SPX 2016-02-19

austinjoe

High level 中枢 above SPX 2000 as shown in the Jan 09, 2015 chart:

Day zone 1993.2 [2041.9, 2082.9] 2104.3. Purple box on chart.

30F zone  1993.2 [2003.9, 2068.5] 2082.9, green box on the chart.

Using 同级别分解, SPX made a 5F down via 9 1F 走势 ( 15 --> 24), then it's a 5F up via 5 1F 走势 ( 24--> 29), followed by another  5 1F 走势 ( 29--> 34) on a 5F down to 2016 low 1810.1 on Feb 11th. The last oversold bounce -- 1F up move ended at 1830.7 by Friday 3rd sell on 1F zone, Bear could not follow through after 3rd sell.  SPX swing around new 5F zone via  中枢扩张 [1916, 1919].

24 --  33 formed a 30F zone 1812 [1873, 1917] 1947, this is the biggest constrain for both Bull / Bear to break out.

The closest 1F zone is [1913, 1915], 5F zone is [1916, 1919]. Watch 3rd Buy / Sell on these 2 zones to pick the Bull/Bear side to join the ride.

Late Feb 17 + Feb 18 formed 5F zone via 中枢扩张 is [1922, 1927.35]. For Bull it must break up this zone to keep up move going, while bear needs to reject Bull hard on this line.

源济

谢谢分享，周末愉快！

捷思

源济 发表于 2016-2-20 05:57 AM
谢谢分享，周末愉快！

多谢！

smin33

谢谢分享！

austinjoe

Feb 22, 2016 -- Bull made a 3rd buy on SPX 1939.6 to mark the Friday low SPX 1902.3 as 36 (this ends 1F down move from SPX 1930). SPX formed a new 1F zone [1939.6, 1945.8] today.

Now watch how Bull work hard to void the following, -- minimum requirement is to make a 3rd buy above 1945.8 to keep 1F uptrend move. If 1F 3rd sell show up under 1939, a new 1F down move will start and it could be the start of new 5F down move as well on condition that this new 1f down move break down 1902.3.

1> 1F 趋势背驰. SPX must hit 1974 by 11:00EST Tuesday.
2> 5F 盘整背驰. SPX must hit 1977 by 15:00EST Tuesday.
3> 30F盘整背驰, SPX must hit 2022 by 14:00EST Wednesday.

HappyMoney

austinjoe

Feb 23, 2016 -- Bull could not deliver. SPX gap down and the fist 1F bounce up stopped at 1929.43 which is a 3rd sell for yesterday 1F zone. This also marks yesterday HOD 1946.7 as 37 -- SPX is 1 zone 1F up from 36 => 37.  

Now SPX is on 1F down move, the track is 1946.7 => 1922.3 => 1929.4 => 1922.9 => 1928 => last 1F 线段 not finished yet ( if SPX gap up above 1926.7 then LOD 1919.4 is the end of 1F 线段, if gap down under 1919.4 then last 1F down 线段 keep going).

The new 1F zone today is [1922.9, 1928], considering the 5F zone [1916, 1919]:

Bear needs to decisively break down 1916 and make a 3rd Sell for both 1F and 5F zone to keep down move momentum. Min requirement is SPX hit 1904 by 12:00EST to void the 1F盘整背驰 -- better if break 1900 to confirm that the sell rip mode is on.

While Bull must NOT dip under 1919 and rise up above 1928 for a 3rd buy on 1F zone to keep the OS bounce from 1811 alive.

austinjoe

Feb-24-2016.  What a roller coaster day. SPX gap down and sink directly to 1891 first, then Bull counter attack back rise to 1932, just 2 1F 线段 without a new 1F zone formed today, no 3rd Buy / Sell neither. Yesterday 1F zone [1922.9, 1928] and previous 5F zone [1916, 1919] is key to watch. Bull has the ball as SPX close 1929.8 above both zone.

Mind the Day zone 1993.2 [2041.9, 2082.9] 2104.3 formed Nov/Dec last year via 中枢扩张, SPX could get a 3rd Sell on Day zone under 1993 once this 5F up move from 1811 ending get confirmed.

austinjoe

Feb 25, 2016 -- Bull made a 3rd buy on SPX 1930.3 to mark the yesterday low SPX 1891 as 38 (this ends 1F down move from SPX 1946.7). SPX formed a new 1F zone [1927.4, 1934.4] today and it also made the 3rd buy on SPX 1940.x 1 hour before closing, so this 1F up move could end any time.

Now watch how Bull work hard to void the following 3 level 盘整背驰, if it could not deliver, Bear will start down move.

1.a> 1F 盘整背驰. SPX must hit 1979 by 11:30EST Tomorrow Feb 26th assume no 2nd 1F zone formed.
1.b> 1F 趋势背驰. IF SPX could make 2nd 1F zone around 194x area tomorrow, then watch for 1F 趋势背驰 and combine with 2> listed bellow.

2> 5F 盘整背驰. SPX must hit 2012 by 10:00EST next Monday Feb 29th ==> to be verified.

3> 30F盘整背驰, SPX must hit 1991 by 13:00EST Wednesday Feb 24th  ==> Failed already.

Noted that SPX formed a megaphone if connected Feb 17 SPX 1931.x and Feb 22 SPX 1946.x as up slant and Feb 17 SPX 1908.x, Feb 19 SPX 1902.x, Feb 24 SPX 1891 as lower slant. IF break down, the down move will be very violent per megaphone top.

austinjoe

SPX made 2nd 1F zone [1952, 1962]. The key battle seems on next Monday due to G20 in Shanghai. Task for Bull to finish to void 3 level 趋势/盘整背驰:

1> 1F 趋势背驰. SPX must rise 32 points within 3.5 hours from local low under 1962 should SPX try another push up ==> not enough time day, to be verified next Monday.

2> 5F 盘整背驰. SPX must hit 2012 by 10:00EST next Monday Feb 29th ==> to be verified.

3> 30F盘整背驰, SPX must hit 1991 by 13:00EST Wednesday Feb 24th  ==> Failed already.

Should both 1> and 2> fail next week, market will initiate a new 5F down move. Considering the top Day zone 1993.2 [2041.9, 2082.9] 2104.3, the end of rise from 1811 is 3rd sell on Day zone (the up from Jan 20, 2016 is made by 3 5F走势, hence a 30F走势), and we could expect a 30F down 走势 which has minimum 3 5F走势 ( down / up / down ) . Bear break 1800 is high chance this time.