也会进一步提升。这一消息传出后，英特尔股价在盘后交易中上涨7%，至18.02美元。该股在纳斯达克市场收于16.83美元。

英特尔4月份宣布，个人电脑市场已经触底，并暗示第二财季收入将与第一财季的71亿美元持平。分析师们当时预计二财季业绩会略好于该水平。

结果，英特尔公布第二季度收入为80.2亿美元，较一季度增长13%，不过仍较上年同期低15%。

利益率有了极大的提高。英特尔4月份时曾预计二季度毛利率在44%-46%之间，但周二公布的毛利率为50.8%。

英特尔的说法与戴尔公司(Dell Inc.)的言论形成了强烈对照。戴尔是全球第二大个人电脑厂商，仅次于惠普公司(Hewlett-Packard Co.)。戴尔周一预计，其利润率将出现萎缩，并于周二对分析师们表示，各家企业继续推迟技术采购。

不过，英特尔近来的销售情况与消费者开支的情况要密切得多，尤其是笔记本电脑方面的开支，而戴尔的销售主要面向企业。

欧德宁说，英特尔的笔记本电脑用微处理器的发货量强劲反弹，不过他也表示，用于服务器系统的芯片销量也十分强劲，原因是新一代Nehalem芯片刺激了这方面的需求，这种芯片在计算性能上实现了飞跃性的进步。

英特尔首席财务长史密斯(Stacy Smith)表示，公司减少了存货和员工数。他接受采访时说，我们进入第三季度可谓顺风顺水。

但也不是全都一片光明。英特尔一直在协助推广价格低廉的上网本。分析师们由此担心，用于这类产品的低价Atom芯片将会分流利润更高产品的销量。英特尔表示，即使不包括Atom，其平均销售价格也较一季度出现下滑。

另外还有欧盟的罚金。欧盟今年5月裁定英特尔在与高级微设备公司(Advanced Micro Devices Inc., AMD)竞争时滥用市场主导优势。

由于这笔罚金，英特尔第二财季的业绩变成亏损3.98亿美元，合每股亏损7美分，上年同期利润为16亿美元，合每股盈利28美分。

英特尔正在就欧盟的裁决提出上诉。该公司自上世纪80年代中期以来就没有出现过季度亏损。

Don Clark

dara

Sales fell 15 percent to $8.02 billion in the most recent quarter but also topped Wall Street's $7.28 billion average forecast by a wide margin.

销售明明下降了15%，为什么会被认为是好消息呢？
xiaobailong 发表于 2009-7-15 04:50

haha, That is how MM play this game.

To be honest, down 15% YOY is not anything superior, or even good.

But for Intel trading at 16 or 18 now, it is pretty fair. Intel did not participate the March rally that much

palm

polopolo

I don't know how you people read ER, but this is a strong ER no matter how you read it.

Revenue drop? Of course, the stock price also dropped a lot from last year (actually, more than 15%).

The key here is 12% Q over Q increase. Usually Q2 is a weak quarter. 12% increase basically confirms that "the bottom WAS in". Of course, there are a lot of ways to read "the bottom", because Intel also said a while back "we are resetting to a new low level and grow from there." So the upside is not huge from here. Maybe 20-22 bucks, that is all.

dara

I don't know how you people read ER, but this is a strong ER no matter how you read it.

Revenue drop? Of course, the stock price also dropped a lot from last year (actually, more than 15%).

The  ...
polopolo 发表于 2009-7-15 09:56

Well,  Intel earns about $1B each qtr,
Let's say it will earn more in the 4th qtr, so total earning is about $6B, so it will PE will be 17 at current price.

For company like intc, I do not see 17 is low PE at all

ByStander

DELL的top line应该还好，但是bottom line不行。为什么？都是促销造成的。一个行业薄利多销，总有赚得多赚得少的。所以我不认为INTC的ER能够代表整个PC行业的复苏。
goodness 发表于 2009-7-14 22:56

我想是这样:DELL是面对消费者,INTC是面对厂商.DELL的困境表明消费者仍在捂紧口袋.INTC的好消息是说厂商开始订货了.前段时间厂商努力消化库存,减少了从INTC的订货.现在库存消化的差不多了.所以这两条消息是说库存已经降低到厂商要增加订货(相对前几个月而言).这对经济会有正面的影响.但消费者仍捂紧口袋,所以说经济开始恢复为时尚早.

xiaobailong

我想是这样:DELL是面对消费者,INTC是面对厂商.DELL的困境表明消费者仍在捂紧口袋.INTC的好消息是说厂商开始订货了.前段时间厂商努力消化库存,减少了从INTC的订货.现在库存消化的差不多了.所以这两条消息是说库存 ...
ByStander 发表于 2009-7-15 10:11

另一个贴子里说，INTC销售增长主要是在中国，个人消费者领域.

polopolo

17# dara

Tech is a very seasonal industry, so Q3 and Q4 will exceed 1B by a lot easily. By the way, Intel operates in a high gross margin industry, which basically says they have a printing press, but the printing press itself is very expensive (in Intel case, equipments costs several billions a year). This is not unusual in high tech industry, think MSFT. But Intel is one of the few hardware companies that can do this.