SPX 2016-01-16

austinjoe

High level 中枢 above SPX 2000 as last week chart -- SPX 2016-01-09 post:

Day zone 1993.2 [2041.9, 2082.9] 2104.3. Purple box on chart.

30F zone  1993.2 [2003.9, 2068.5] 2082.9, green box on the chart.

Using 同级别分解, SPX has made another 4 1F 走势, 18 / 19 / 20 / 21, the 4th one drop from 21 SPX 1934.8 has not finished yet, but it does have a new 1F 中枢 1868.6 [1873.0, 1881.5] 1889.5, SPX swing around this 1F 中枢, 1981.5 -> 1857.5 -> 1876.5 -> 1867.0 -> close @ 1880.2 and the 4th 1F线段 has not ended yet.

中枢扩张:

5F zone there are 2 options:

1> Late 01-08-2015 till middle of 01-12-2015 ==> new 5F 中枢 1901 [1913.4, 1926.5] 1947.7 as updated 01-12-2016.

2> From 01-07-2016 low 1938.70 till 01-11-2016 noon 1926.5 ==> new 5F 中枢 1913.4 [1933.20, 1936.7] 1961.0, the good point using this 5F zone is that there are 6 1F 走势 swing around this 5F 中枢 which would form a new 30F 中枢 1879.2 [1913.4, 1947.7] 1961.0 on todays chart. The drop from 12-29-2015 SPX 2080 to 1940 is one 中枢 5F走势, then the drop from 01-14-2016 (blue 21 point) SPX 1934.8 requires BEAR to hit under 1794.8 before it grow to 5F level, right now it's only 1 中枢 1F走势 and wait the 3rd buy/sell on 1F zone [1873.0, 1881.5].

For BULL, it needs to make a 3rd buy on 1F zone [1873.0, 1881.5] first to make Friday low 1857.5 as blue 22, to start 1F up 走势. It needs to make HH and HL on following 1F 走势 to keep bounce up alive. The resist above is 1901 and 1913/1914 to surpass. The most challenge task is to work against 5F 盘整背驰 as the 1F down 走势 from 17-18 is 3 中枢 1F 趋势背驰, made 120 points drop on SPX, which is the main cause on SPX Wed drop and Friday drop. Because this 5F 盘整背驰 keep working, as long as SPX 1F up 走势 shows 1F 盘整背驰, SPX will drop big.

For BEAR, it needs to make 3rd sell on 1F zone [1873.0, 1881.5] to keep 1F down trend. It also needs to work against the 5F 盘整背驰 on SPX 120 points drop from 17-18, it has to drop bellow 1934.8 - 120 = 1814.8 by end of next Thursday; plus it has to against 30F 盘整背驰 on 1879.2 [1913.4, 1947.7] 1961.0 as well, it needs drop bellow 1794.8 by end of 01-25-2016 once it grow to 5F 走势.

novice_trader

源济

风行过

捷思

austinjoe

01-19-2016:  Bull lost a golden chance to fire up today, SPX gap up 1903.2 (the HOD) and the first retreat did generate the 3rd buy on last Friday 1F zone [1873.0, 1881.5]. But it drifted lower slowly by pairs of LH / LL until 70 min before market close, a 25 points bounce up is good except that the 10 points drop in last 10 min is a bad sign to bull again.

The 9 1F线段 from last Friday low 1857.5 could build a 5F zone via 中枢扩张 1857.5 [1881.2, 1889.4] 1903.2, the drop from 1934.8 to 1857.5 is 1 中枢  1F走势, BEAR needs to hit 1889.4 - 77 = 1812.4 on 1F level by 13:00 PM EST to void this 5F 中枢扩张 盘整背驰.

Another view is 1857.5 => 1903.2 take as 1F走势 ( 3 1F 线段 without 1F中枢), the drop is count from 1903.2 - 77 = 1826.2 tomorrow noon est.

ES is @ 1844 now, cash SPX would be 1852 under last Friday low. The last 1F 中枢 [1881.2, 1888.2]. Resist for SPX tomorrow is 1857.5, 1864.2, 1867.0 and 1881.2 is the 3rd sell mark line.

austinjoe

01-20-2016: BEAR showed strength in the 1st half of the day while 2nd half is BULL show. SPX gap down and keep heading south until 1825.2 to bounce up to 1837 to generate the 3rd sell for last 1F 中枢 [1881.2, 1888.2]. It hits 1811.70 @ 12:28 PM EST. Then 1F线段 类背驰 + 1F 线段内背驰 triggered SPX bounce up -- it turns out a massive 65 points short squeeze to 1876.2 then retreat back to 1859.3 close. The last 1F线段 is not ended yet depends tomorrow opening.

1837.0 is check line for BULL tomorrow, if retreat stop above it, it's 3rd buy on 1F zone and bounce up will continue. For BEAR, it needs to drop bellow 1825 and not re-test it try 1800 major support line again.

austinjoe

As show on chart -- Green box is 30F 中枢; Red box is 5F 中枢; Yellow circle is 1F 中枢.

Following is the details of 1F走势 from SPX drop on 12/29/2015 -- @ 2081.56:

15-16 => 1F线段  down no 1F中枢  -- 92 points
16-17 => 1 中枢 1F up -- 32 points
17-18 => 3 中枢 1F down trend,  -- very powerful 120 SPX points drop
18-19 => 1 中枢 1F up --  51 points
19-20 => 1 中枢 down -- 71 points
20-21 => 1 中枢 up -- 54 points
21-22 => 1 中枢 down -- 77 points
22-23 => 1F线段  up no 1F中枢 -- 43 points
23-24 => 1 中枢 down -- 89 points

Deadcat bounce from SPX low 1812.29 (point 24) has formed 1F 中枢 1848.98 [1859.86, 1876.15] 1889.85,  BULL must reach SPX 1924 by 11:00AM EST to void 1F 盘整背驰.

A new 5F 中枢 1812.29 [1857.64, 1889.85] 1889.85 could form by 22/23/24/till today HOD 1889.85, to void this 5F zone 盘整背驰, BULL must reach SPX 1859 + 77 (point 21 - 22)  = 1936 by 12:00PM EST tomorrow.

Friday 12/22/2016: BULL face the same challenge as  the end of  1F 走势 18-19 and 20-21 -- 2 level 盘整背驰 ( 1F + 5F), as long as next SPX high tomorrow morning > 1889.85 shows 1F 线段内背驰 and SPX could not meets the above 2 test mark. This dead cat bounce from 1812 is domed and SPX will retest 1812 low on 1F 走势 .  IF SPX gap down, 1859.86 and 1848.98 will be the test mark for BEAR strength, SPX could not bounce up touch 1859.86 is the 3rd sell on 1F zone. If under 1848 and could not touch on retest, that would be strongest 走势 for BEAR.

For BEAR: there is 30F 中枢 1879.2 [1913.4, 1947.7] 1961.0 via 中枢扩张 from B to 21, from 15 --> B is 140 SPX points drop on 5F 走势, the drop from 21 has grow to  5F 走势 as of today, BEAR needs to send SPX down to 2134 - 140 = 1894 by end of next Monday to void the 30F中枢 盘整背驰. Otherwise BULL will fire up again.

austinjoe

01-22-2016 14:20 PM EST update -- BEAR seems too weak and wasted the 2 level 盘整背驰 ( 1F + 5F) chance here. SPX drop from 1907 to 1891, only 17 points, then on retrace back SPX made new HOD 1909. Next 1F 线段 if bellow 1907 and above 1890, it would be 3rd buy on new 5F 中枢 1812.29 [1857.64, 1889.85] 1889.85 as previous post states, AND BULL keep this bounce up alive to make it 2 1F 中枢 uptrend -- since it passed 23 points, we could drop the "deadcat" name here.