Latest Brexit phone poll has Remain ahead but it's not quite that simple

trend

Latest Brexit phone poll has Remain ahead but it's not quite that simple
Sat 18 Jun 2016 12:06:21 GMT Author: Mike Paterson | Category:  News
Author: Mike Paterson

share
BMG Research have published their final EU Referendum poll results 18 June 2016

I gave the heads up to watch out for this delayed poll result yesterday and as JG points out in the comments section here it may well have been leaked and had some impact late in NY trading.

final phone poll for the Scottish Herald has Remain on 53.3% vs Leave on 46.7%
including the undecided (Don't know/prefer not to say : Remain 46% vs Leave 43%. Undecideds 11%
online poll has Leave 55% Remain / Leave 45%
Important to look beyond the headline here and read the BMG Research results in more detail given that the Undecideds still hold the balance of power.



Say BMG:

Online Poll shows large shift to Leave
BMG's Online EU Referendum tracker shows big shift to Leave, now on 51%(+6), and Remain down 2pts on 41% (DK/PNTS = 9%).

Labour support critical for remain.
Labour supporters could easily be deciding factor, even staying at home may hand referendum to Leave. Labour are more than two-to-one in favour of remaining in the EU, but if a significant minority end up staying at home, it could be the tipping point that secures victory for the Leave camp.

A class divide.
There is a strong class divide, with those in higher occupational classes (AB or C1) far more likely to vote to remain (AB = 58% Remain, C1 57% Remain excluding DKs), whereas those from the lowest social grades are backing brexit with much greater conviction (DE = 57% Leave). C2 on a knife-edge.

Job security a factor?
Those aged 65+ and those retired favour brexit (58% and 56% for Leave respectively), whereas younger people and those both in work and looking for work strongly in favour of remaining (18-24 64% for Remain).

Full report here

When all's said and done though a poll is a poll and the real result is the only one that matters and yet to be known. The Undecideds ( of which I am still one) still hold the balance of power.

With more polls due to be released up until the 23 June vote the pound will continue to be at their mercy, for both bulls and bears.

源济

ranchgirl

Leave or NOT to leave?

风行过

ranchgirl 发表于 2016-6-18 01:21 PM
Leave or NOT to leave?

莎氏知道答案？

Hutong9999

trend

EU referendum polls and odds: Remain boost sends pound and stocks soaring
Jun 20, 2016
Sterling sees best one-day performance in past decade as surveys show an expected 'late switch back to the status quo'

Image 1 of 22
Credits
Carl Court/Getty Images
Description
OUT: Employment Minister Priti Patel
"We are a great nation and next week, we have the once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to be even greater."
Page 1 of 9EU referendum polls and odds: Remain boost sends pound and stocks soaring
A snap back towards the Remain camp ahead of the EU referendum has boosted stocks and the pound.

The Financial Times notes that sterling was 1.9 per cent up at its peak in overnight Asian trading, which would mark the biggest one-day gain since a 2.4 per cent leap in December 2008.

SEE RELATED
EU referendum quiz: How much do you know about the European Union?
EU referendum: The celebrities voting for and against Brexit
How to register to vote in the EU referendum before tonight's deadline
The pound was still 1.6 per cent up at around 9.15am in London this morning, standing at $1.46 against the dollar. This would still rank as one of the best one-day performances in the past decade and the strongest advance since October 2009.

The rise is just one part of a major "risk-on" rally around the world, which has seen the FTSE and other European stock markets surge two per cent this morning and sent oil back to around $50 a barrel.

It's all in response to polling and betting odds showing a return to form for the Remain camp after two weeks during which Leave appeared to have moved into a potentially decisive lead.

According to the BBC referendum poll tracker, three online surveys conducted by Opinium and YouGov at the weekend showed the race too close to call. In one, Remain was up one point, another had Leave up two points while in the third, the two camps were neck and neck.

The FT's poll of polls now has the two sides locked together on 44 points - on Friday, it gave Leave a lead of five points.

"Historically, referendums have tended to show a late swing to the status quo," said Michael Spies, an analyst at Citigroup, suggesting that the majority now favoured a vote to stay in the EU.

Pollsters have consistently said undecided voters could split two-to-one in favour of Remain, which could be a conclusive shift in a close vote.

All of this has meant that betting odds have also shifted back in favour of an In victory this week. Ladbrokes' odds tracker now puts the chances of Brexit at 27 per cent, back where it was last month, during a Remain surge.

Nigel Farage, the leader of UKIP and the unofficial Leave.EU campaign group, pointed to the killing of pro-Remain MP Jo Cox as stalling pro-Brexit "momentum", although most of the latest polls were taken before the attack.

However, as Cox's death has focused attention on the nasty side of the debate in the referendum, including a controversial Ukip anti-refugee poster unveiled by Farage on Thursday, there are many who believe the tragedy may reflect badly on Leave.

EU referendum polls and odds: Businesses fear Brexit hit

17 June

More EU referendum polls have confirmed a major swing in momentum to the Leave campaign, less than a week before the country goes to the ballot box.

The BBC's Peter Barnes says that two surveys from Ipsos Mori and Survation yesterday gave Brexit a lead of six and three points respectively. The results are particularly striking "because they're both telephone polls conducted by companies who have previously had Remain ahead", he says.

SEE RELATED
EU referendum quiz: How much do you know about the European Union?
EU referendum: The celebrities voting for and against Brexit
How to register to vote in the EU referendum before tonight's deadline
This continues a big Out boost in recent weeks. The latest Financial Times poll of polls has the campaign up by five points, at 48 to 43 per cent, after six surveys in a row gave it a lead.

As a result, the betting odds on the UK voting to leave the EU are narrowing – but notably, and despite huge sums being placed on a Brexit vote next week, Remain is still priced as the favourite. Ladbrokes now puts the implied chance of a Leave win at 34 per cent.

All of this has some in the business community spooked. A survey by Charterhouse Research of 3,394 bosses, reported in The Guardian, shows more than a third (35 per cent) are worried about the economic hit that would result from an Out vote next Thursday.

This is well ahead of the quarter of respondents (25 per cent) who believe the economy will benefit from a vote to leave the European Union. The largest group (39 per cent) think there will be no difference.

More businesses in every size bracket believe there will be ill-effects than an economic boost. Owners of larger companies with more than ￡25m turnover are the most worried, with 62 per cent predicting negative consequences against just eight per cent who think Brexit will be a boon.

Company bosses in London and Scotland are most worried about a vote to leave, while those in the Midlands and east of England, as well as the north, are the most sanguine.

Still firms in every UK regions think Brexit would be negative for the economy than positive, however.

EU referendum's polls vs odds: Is UK heading for Brexit?

15 June

SEE RELATED
EU referendum quiz: How much do you know about the European Union?
EU referendum: The celebrities voting for and against Brexit
How to register to vote in the EU referendum before tonight's deadline
Eight days before the EU referendum, the latest poll of polls puts Brexit ever so slightly in the lead.

Run by NatCen Social Research, the comprehensive study takes into account the average of the six most recent surveys, carried out between 9 and 13 June, when "don't knows" are ruled out.

Results from the latest surveys suggest that 52 per cent support Brexit and 48 per cent would like the UK to remain in the EU. Just two days ago the two sides were exactly 50:50.

Four of the six polls put Leave in the lead, while only two support Remain.


The latest YouGov poll, published in The Times yesterday, gives Brexit an eight-point lead, without the "don't knows", the largest lead for Leave in the pollsters' surveys since the start of the campaign.

"A clear majority of voters want Britain to quit the European Union," says The Times.

However, when the undecideds are taken into account, it is also clear many people are not yet sure how they will vote on 23 June. In the YouGov survey, for example, 15 per cent have yet to decide which side to support.

What are the odds of Brexit?
Remain's lead has shrunk to its lowest level at the bookmakers since polls began to show a lead for Brexit. At 3pm on Wednesday, more than a dozen bookies were giving 8/15 odds on the UK staying in the bloc, while many were offering 6/4 odds on Leave.

What about the markets?
Brexit fears have shaken the markets, with ￡100bn wiped off Britain's biggest companies in just four days as the polls veered towards Leave. As investors offloaded risky equities in favour of safe-haven assets, the FTSE 100 yesterday saw its steepest daily fall since mid-February, with the blue chip index dropping below the 6,000 level.

"Across the continent investors suffered a similar fate as shares plunged on most bourses, taking losses on the Eurostoxx 600 over the last five days to