Those who said, "sell in May and go away" didn't do so well.
Now a lot of people are saying to sell in August. Before we just go off following the crowd, let's go step by step.
- The 8 day moving average is $216.54- if you are micro trader, you get out with a close below that.
- If you are more of a swing trader, use $215.30.
Otherwise, stay the course.
We have pivot resistance at $217.54. A trade and close above that, look for continuation towards $220, or a big Red Dog Reversal (RDR) with that pivot to give a clue.
We'll also want to see oil hold last week's low.
Oil Update:
Oil bounced off its 200 day m.a. on Friday and judging by the outsized moves on many names in the sector such as CLR (flagged in this morning's report as vulnerable) and CXO which left large range outside up days (to mention a few), it looks like many players suspected oil was going to make a V Bottom at its 200 day.
However oil is right back down today despite a retreat in the dollar and it looks like our 38/39 square-out level is magnetizing oil lower---assuming this is part of a constructive pullback if that level holds.
Today's downdraft in many energy names following Friday's sharp turnup puts the possibility of a Hook, Line & Sinker bearish pattern short term on the table.
So we could see some fast, climactic action in coming sessions in the group especially if oil snaps 40 which was a key level on the way down early this year.
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