I don't buy WFC's number

老九

WFC's good number will not sustain.  That said, banks will generally do better in Q1 than Q4 08.  Why? 1) some banks have received AIG payments like GS etc. 2) lots of banks had a 90 day foreclosure moratorium at the end of last year which may have just ended in March. 3) low mortgage rates will temporarily fuel home buying and refinancing.

Right now, most major funds are not buying into the rally, in my mind still a bear market rally.  Several reasons, 1) too many bulls out there, 2) overall economy recovery not anywhere insight, 3) housing market is still flooded with empty houses, and last, it is just too easy to get out of this recession where everything points we may see Great Depression II.

As I said earlier, I will gradually pull out my long positions when the market moves up.  My target is S&P950 in 1-2 months.  After that I will not be in any long positions, but to load up short ETFs.  I just don't see any reason to be cheerful for now.  In the long run, I will for sure add some commodities because of inflation.  I foresee that we will continue a deflationary environment for about 2 years and then a hyperinflation, maybe even worse than the 1970-80s for another few years.  We are definitely in a secular bear market which usually runs 13-15 years.  There will be rallies or bull markets in those years, but overall it should go down.  Many people think we are in one starting 2000.

wox

Bank's earnings will be great, I heard after M2M change, the cats and dogs of American bank employee will be revalued as much as $50,000 as part of bank asset.

Lionking

Agree, I think rule of game has been change. "Good" earning is not a surprise.

小金

老调重弹，缺乏新意. 书生气，不实用.  逻辑不对. Logically, based on your points, why do you still hold LONG? why don't you short from here.

frankyV

1) too many bulls out there

I don't see any bulls here.

2) overall economy recovery not anywhere insight,

Consumer spending is increasing (BBY, BBBY ers).  Unemployment stabilized(60% layoff workers found jobs within three months, per CB report).

3) housing market is still flooded with empty houses.

Pending homes 25% less than the same period of last year (although sale price is down 20%). There is shortage in existing home market in my area and the realtor association calling people to put the houses on the market. My friend sold their home on the first day on the market.

老九

I am not shorting now because I know these banks may temporarily post better earnings and I want to unload my positions when I bought in early March.  But this kind of unloading will be gradually, because this is my principle.  I don't know for sure how long and how high this rally will be.  As I mentioned in my previous posts, the higher this one goes, the lower the next one will be.  If I see things getting worse, I will do what I did last May that is all out.  

There are no shortage of bulls in any recession till it is bottom.  This is true in the three recessions I experienced and well documented.  If you listen to the media, you will find lots of calls that this will end in Sept. 2009.  

Consumer spending is not up.  If you read the numbers, the sales are down, down and down!  Even Wal-mart is down.  US import is down means we are consumer less.  I don't want to go talk about unemployment anymore, time will tell.  

I want to say that hope for the best and prepare for the worst is always right.

johndai

Ding! Very good.

小金

I am not shorting now because I know these banks may temporarily post better earnings and I want to unload my positions when I bought in early March.  But this kind of unloading will be gradually, bec ...
老九 发表于 2009-4-10 09:42

三月份没看到你说买股票。从来没看到你在HT说买入股票。您一直不让买,现在才说3月份买了是不是晚了！下次老大买入时马上通知HT一声，俺师傅让我注意您的买入卖出点，也做个研究，看看是不是货真价实,听你的到底能不能发

老九

8# 小金


I have not joined till just 2 weeks ago.  Always watched but never had the urge to say anything.  But felt that too many people will get sucked into this rally.  I sold my SKF and most of my SDS in Feb which is a bit earlier but made enough.  I sold all my treasury positions before the Fed started to buy Treasuries.  From these proceeds, I applied about 40% in emerging market mutual funds early March which I intend to unload in May or early June.  I also bought some UYG, already unloaded 30% which is too early, some SSO, very few SDS.  I am also heavy on Inflation protected securities.  I intend to load FAZ when it drops to below FAS and load SDS when S&P reaches 900.  Of course, I will only use less than 20% of my total assets to buy those ETFs.  Majority will be TIPS and cash.  The reason is I still don't see big players in the market, all little and a few medium sized fish.

banker

no more 马后炮 please, give us buy-sell tips in real time. thanks

maple888

RedCedar

老九, Thanks for sharing your thought and your plan. We all know the market is crazy and
makes u turn daily if not hourly. Tight our belts.

老九

10# banker


Buy or sell all depends on individual's take on the current condition.  I told all my friends last May to avoid US stocks or reduce exposure, no one believed me.  Then I told my friends there will be a year end rally, try to sell into the rally, most of them still waited.  I then told my friends that the market is due for a big rally, a fool's rally, but do not get sucked in.  I am sure still there will be lots of people don't believe me.  Do your own home work.  There are lots of buy and sell suggestions here and there.  Don't follow anyone's suggestions, to buy or sell, keep a big picture in your mind, set your own rule of trading and try hard to stick to it.

老九

14# detectives


I am not any of those "guys or gods" you mentioned.  If you look at my other posts, you will find that I, too, make stupid mistakes.  But I am very happy that I can say without hesitation, last year I beat Warren Buffet by huge margins (percentage wise).  Everyone makes mistakes, it is how you manage mistakes that parts people.  That's why Warren Buffet is a billionare and I am not.  But, we may, one day, all become one.