Mark to Market?

dilama

哪位老大有空给青蛙讲解一下什么是Mark to Market， 万分感谢！！

源济

Mark-to-market is an accounting methodology of assigning a value to a position held in a financial instrument based on the current market price for the instrument or similar instruments. For example, the final value of a futures contract that expires in 9 months will not be known until it expires. If it is marked to market, for accounting purposes it is assigned the value that it would currently fetch in the open market.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_to_market

adamgump

You live on a street in a neighborhood with 10 houses that all sold for 100 dollars when the developer started selling them.

After a year, one of your neighbors Wife was cheating with the mailman and the husband Shot her and the mailman in the house on your block.

He went to jail and the Family needed to dump the house. they put it on the market for 50 Dollars..

Now mark to market would say that your house and the other 8 homes on the block are also worth 50 cents on the dollar...

dilama

I see, thank you very much! We have to pray for our neighbors too!

xook

You live on a street in a neighborhood with 10 houses that all sold for 100 dollars when the developer started selling them.

After a year, one of your neighbors Wife was cheating with the mailman a ...
adamgump 发表于 2009-3-8 00:18

There is one problem in this analogy. If the house sold by the neighbor was actually worth more than $50, then numerous buyers would emerge and through an active bidding process, the house would have been sold for the prevailing market price($55~$110?). The fact that the house was sold for $50 is an reflection a depressed housing market and a good indication of current prices.

gldloser

You live on a street in a neighborhood with 10 houses that all sold for 100 dollars when the developer started selling them.

After a year, one of your neighbors Wife was cheating with the mailman a ...
adamgump 发表于 2009-3-8 00:18

我觉得应该是这个区大家突然都突然喜欢开枪互射了,然后房价现在变成50...

xiaobailong

You live on a street in a neighborhood with 10 houses that all sold for 100 dollars when the developer started selling them.

After a year, one of your neighbors Wife was cheating with the mailman a ...
adamgump 发表于 2009-3-8 00:18

是按照最后的成交价来算还是按照现在的出价来算？

在IB, 我买的股票都是按照最后成交价来算Market Value的，主要是流通量大，基本上买卖双方出价差不多。但是option是按照最新的bid/ask价格取中间加格来算的，例如卖方要价110，而买方说愿意出价90，那么Market Value还是100。

你举的例子，如果某个地区发生了凶杀案，毫无疑问会影响到房子的价格，因为这个区的治安变差了。从好区变坏区了。这就是好区坏区房子价格有那么大差别的缘故啊，这个是正常的，反映到邻居们的房子价格里面也是合理的，这正好说明了Mark 2 Market的合理性。

xiaobailong

如果没有Mark 2 Market, 可以按照以前中国的定价方式来算，全部是是国家统一定价，每平方米房子价格值多少，就全部是多少，在新的国家定价出来之前，没有升值贬值这一说。这也是一种定价方法，各有利弊吧。我觉得还是Mark 2 Market更好一些。

如果Obama取消了Mark 2 Market, 而采用国家统一定价，那就更加要被人说是社会主义了。呵呵。

xiaobailong

总而言之，现在是资本主义自由派经济不能自圆其说了。制度性的失败。

ByStander

There is one problem in this analogy. If the house sold by the neighbor was actually worth more than $50, then numerous buyers would emerge and through an active bidding process, the house would h ...
xook 发表于 2009-3-8 01:06

Many assets hold by financial institutions are rarely traded, therefore there may not have many buyers to bid the price up. Then the only available price to refer when you mark to market is the fire sale price. Which doesn't reflect the real value of the house (or asset).

xiaobailong

Many assets hold by financial institutions are rarely traded, therefore there may not have many buyers to bid the price up. Then the only available price to refer when you mark to market is the fi ...
ByStander 发表于 2009-3-8 09:56

有些东西确实很难定价, 例如那两个圆明园的兽头,如果拍卖成交了, 它们就值三千多万欧元.  
如果不能成交, 按照Mark 2 Market 的原则，它们的纸面价值就是上次两个类似的兽头的成交价格（似乎是几百万美元？）。要是不按照Mark 2 Market的原则呢，按照中国政府的说法，这两个兽头是应该无偿还给中国的。因此在现在的持有者手里，价值是零。

可是，问题是，这些东西，如果不是Mark 2 Market的定价方式, 那就只有国家定价一种可以被接受的方式了。那不是太社会主义了吗？总不能让它们都没有定价吧？

ByStander

有些东西确实很难定价, 例如那两个圆明园的兽头,如果拍卖成交了, 它们就值三千多万欧元.  
如果不能成交, 按照Mark 2 Market 的原则，它们的纸面价值就是上次两个类似的兽头的成交价格（似乎是几百万美元？） ...
xiaobailong 发表于 2009-3-8 10:07

There are other ways to calculate the value of an asset. For example, if a MBS (mortgage backed security) has a yield of 7%, you know in ten years the value of the asset will double. But because a bank went to BK last month and sold a large amount of the same asset , the price for that asset is pushed down to 50 cent of the dollar. Is that mean the asset only worth 50 cents of the dollar? Well, if you don't sell the asset now, it will still generate returns for you at 7% a year and in ten years your return will still be doubled. Someone may say if it's such a sweet deal, why there's no buyers for the asset. The answer is, because people don't know who's holding the same asset. If I bought it today and tomorrow another big guy who happened to have a lot of the same asset goes to BK, the price will be pushed even lower and that will mean a big loss for me in my next ER (thanks to the mark to market rule).

gldloser

如果这玩意实行了，就是他们对前一阵子的政策的否定，他们还想私人投资会购买拯救WS，如果M2M实行了，估计真想捡便宜的投资者就得三思了，谁知道买回来的资产下面有没有黑洞...

xiaobailong

There are other ways to calculate the value of an asset. For example, if a MBS (mortgage backed security) has a yield of 7%, you know in ten years the value of the asset will double. But because a ...
ByStander 发表于 2009-3-8 10:57

如果有这么多不确定因素，你怎么能肯定7%的年收益率，怎么那么肯定10年之后就会double呢？

如果真这么确定，肯定有好多人去买啊，别的不说，中国那么多钱呢，不知道往哪里投，只好买美国国债（至少这个是现在给出的唯一信得过的买美国国债的理由。）。 大家不买，就是因为这些东西，风险太大啦，和可能的收益不成比例。

举个例子，我有一样东西，我说值100块钱，可是，当然，我并不是那么肯定，因为，最低的可能呢，也许，这个东西一文不止，甚至说不定还要倒贴，然而也许可能，如果一切都很理想呢，当然就是值100块啦。现在，你愿意出一百块钱买我这样东西吗？你不愿意，好，没关系，我仍然把这样东西放在账面上，算我有100元的财产，直到某一天，一个傻瓜真的以100块钱的价格把它买去为止，或者直到某一天，我这样的财产太多，没有人再相信我的booking价值，那我破产，这样反正这东西值100还是0就无所谓了。你觉得这样可以吗？

而Mark 2 Market的方式呢，就是说，有人现在肯出50的价格买它，不管我卖不卖，那么我都只能在我的账面上登记我有这样东西价值50，而不是100。你觉得这样是不是比上面的方法更合理一些呢？

xiaobailong

另外要说的是，如果有一天，一个傻瓜真的以100块钱的价格把它买去了，那么按照Mark 2 Market的方式，这样东西就确实值100块了。

如果没有Mark 2 Market，每个人可以随便说自己手里的东西价值多少多少，例如我说我拥有太空中某星系某星座某美丽行星上的一块地一幢房子，你想想这个价值是多少啊，我只给它标价两万亿美元，超级大deal啊，有人抢购吗？有当然好，没有，没关系，只要帐做得好，纸面上，我仍然是亿万富翁，哼哼，比bill gates还有钱。

xook

Many assets hold by financial institutions are rarely traded, therefore there may not have many buyers to bid the price up. Then the only available price to refer when you mark to market is the fi ...
ByStander 发表于 2009-3-8 09:56

The irony is that when the times were good and RMBS's were trading above par, those financial institutions never hesitated to mark those assets to market because bonuses depended on them. Nobody at that time proposed market-to-"intrinsic value" or market to amortized loss even though they all knew those securities can't possibly be worth that much. It's "Heads I win, and Tails...wait there are no tails".

ByStander

如果有这么多不确定因素，你怎么能肯定7%的年收益率，怎么那么肯定10年之后就会double呢？

如果真这么确定，肯定有好多人去买啊，别的不说，中国那么多钱呢，不知道往哪里投，只好买美国国债（至少这个是现 ...
xiaobailong 发表于 2009-3-8 11:32

我只是举个例子。如果不是7%，那你说事多少才合适。这牵涉到很多东西。我想要说的是，在现在这种充满恐慌的时候，那些极少交易的ASSET现在的成交价格更可能是没有反应出他们的实际价值。

ByStander

The irony is that when the times were good and RMBS's were trading above par, those financial institutions never hesitated to mark those assets to market because bonuses depended on them. Nobody a ...
xook 发表于 2009-3-8 12:59

Agreed. Everyone wants to play to their favor. Actually I think those executives (or former executives) should give back the big bonuses they got in the past few years due to the inflated prices

xiaobailong

我只是举个例子。如果不是7%，那你说事多少才合适。这牵涉到很多东西。我想要说的是，在现在这种充满恐慌的时候，那些极少交易的ASSET现在的成交价格更可能是没有反应出他们的实际价值。
ByStander 发表于 2009-3-8 13:05

我的看法是，对这种东西，要么给个国家指导价格，大家按照这个价格来计算。但是这样就不符合资本主义自由经济的原则了，等于承认资本主义的失败。

要么就是Mark 2 Market, 看看有谁愿意出多少价格买，有谁愿意出多少价格卖。这样经过自由市场检验的买卖双方都同意的价格，就是你的booking value.

就像那两个圆明园的兽头，持有人说价值超过9百万欧元。 可是中国政府说这东西应该无偿归还中国。你说它价值多少呢？

maplayer

我的看法是，对这种东西，要么给个国家指导价格，大家按照这个价格来计算。但是这样就不符合资本主义自由经济的原则了，等于承认资本主义的失败。

要么就是Mark 2 Market, 看看有谁愿意出多少价格买，有谁愿意 ...
xiaobailong 发表于 2009-3-8 13:22

If Chinese government put a bounty hunter for anyone holding these two items, then it may be worth negative, because the owner has to hire security guards to protect him.