SPX 2016-01-29

austinjoe

High level 中枢 above SPX 2000 as shown in the chart of -- SPX 2016-01-09 post:

Day zone 1993.2 [2041.9, 2082.9] 2104.3. Purple box on chart.

30F zone  1993.2 [2003.9, 2068.5] 2082.9, green box on the chart.

Using 同级别分解, SPX has made 9 1F 走势 ( 15 --> 24) complete the drop from 2015-12-29 SPX 2081 to 2016-01-20 1812. It starts oversold bounce, the last 1F 走势 28--29 has not finished.

The closest 5F zone  1873 [1876, 1909] 1917, 1F zone 1880 [1891, 1894] 1899. BULL need to make 3rd buy on this 1F zone and 5F zone next week to continue the up move.

9 1F 走势 ( 18 --> 27) could build a 30F zone 1812 [1879, 1917] 1950. This 30F zone will put a big burden for BULL to escape. Considering the 30F 中枢 via 中枢扩张 from 2016-01-16 post 1879.2 [1913.4, 1947.7] 1961.0. 1948/1950 would be strong resist for next Monday, it's also 50% fib retrace for 15 --> 24 drop.

For BULL to void the 30F 盘整背驰, SPX needs to hit 2000 by end of next Tuesday; to void the 5F 盘整背驰, SXP needs to hit 1980 by 14:00 EST Monday.

There is no 盘整背驰 for the closest 1F zone due to last hour short squeeze, pay attention on 1F 趋势背驰 once 2nd 1F zone formed early next week, mind the 5F / 30F  盘整背驰 listed above.

novice_trader

georgeyn

时时是好时

austinjoe

Correction.  Friday 10:20--11:40am EST  SPX drop from 1918 to 1912 is the 3rd buy on 1F zone. BULL has met this requirement. The 3rd buy on 5F zone is what BULL needs to make next Mon/Tues.

austinjoe

2016-02-01:  SPX made 2nd 1F zone [1925.65, 1935.9] and new bounce high 1947.4, close @ 1939.38 above 1F zone.

Tuesday watch for 1F 趋势背驰 + 5F / 30F 盘整背驰 switching from Bull to Bear. If Bull could make 1 3rd buy on 1F zone, SPX needs to rise minimum 22 points within 160 min to void 1F 趋势背驰. Otherwise it's Bear attack time.

捷思

austinjoe

2016-02-02:  Bear is strong today and SPX HOD 1918.3 @ 11:35am EST not even touch LOD of yesterday and made the 3rd sell for last 1F zone [1925.65, 1935.9].  Considering the 5F / 30F 盘整背驰, the 5F up move due to oversold bounce from 1811 could be done. SPX now starts 5F down move from 1947.4, there are 4 1F线段,  1947.4 -> 1908.9 -> 1918.3 -> 1896.4 -> close 1903. The 4th 1F线段 has not ended yet AND no 1F zone formed yet.

Wed, if Bear could reject SPX < 1908, then it could keep down move momentum. Otherwise 1F zone would form around 1909 area for Bull to fight a possible 3rd buy. Bear needs to hit 1870 before it grows to 5F level to claim victory over Bull.

austinjoe

2016-02-04;  The 5F down move from Monday HOD SPX 1947.4 route in 1F线段: 1947.4 -> 1908.9 -> 1918.3 -> 1896.4 -> 1916.0 -> 1872.5 -> 1898.7 -> 1881.15 -> 1918.85 -> 1900.35 -> 1927.65 -> 1903.6 -> 1920.35 -> 1904.15 -> Thur close 1915.45 (last one not ended yet).  

SPX 1898.7 is 3rd sell for 1F zone formed by 1908.9 -> 1918.3 -> 1896.4 -> 1916.0, so 1947.4 ==> 1872.5 could be take as 1st 1F down, now it's 1F up from 1872.5, the 1F zone is made by either 1918.85 -> 1900.35 -> 1927.65 -> 1903.6 OR 1927.65 -> 1903.6 -> 1920.35 -> 1904.15.

For Bull to win, 1918 could not be take by Bear. For Bear to score, it needs to break down 1900 -- 1904 area decisively and not let retrace back to touch it.