所谓股市提前经济半年的说法从哪里来的啊？

herb

经常听到股市提前经济半年的说法，咋我看了不少数据都是表明股市和GDP要么同步到底，要么就是股市滞后GDP很久，很少有股市提前GDP的时候？

Bencat

Historical and statistic data.  check the economic data and SPX chart during Oct, 2002yr to March, 2003yr!

n748

don't believe those trash talk. Actually if you compare the unemployment rate with stock market, it has been always the case that market bottoms at the peak of unemployment rate.

Since unemployment rate is still rising, I believe we have not see bottoms yet.

The tricky part is it is hard to tell when unemployment rate peaks, because most people will expect its continuation of worsening when it's actually at its peak.

However, we knew that This rally was started earlier than unemployment rate reaches its peak, That is a fact now.