想赌一把JPM

wwwftp

从消息面上来说（见我上次的分析），JPM应该beat, 而且JPM一直经营比其他银行好，其他银行能beat，JPM照理应该能Beat, 股市和赌博差不多，赌JPM beat应该是大概率时间(60%),赌赢了30%的收获应该会有的。不过我现在都是C,我觉得C beat的概率是90%. C 目前是4.32, 今天不会再大涨了，转手JPM，ER后再转回C应该是最好的选择。犹豫中。

我觉得目前的分析是似乎在配合银行，C明显盈利，分析师还说是亏损，有配合拉高股市的嫌疑。

说明，我是新手，只是 交流一下自己的想法，请根据你自己的判断来做决定。

xiaoyaoxl

beat了也可能跌

高盛beat了吧，涨了么？

n748

some time it's not the published number, but the wisper number you don't know that matters.

wwwftp

高盛当时是涨了30%吧，今天跌应该是因为发行股份。还有一个问题请明白的人指点，我现在从C转手JPM, 分红应能拿到吧，我记得是应该在ER多少天之前持有的股份可以得到分红。

dara

高盛当时是涨了30%吧，今天跌应该是因为发行股份。还有一个问题请明白的人指点，我现在从C转手JPM, 分红应能拿到吧，我记得是应该在ER多少天之前持有的股份可以得到分红。
wwwftp 发表于 2009-4-14 11:17

that dividend means nothing, less than 0.25%, In 5 minutes, JPM stock price changes more than that.

xiaoyaoxl

你的数据有问题

现在ER的标准时WFC

高盛当时是涨了30%吧，今天跌应该是因为发行股份。还有一个问题请明白的人指点，我现在从C转手JPM, 分红应能拿到吧，我记得是应该在ER多少天之前持有的股份可以得到分红。
wwwftp 发表于 2009-4-14 11:17

q13117

>>> 分红应能拿到吧
0.01/share, you have to hold C until the end of this month. You can double check its history data from http://finance.yahoo.com/mo.

>>从消息面上来说（见我上次的分析），JPM应该beat, 而且JPM一直经营比其他银行好，其他银行能>>beat，JPM照理应该能Beat, 股市和赌博差不多，赌JPM beat应该是大概率时间(60%),赌赢了30%的>> 收获应该会有的。

Before you gamble it, do some homework for it.

Right now JPM is 32.60, 32.60 X 130% = 42.38. This is your target. JPM's resistance points are 34.00 (9/18/08 low, 10/10/08 low, now become resistance), 37.5~37.70 (11/13/08 resistance, 12/08/08 top) and 42.50~ 42.55 ( 11/05/08 top). Last thursday gap between 29.67 and 30.20 is not filled. From 03/06/09 at 14.95 and 03/09/06 at 15.05 JPM has kept up to yeaterday at 34.14 for one month and seldom takes a break.  You have to think over the ration of risk/return - fill gap then fly to your target OR fly to your taget then come back to fill gap then fly again OR fly to your taget then down OR can not fly to your target then down.

I have JPM long positions and I feel if JPM hits 37.50~37.70, it probably pulls back to fill that gap and support at approixmate 28.00 (12/2008 support) or 27.50~ 27.97 (02/2009 high).

Hopefully my post is helpful to you. Good luck to your trading

wwwftp

多谢你的分析，虽然有些手痒，但这种有些犹豫的事还是不做吧，还是持有我的C吧

>>> 分红应能拿到吧
0.01/share, you have to hold C until the end of this month. You can double check its history data from http://finance.yahoo.com/mo.

>>从消息面上来说（见我上次的分析），JPM应该be ...
q13117 发表于 2009-4-14 11:43