Trading Plan for 03-16

luckystar2006

3 consecutive down gaps?  hm....  this is not a very good sign within a bull-trend.  Let's see how market close today before making any further speculation.  I think this down gap will be filled today (just a feeling).

FOMC day means it's a showcase time until 3pm.  I usually won't make a move until 3pm.  Will play game, doing gym or watching TV for now, but I might go in/out for a quick scalp trade if I see any opportunity.

ysc

novice_trader

每天必读！谢赐教！

luckystar2006

Gap is closed.  There should be at least one to few more small up legs before FOMC showcase.

luckystar2006

I received a few PMs asking me whether or not it's time to short and about VIX etc...  I think it'd be easier for me to address your PMs all at once by using a chart so you all see what I see.

Upper BB from VIX crossing below MA-50 can be used as an early warning signal, but it does not provide the perfect timing entry point.  With VIX making a new low today, it's fair to say that SPY will make a new high soon?  Therefore, it's one of those few signs to suggest now is not the right time to short for short-term yet.  So, let's be patient for now.

jukifox

luckystar2006 发表于 2016-3-16 09:04 AM
I received a few PMs asking me whether or not it's time to short and about VIX etc...  I think it'd  ...

谢谢分析！

luckystar2006

Honestly speaking, small BB shows VIX is clearly breaking down and hence, it's a bullish sign for market.  So, I guess a higher high ahead is imminent?

jukifox

其实要是结合MACD就能更好的解释LUCKY老大的分析。两个红色箭头的是底背离，两个红色圈圈的是顶背离。翻过来就是SP的趋势！这个地方要密切观察，如果是假金叉，那么SP会有新高的，感觉有点像图上看是切过去的。但是如果真金叉了，那么SP就开始下行了！

luckystar2006

jukifox 发表于 2016-3-16 09:21 AM
其实要是结合MACD就能更好的解释LUCKY老大的分析。两个红色箭头的是底背离，两个红色圈圈的是顶背离。翻过来 ...

The problem with timing entry point by using VIX- default MACD setup is that it often acts as a lagging indicator which makes it not that reliable to use.  This chart is one of those charts in my chart book that I often check, but I won't use it as timing signals, period.

jukifox

luckystar2006 发表于 2016-3-16 09:38 AM
The problem with timing entry point by using VIX- default MACD setup is that it often acts as a la ...

是的，MACD， KDJ有滞后的问题，只能做为趋势来判断。这就需要更灵敏的指标来抄底，或者逃顶。或者看更小的周期，例如5分钟。下跌的时候5分钟的顶背离，都会引起更长时间周期的死叉然后再次背离，继续下跌。还有一横盘震荡KDJ和MACD就不太好用了！老大能推荐点更灵敏的指标吗？比如你说的那种timing signal,

luckystar2006

jukifox 发表于 2016-3-16 09:49 AM
是的，MACD， KDJ有滞后的问题，只能做为趋势来判断。这就需要更灵敏的指标来抄底，或者逃顶。或者看更 ...

How to find a treasure trove:

1) You've to figure out what kind of traders you belong to (i.e.  scalp/day/swing/short-term trader)

2) Manipulating those common indicators as much as you could to find a good setup in your style that works over and over again so you can bet on.  Remember that there isn't any holy grail indicator to bet on.

3) If you're as greedy as I'm (which is how you will become a millionaire trader someday), then you've to work much harder to find a good setup for each day/swing/short-term.  This is how you become confident to trade in any time-frame.

4) Last one is very important which is market direction.  If you are a day/swing trader, you must know where short-term direction is.  For example, if you are 99% sure that there is a higher high ahead during next few days, your swing trade today (even if you are trapped right now) will become profitable soon.  

----------------------------------

Those are my sincerely advice which very few want to share.  Once you achieve that level, you'll become confident enough to make big bets with options trading, which is how you make >6-figure income annually (I don't know how tax system works in US.  Here in Canada, I use TFSA account to trade which means I don't have to pay any tax at all.  So, all of profits are mine to take.)

P.S.  Someday you will totally agree with what I said when I get to my level.  That is the secret of successful trading.  The bottom line is don't focus on finding a holy grail indicator because you won't find any.

jukifox

luckystar2006 发表于 2016-3-16 10:39 AM
How to find a treasure trove:

1) You've to figure out what kind of traders you belong to (i.e.  ...

谢谢你的这些建议。TFSA账户，你居然能上500个PUT。。。。太牛了。。。。。

luckystar2006

jukifox 发表于 2016-3-16 11:01 AM
谢谢你的这些建议。TFSA账户，你居然能上500个PUT。。。。太牛了。。。。。

If I tell you that I had only ~$40k in my TFSA account to begin with and I made >$400k within a year.  Do you believe it?  Tell you another thing.  I also put ~$40k under my gf's TFSA account which I trade both accounts at the same time.  So...................

jukifox

luckystar2006 发表于 2016-3-16 11:17 AM
If I tell you that I had only ~$40k in my TFSA account to begin with and I made >$400k within a ye ...

这个我相信。。。如果去年8月到12月把握准确的话，20倍都有可能。

HappyMoney

非常非常感谢老大的无私教导，受益良多。老大是我的偶像啊！

luckystar2006

jukifox 发表于 2016-3-16 11:21 AM
这个我相信。。。

If you know that a) you have some good setups that you can keep betting money on over and over again, and b) you can afford to lose all of those money in that account by making bigger and bigger bets, then you can grow your account exponentially.  

At this moment, I'm getting chicken to make big bets (like >1000 calls/puts within 2-week expiration date) because my heart can't stand it anymore.  I'm not as greedy as I used to be anymore at this stage.

jukifox

luckystar2006 发表于 2016-3-16 11:30 AM
If you know that a) you have some good setups that you can keep betting money on over and over aga ...

TopTen

luckystar2006 发表于 2016-3-16 11:17 AM
If I tell you that I had only ~$40k in my TFSA account to begin with and I made >$400k within a ye ...

老大，要保持你女朋友的账户总是比你的小一点， 绝对不能超过

jukifox

其实我一直想看到的是1小时出现顶背离，这样就一定要有HIGHER HIGH。但是如果今天收阴，日线出了死叉，还会有HIGHER HIGH吗？很少见过日线顶背离的！

jukifox

黄金瞬间涨了30块