SPX 20151204

austinjoe

Bear broke the 1 day up and down alternatively pattern this Thursday, and looks to have the chance to escape the 5F zone [2080.45, 2094.30] that holds the market in the past 2 weeks. However Bull fought really hard to bounce up back to the 5F zone again with the rumor that ECB potential expanding their QE purchase in the future.

The top has a 30F zone 2062.50 [2090.00, 2109.15] 2116.70, will be the strong resist area. Next is the 5F zone 2070.35 [2080.45, 2094.30] 2097.35. Bull tried Friday via touching 2094.50 and backed off. The nearby 1F zone is 2067.2 [2076.90, 2077.90] 2085.5 from drop of 2104 and 2085.2 [2088.2, 2090.2] 2094.5 from rise of 2041.9.

To get 2015 Santa Rally, Bull needs to break up 2094.30 (5F zone top edge), 2104.30 (this drop start point), 2109.15 ( 30F zone top edge), 2116.70 ( last swing high from 1871 low). Min requirement is that SPX has to rise to 2108 within 1st hour of next Monday to void the rising wedge drop down, plus it has to break only 1 day up pattern since Nov 16.

Seasonality 2nd week of Dec is not Bull friendly. Also Friday SPX near 2% up was not backed up by solid market breadth, which is bad.  Cobra has a good post on this -- 12/04/2015 我猜下周一。。。  

novice_trader

RespectRisk

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georgeyn

xyy

lilitulip

捷思