Hmm, someone is checking my "fuzzy math". Well, I will thank him for paying so much attention to my post. But I believe my math is better than my Chinglish, I would be either a billionare or someone with just a penny with this "fuzzy math". If you look at this post carefully, I mean carefully, I cleared all of my long and added 40% of free money to short positions as of today. Well, that said, I am also not sure when this free fall will come. But my gut feeling is we are really close. On a safe side, I left some money sitting out, just in case SP500 goes up another 100 points.
As I have said all along, you have to have patience in this market and only trade with extra money. If you cannot survive without income for more than 1 year, I would say forget about making a few quick bucks. Save your money, you may be gobbled up by this market. Survive is key and wait for the next bull market. I have seen so many falling heroes. Being cautious may not get you to super rich, it sure won't leave you with nothing.
I am sure someone will laugh at my post with the SP500 to 400 level prediction. But with everything that I experienced and heard from older investors, I am 95% sure we will see that. When, I don't know. If I knew, I would have been on a private island somewhere in the Caribbean now. |