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PF-07081532 and Danuglipron (GLP-1 pipeline drugs): PFE reported top line Ph1 data for PF-07081532 in adults with T2D, showing reduction in both mean daily glucose (79mg/dL on a placebo adjusted basis) and body weight (3kg on a placebo adjusted basis) after 6 weeks. We note that the commonly reported HbA1c is a measure to estimate three-month average glycemic control, while daily glucose is a measure of short-term changes. The 2Q slides noted that similar changes in body weight were observed in participants with non-diabetic obesity and the safety and tolerability profile consistent with GLP-1 RA class. See PF-07081532 Ph1 data in Exhibit 1 vs PFE's Danu and Novo’s (covered by Mark Purcell) Rybelsus. We expect additional data for both PFE drugs at EASD conference (Sept 19-23), which will provide further insights into the relative efficacy/tolerability profiles. PFE plans to move PF-07081532 into a Ph2b study and select the best asset to advance into Ph3 studies. We model Danuglipron 2030 unadjusted sales of $4.1bn which we risk adjust by 50% POS.
PFE EASD abstracts:
#114: Once-daily oral small molecule GLP-1R agonist PF-07081532 robustly reduces glucose and body weight within 4-6 weeks in adults with type 2 diabetes and non-diabetic adults with obesity
#588: Efficacy, safety and tolerability of danuglipron (PF-06882961) over 12 weeks in adults with type 2 diabetes
#589: Oral small molecule GLP-1 receptor agonist danuglipron (PF06882961) results in glucose lowering and body weight loss over 16 weeks in adults with type 2 diabetes |
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