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Closing Recap
Friday, September 2, 16
Index Up/Down % Last
DJ Industrials 72.42 0.39% 18,491
S&P 500 9.11 0.42% 2,179
Nasdaq 22.69 0.43% 5,249
Russell 2000 12.02 0.97% 1,251
Equity Market Recap
U.S. stocks end the week strong, posting gains following a soft August jobs report, suggesting that the Federal Reserve may hold off on hiking interest rates when policy makers meet on September 21st. However, the market pared gains midday on profit taking ahead of the long holiday weekend. All three major benchmarks posted weekly gains of about 0.5%, led today by gains in energy stocks, as crude rallied 3% (paring its weekly loss to under 7%). The U.S. added 151K jobs, below estimates of 180K while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.9% Despite Fed fund futures dropping to under a 20% chance for a September rate hike, Goldman Sachs said the weak payrolls is "just enough for September hike", and raises odds from 40% to 55% (explains why we saw a reversal to downside in bonds – yields jump – and the dollar reverse higher). It has been a tough week of data for the U.S. economy (jobs today, weak ISM yesterday), as well as weak industry reports (autos and retail sales disappointed), making it a little more difficult to think the Fed may act in September after saying they remain data dependent. Though comments recently from the Fed’s Yellen, Fischer and Lacker indicate they may indeed be ready.
Economic Data
The U.S. added 151K jobs in August, below expectations for an increase of 180K, and slowing sharply from earlier in the summer (private payrolls added were 126K vs. est. 180K), while the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.9% (est. was for a drop to 4.8%). Wages disappoint, as average hourly wages rose 0.1% to $25.73 (below estimate for a 0.2% increase). Total employment gains for July and June, meanwhile, were barely changed. The government said 275,000 new jobs were created in July instead of 255,000; June's gain was cut to 271K from 292K
The U.S. trade deficit narrowed in July to (-$39.5B) from (-$44.7B) in the prior month, falling (-11.6%) in Jul; trade deficit excluding petroleum at $34.49b in July; imports fell 0.8% in July to $225.81b from $227.58b in June; exports rose 1.9% in July to $186.33b from $182.92b in June
Factory Goods Orders rise 1.9% in July vs. est. up 2% while June revised down to -1.8%; new orders ex-trans. for July rise 0.2% and new orders ex-defense for July rise 1.5% after falling 1.6% in June; Durables orders for July rise 4.4% after falling 4.3% in June
Commodities
Crude oil prices ended higher, as WTI posted gains of $1.28 to settle at $44.44 per barrel, up over 3% on the day. Prices were lifted overnight after Russian President Vladimir Putin said he wants OPEC and Russia to reach deal to freeze supply, w/exemption for Iran. Concerns about the impact on Hurricane Hermine also likely played a part in oil strength today (U.S. reported storm had shut in 12% of Gulf of Mexico output). Today’s gains help cut the weekly loss for WTI to 6.7%.
Gold prices closed higher by $9.60, or 0.7% to settle at $1,326.70 an ounce, posting a 0.1% gain for the week. Gold prices initially benefitted from a weaker jobs report, sending the dollar lower and commodity prices higher on reduced rate hike expectations by the Fed. However, gold managed to hold its gains despite the dollar recovering off the lows to close higher.
Currencies
It was a volatile day for the U.S. dollar, trading flat overnight, only to plunge in the moments after the BLA reported monthly jobs data that came in below estimates (151K added jobs vs. 180K est.), then recovering quickly vs. other currencies to end the day higher. The euro jumped to highs of 1.1252 against the dollar after the data, before ending the day near the lows around 1.156. Same can be said for yen action, as the dollar slid to a low of 102.80 after the report, then spiking to highs of 104.32 before paring gains (best levels since the end of July).
Bond Market
Bonds ended lower on the day, as the yield on the benchmark 10-year climbed to 1.60% in what was volatile intraday trading…but the yield still remains within its recent trading pattern range. Treasury yields hit 1-week high after weak jobs report sparks a stock rally, as the weak number lowered September rate increase expectations (though December still 40% better chance). Yields had initially fallen right after the employment report showed the pace of hiring in the U.S. slowed sharply, but was short lived (10-year went from 1.54% to 1.62%). Yields had jumped to a two-month high last week, after Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen indicated at least one rate increase is on the cards this year, but retreated this week in choppy trade. The yield on the 2-yr note was little changed by days end at around 0.79%
Macro Up/Down Last
WTI Crude 1.28 44.44
Brent 1.38 46.83
Gold 9.60 1,326.70
EUR/USD -0.004 1.1157
JPY/USD 0.72 103.95
10-Year Note 0.023 1.596%
Sector News Breakdown
Consumer
Retailers; LULU slides as Q2 EPS and revs in-line (38c/$514M), but comps of 5% misses 5.9% view, while guidance outlook was mixed (shares also up 45% YTD coming into earnings); GPS August comp sales fell a greater (-3%) vs. est. (-2.4%), led by declines in Banana Republic; VFC shares slip after downgrade at Buckingham Research; UA slides as CEO enters plan to sell shares
Gun stocks; SWHC shares fall despite posting strong earnings/guidance, as Craig Hallum downgraded shares as thinks the current environment is as good as it gets for firearms demand (shares of RGR were also active); also weaker monthly firearms data from NICS midday
Leisure movers; cruise liner CCL downgraded to underweight and tgt cut to $48 saying monthly agents survey suggests cruise demand weakened in August, with prices also softening (shares of other cruise lines RCL and NCLH were also under pressure today)
Energy
Energy stocks were among the top performers today, led by a bounce in oil prices after Putin comments, while more rigs were added according to Baker Hughes rig count. Overnight, oil prices recovered from prior day declines after Russian President Vladimir Putin said he wants OPEC and Russia to reach deal to freeze supply, w/exemption for Iran (said expects dispute over Iran’s participation can be resolved); said Russia is ready to take part in talks w/ OPEC in Algiers
Baker Hughes (BHI) said its weekly total rig count rose 8 to 497 (after slipping 2 the prior week), with the bulk of adds coming for gas rigs which rose 7 to 88 (fell 2 week before), while only adding 1 oil rig to 407 in latest week (was steady the week prior)
Movers on news; PES upgraded to buy at Jefferies with Street high $6 target; oil drillers jumped, led by NE, RIG and ESV, while DO remains under pressure, after lost PBR Ocean Valor drilling contract yesterday; refiners also gained on day
Financials
Large Cap banks decline, giving back gains heading into the jobs number today (WFC up 4.5% last 5-days into jobs), after payrolls data misses and reduces fed fund futures chance to only 14% that the Fed may hike in September (shares of other banks (GS, JPM, WFC, C) as well as insurance (MET, PRU) and other sectors as trust banks, brokers were weaker; European banks (BCS, DB, UBS also posted gains on the session)
Healthcare
Large Cap Pharma; MRK said it was discontinuing the development of odanacatib, its investigational cathepsin K inhibitor for osteoporosis, and will not seek regulatory approval for its use (citing a numeric imbalance in adjudicated stroke events); BMY slipped after Bernstein said thought BMY's Opdivo had a good chance of getting a "compendia listing" for pending subgroup analyses of the failed Checkmate-026 trial…but said view has changed
Generic drugmakers; TEVA was upgraded to Outperform with a $66 target at Oppenheimer; generics active again (MYL) as Hillary Clinton to propose "consumer response team" to monitor drug price hikes, levy financial penalties (shares of ENDP, MNK, VRX moved lower on proposal)
Biotech; BIIB provided an update from Phase 1b study of Alzheimer’s drug aducanumab which Jefferies said suggests company is seeing positive efficacy and safety in additional titration groups, and expects upside to shares; DVAX shares fell midday after FDA says advisory panel meeting on its Heplisav-B hepatitis B vaccine was canceled to allow time for the agency “to review and resolve several outstanding issues.”
Healthcare services, equipment; COO Q3 top and bottom line topped consensus, while narrowed its year EPS view (but raised midpoint)
Industrials & Materials
Transports pare gains, the index up 0.5% after touching week high of 7995 (came close to 8,000 level for Dow Transports - has not been above that level since July 20th...KEX and MATX led index higher while rails lag (KSU, UNP)
Airlines; some airlines report monthly metrics, as DAL said August PRASM fell (-9.5%), cutting 2-points as last month’s computer failure caused more than 2,100 flight cancellations (which hurt Aug revs by about $100M, or about 2 points of Prasm) – said traffic was down (-2.8%); ALK said August group traffic rose 9% and capacity was up 10.3%
Metals & Mining; were among the top performing sectors today led by a jump in gold prices (reduced rate hike expectations) as NEM, ABX, AUY, GG rise; industrial metals reversed lower midday, led by a decline in steel producers (X, NUE, AKS) after earlier gains
Technology, Media & Telecom
Internet; VRSN shares outperformed in the S&P 500 index after Cowen said they estimate co is tracking to ~1.1m net domain (.com/.net) adds for 3Q and after the DOJ posted a response to Senator Cruz's letter which they believe may indicate a material adverse outcome not very likely; MELI upgraded to overweight at JP Morgan and ups tgt to $200 from $133
Semiconductors; AVGO Q3 EPS and revs topped consensus, while guidance for revs and margins also strong/few analysts note that set-top issues are overshadowing a big iPhone 7 ramp (stocks had a good run-up into earnings); HIMX tgt raised to $12 at Nomura noting the company been able to raise its prices for its liquid crystal on silicon; STM was downgraded to underperform at Bank America; AMBA falls Q2 EPS/revs/margin beat – stock off 11-month highs into earnings; overall, the semiconductor index (SOX) touched fresh 16 year highs earlier at 811.19
Hardware; Samsung launched a voluntary global recall of its new Galaxy Note 7 smartphone due to a potentially dangerous battery flaw in a few devices/halted sales after receiving reports from customers of batteries exploding during charging; CIEN downgraded by two analysts after earnings results and valuation
Software movers; SEAC shares dropped after reported weak quarterly results and guided down; video game stocks EA and ATVI traded near 52-week highs today; PAY shares plunge after quarterly results and sharply lowered its yearly profit/rev outlook |
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