小学生的 ES 作业 (1/14/2016)

HappyMoney

Today's low is SPX 1878. August low 1867, Oct low 1871. Is today's low enough for a retest? My thinking is 40-60 chance for yes. Before today, the trading was easy on the short side. You can almost close your eyes and short every bounce. From now on, it will be tricky. We could see more of a back and forth type of trading. Yes, today's rally was very impressive. But it might be too early to assume bulls take back the control and we go straight up from here. The selloff in the last a few days was too severe, and a lot of damage was done. Traders with heavy long positions are deeply underwater. A lot of overhead supply will unload at higher price, not just bears to initiate a short position. So better strategy is to assume nothing, and prepare for both cases:
-        The low is in today at SPX 1878. (I see 40% chance)
-        A retest of the low and possible new low in coming days. (I see 60% chance)

For tomorrow ES trading:
•        Bias neutral.
•        Resistance 1927.5~1925, above it could head to 1940~1943.
•        Pivot level 1913~1914
•        Support 1892, 1971



补充内容 (2016-1-14 07:05 PM):
My best guess is ES might in a big range before the end of next week, with a possibility of retesting today low. Even if a new low, it won't be too far. The strategy is to buy dips and sell rips.

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