Friday: ISM Manufacturing, Auto Sales, Construction Spending

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Friday: ISM Manufacturing, Auto Sales, Construction Spending

by Bill McBride on 4/30/2015 09:00:00 PM

Fannie Mae reported today that the Single-Family Serious Delinquency rate declined in March to 1.78% from 1.83% in February. The serious delinquency rate is down from 2.19% in March 2014, and this is the lowest level since September 2008.

The Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 5.59%.

Earlier Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate was declined in March to 1.73%. Freddie's rate is down from 2.20% in March 2014, and is at the lowest level since December 2008. Freddie's serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 4.20%.

Note: These are mortgage loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure".

image: http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-io7jrN ... 0/FannieFeb2015.PNG
Fannie Freddie Seriously Delinquent RateClick on graph for larger image

The Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate has fallen 0.41 percentage points over the last year - the pace of improvement has slowed - and at that pace the serious delinquency rate will be close to 1% in late 2016.

The "normal" serious delinquency rate is under 1%, so maybe serious delinquencies will be close to normal at the end of 2016.  This elevated delinquency rate is mostly related to older loans - the lenders are still working through the backlog, especially in judicial foreclosure states like Florida.

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