Equity Market Recap
U.S. stocks ended lower, spending the entire day in negative territory, but once again in a tight trading range despite a massive surge in energy prices on inventory data (lifting oily names) and central bank meeting news out of Europe. The European Central Bank left all three main rates unchanged (in-line with general expectations) but stocks slipped after ECB President Mario Draghi said they did not discuss an extension of its asset purchase plan. The ECB meeting comes ahead of the FOMC and BoJ meetings in two weeks, where markets are mixed in regards to potential actions expected. The NASDAQ snapped its 4-day win streak, led by a decline in AAPL (which also weighed on the DJIA) following an analyst downgrade. The lone piece of economic data today was positive, as jobless claims hit a 2-month low, which coupled with the non-action in Europe (ECB) sent bonds falling (and yields higher). We’re now at 43 days and counting now that the S&P has failed to close more than 1% in either direction – no volatility in the market remains (the VIX index remains near 52-week lows).
Commodities
Oil prices rise; energy futures led the commodity complex today after a large weekly drawdown in inventories was reported by the American Petroleum Institute (API) last night of 12.1M barrel drop. The Department of Energy posted even a larger weekly drawdown, saying stockpiles fell-14.51M barrels (vs. est. 905K barrel build), sending oil prices surging. Also a smaller natural gas build as rose 36 bcf in latest week vs. est. of 42 bcf build lifted nat gas prices. WTI crude ended higher by $2.12, or 4.67% to settle at $47.62 per barre
Precious metals slide, as gold finishes lower by -$7.60, or 0.6% at $1,341.60 an ounce, falling for a second consecutive session. Not helping today, the European Central Bank stood pat on rates and additional easing measures, as investors looked ahead to policy moves by other global central bankers. Gold had gained for three straight sessions before dipping Wednesday (recently touching a 3-week high).
Currencies
The dollar reversed higher midday, closing strong against the yen around 102.50 (off earlier lows of 101.41), while the euro pared gains after surging initially after the ECB meeting results. The euro dropped from highs of 1.1327 to close only slightly better at 1.1258. The British Pound extended losses after Carney comments yesterday...down around 1.33. Overall the dollar recovered following inaction by the ECB today at its policy meeting.
Bond Market
Bonds rolled all day, with the yield on the benchmark 10-year rising to its best level in a month, trading above 1.61% (up over 7 bps today), while the 2-yr rose to 0.77% and the 30-yr above 2.32%. Economic data was better today (after disappointing reports over the last week), starting the selling in bonds, but lack of action by the ECB today also sparked government-bond selloff that started in Europe. The yield on Germany’s 10-year bund rose 3.6 bps to negative 0.084%
Economic Data
Weekly jobless claims fell by 4K to 259K, a fresh 2-month low and below consensus for a reading of 265K (prior week claims unrevised); continuing claims fell 7K to 2.144M in the latest week, while the four-week jobless claims average falls 1,750 to 261,250
Sector News Breakdown
Consumer
Retailer related; group pares recent gains; LULU downgraded to hold at Jefferies as believe the athleisure trend is now starting to peak (says principal factors of buy rating factored in now); NKE downgraded to neutral at Piper as believe in the brand long-term, the resurgence of Adidas has taken a toll on growth; TSCO lowered FY16 EPS guidance to $3.22-$3.26 on comps of 1.0%-1.7% (was downgraded by several analysts on the guidance); BKS cuts comp guidance after sales drop more than views (shares of BNED also fall on its results); TLRD Q2 EPS and revs top consensus
Consumer Staples; more negative news in the grocer space after SVU cut its year adjusted Ebitda outlook to be down (5%) from year ago vs. prior view of down (-1.5%) and sees Q2 comps below Q1 figures; the group was weaker yesterday after a lowered outlook from SFM yesterday (KR also falls to 52-week low, WFM also active); MKC sees year EPS and sales growth at high end of view
Housing & Building Products; PIR shares tumbled after its CEO said he was stepping down and guided Q2 EPS loss/comp worse than estimates; homebuilders were generally lower with the market (BZH, KBH)
Casino, Lodging & Leisure; gaming stocks have done well of late, led by LVS which trades to 52-week highs recently; in leisure movers, boat supplier WMAR cut its forecast for the year; lodging stocks mostly lower (MAR, H, CHH, ESA, HLT, LQ)
Auto news; TSLA said it had entered into an agreement with Deutsche Bank whereby the electric car maker can borrow up to $300 million for its vehicle leasing program, part of a broader effort to bolster the company's finances; TSLA was also initiated with an underperform and $160 tgt at Cowen; in auto parts, JCI upgraded to outperform at Macquarie; Ford (F) said it was lowering year profit forecast due to $640M recall cost in quarter
Energy
Inventory data bullish for energy complex today – as energy stocks among leaders in the S&P 500 index today (shares of CHK, DO, APA, SWN, MUR, RIG all jump): 1) The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a 12.1 million-barrel drop in U.S. crude supplies for the week ended Sept. 2; 2) the Department of Energy posted even a larger weekly drawdown, saying stockpiles fell-14.51M barrels (vs. est. 905K barrel build); oil drillers outperformed (DO, ESV, RIG, NE)
Alternative energy; JMP Securities initiated coverage of the solar electric power industry as believe the industry faces some challenges during the coming 18 months, and there is both good and bad news for investors: OP rated on VSLR ($9 tgt), SEDG ($6 tgt), RUN ($8.50 tgt)…MP rated on CSIQ and underperform rated on FSLR ($32 tgt) and SPWR ($6 tgt)
Utilities; overall, utilities were little changed despite bond yields edging higher; NGG agreed to a three-year rate plan settlement for the KeySpan Energy Delivery New York and KeySpan Energy Delivery Long Island gas distribution utilities (RBC said settlement was a minor positive); FE requested revenue increase of $439Mm in Pennsylvania, CFO said
Financials
Large Cap banks and other financials saw a bounce late morning as bonds sold off and yields climbed to higher; the move, ahead of the FOMC meeting in two-weeks, helped lift prices of banks BAC, MS, C, along with regionals, brokers and insurance names
Finance & Lending; MA is facing a damages claim of GBP14B ($18.72B) on behalf of U.K. consumers who were allegedly charged higher prices because of the card giant's high swipe fees; ADS to buy WSM’s co-brand card portfolio
Healthcare
Large Cap Pharma; ABBV was downgraded to neutral at JP Morgan following recent strength and limited n-t catalysts, while the firm upgraded LLY to overweight based on the potential for new product driven upside to estimates in 2017 and beyond coupled with a favorable risk/reward into solanezumab data late this year
Biotech movers; CLVS advanced after being notified by the FDA it does not plan to hold advisory committee meeting to discuss the new drug application for Rucaparib; TKAI said it was reviewing strategic alternatives; RPRX said it Proellex was successful in mid-stage endometriosis study; RTRX tgt was raised to $40 from $28 at BMO Capital as probability of success for Sparsentan to 45% from 25%; TSRO moved higher on the day, as did LJPC (positive analyst comment)
CAR-T/Immunotherapy movers; JUNO said Science Translational Medicine published a paper showing encouraging results for patients in a trial for a drug similar to one Juno is developing for a blood cancer treatment; BLUE initiates late-stage Phase III study of LentiGlobin in beta thalassemia
Services & Suppliers; RAD advanced on report WBA may have to sell 500-1000 stores for RAD deal approval http://goo.gl/7IHpTT; shares of MDRX and CERN both downgraded to market perform at Cowen saying valuation reflects moderating long-term growth expectations driven by a more mature core EHR market and lack of new revenue growth opportunities
Industrials & Materials
Industrial & Machinery; NAV reports Q3 sales below consensus ($2.09B vs. $2.21B) and gets subpoena from DoD; industrial names leveraged to oil rallied today
Transports; in airlines, group paced gains yesterday in transport index (but mixed today); Morgan Stanley upgraded four Brazilian carriers, raising rating on CPA and VLRS to overweight and upgrading GOL & LFL to equal-weight; ECHO shares weak after negative comments by Spruce Point saying has 50%-60% downside; rest of group quiet
Metals & Mining; gold miners broadly lower, with declines in ABX, GG, NEM on gold; industrial metals have given up big gains from the summer; steel producer such as X continue to slide (X down 3.55% today), now down 31% from peak level of $27.64 back on July 29th
Technology, Media & Telecom
Internet; FB slides after touching all-time yesterday; AMZN introduces new Fire HD 8 starting at $89.99; TWTR slides amid board meeting today
Semiconductors; INTC said it would spin out its cyber security division McAfee, and sell a majority stake in it to investment firm TPG for $3.1 billion in cash http://goo.gl/Ci8zp2; MU said at Citi conference that revs and gross margin “at or near upper end” of views and “sustained momentum” into 1Q FY17
Software movers; APIC to be acquired by GOOGL for $17.40 per share cash in $625M deal http://goo.gl/9SMcvr ; GWRE Q4 results top consensus, but guides Q1 EPS to unexpected loss and weaker revs; ORCL was downgraded by OTR Global saying cloud migration is causing uncertainty; BV rises as Q1 EPS and revenue topped consensus estimates; VRNT up on earnings; FNSR down today ahead of earnings (snapping 4-day win streak), but coming off 52-week high yesterday after better guidance from comps in space of late (AAOI most recent yesterday)
Hardware movers; AAPL downgraded at Wells Fargo saying risk/reward balanced given limited visibility and recent share strength; HPE results missed on revenues but were largely in line on EPS due to better than expected margins/announced an $8.8 billion deal to spin off and merge its software operations http://goo.gl/m2Y35Q
Media & Telecom movers; QVCA shares saw increased volatility to the downside after speaking at the Goldman Sachs conference today; NLSN shares were under pressure; LMCA said it is buying 18.7% of Formula One in $4.4B deal; SAIC moves higher on mixed Q2 results |
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