[我猜我猜我猜猜]周四如此大幅gap up，MM到底想要干什么？

mapleflow

其实周四的index gap up的幅度还不算夸张，finance那才叫一个恐怖，普跳15%吧。比如BAC chart上的一个大幅跳空，颇有高处不胜寒的感觉。这样大的手笔，显然是大MM所为。我只是在想，MM这样搞，意图是什么？我猜：
1. 显示牛气。给牛牛信心。但如果真的是bull market,没必要搞的这样过分，跳的这样高，大多数牛都来不及上船。想上的，也多半不敢上，尤其是中长线牛。
2. bull trap,应该不会。理由同上，没多少牛敢上船，所以套住了也没多大油水。昨天反而是解放了一些原来还在水下的牛牛。
3. 逼空。看起来效果不明显，finance这样拉，SP500才上850，又是节前，看上去能不能站住还很难说。大熊们也没有特别慌张。
4.bear trap。尾盘放空的人不少。可能。但是下周不做pull back继续gap up把熊逼疯?我觉得不可能。8000点阻力之强，不是靠这么个gap up就能轻松突破的。
5.下周初略做“健康”回调，把价格控制在高位，配合ER良好成绩，显示牛市氛围，让小散觉得上船机会来了，慢慢上船？等上满了开砸？可能性比较大，但这招已经用多了，小散也没那么好忽悠了吧。

我是青蛙，想不太明白。请各位HH说说，昨天MM这样搞，到底想干什么呢，如果你是MM,你会有什么意图？

大泡泡

想不明白就别想。 天梯式的上涨都没什么好事。

等你想明白了， 黄花菜都凉了。

X!nG

小弟建议：不要想象，容易wishful thinking，抢跑犯规容易死，不要让自己落入这个陷阱。

SAR

My observation on before hour trading of 04/09/09
starting from 8:00am, there 7.5 millions vol on spy and 7.5millions vol on xlf,  2.5million vol on qqqq, 150,000 vol, unusually high volumes for before hour trading. the major price goal finished in the first 45 min.
Of course people talk about WFC, also notice the following timing of that day:

International Trade
[Report][Star]8:30 AM ET

Jobless Claims
[Report][djStar]8:30 AM ET

Import and Export Prices
[Report][Bullet8:30 AM ET

Any experienced in HT share your thoughts?  Thanks.

mapleflow

我并没有让想象来指导操作的意思。大家都知道股场就是散户和MM的一场赌局，站在MM立场上想想，多些视角。

2brakefirst

有没有HH帮助分析一下呀？谢谢！

blueiris

不是高手，瞎猜一下。有日本银行前两天出事，MM是不是想在消息出来前，先把finance涨上去。周一市场有反应还有回调空间，不会太影响OE.

bayliner1979

1 week before OE is the perfect time to buy CHEAPEST puts and to sell MOST EXPENSIVE calls of this month  (if gap down yesterday then the story is on the other direction).   And a huge gap up/down is the cheapest way to do the pull-up/drag-down (the cost to move price is minimized).  

李隆基

1 week before OE is the perfect time to buy CHEAPEST puts and to sell MOST EXPENSIVE calls of this month  (if gap down yesterday then the story is on the other direction).   And a huge gap up/down is  ...
bayliner1979 发表于 2009-4-10 17:26

THE ONE 问候你！

ychen222

我怀疑分析一天走势的价值，从前几天的大盘指数波动范围看，我是没看出周四很特别。

centurynull

1. From last a few of week's price actions, it clearly indicated a breakout no matter how to interpret the market
2. Gap around resistance is the most conventional way to encourage the previously trapped position holders stay in the their positions.  Going up slowly will meet heavy selling pressure from previous position holders.
3. The 2 above does not mean market will go down after gap up, a market need multiple parties to participate, no market makers can buy all of the shares in the world

quietplayer

11# centurynull


well said.

恐慌小猪

琢磨它干吗呀！有时间塌下心来，好好研究研究个股，挣点钱是真的！

Diver

1 week before OE is the perfect time to buy CHEAPEST puts and to sell MOST EXPENSIVE calls of this month  (if gap down yesterday then the story is on the other direction).   And a huge gap up/down is the cheapest way to do the pull-up/drag-down (the cost to move price is minimized).  
bayliner1979 发表于 2009-4-10 17:26

jilier

Thanks !

mapleflow

谢谢各位老大，GS要发新股的消息传出来，基本上MM的意图可以理解了。短期市场还要牛啊，估计连盘整都会很强势，诚如watchman所言，都不会让散户舒服上船的，忍不住的都会被逼上船了。尾盘放空的，下周一能逃就逃吧。

WestCoast

I guess most of the Frogs want to do in the next step is the what MM wants.
So to resolve the question which you have asked is go to make a poll from the Frogs

不好意思

我猜就两种可能:一种下周一高开低走,一种下周一直接低开洗盘.既然是两种绝然不同的走法,(还有第三种那就是稍微低开然后走高,这种可能性小).俺就啥仓位也没有.等周一MM给了答复再来.
1# mapleflow

bagua2009