Wall Street Week Ahead:

oldpigwang

http://kelo.com/news/articles/20 ... -a-correction-make/
Friday, July 18, 2014 8:13 p.m. CDT
By Rodrigo Campos，Bespoke Investment Group in Harrison, New York.

One volatile day does not a correction make。
Still, the bears may have to wait a while to call the start of a correction.


Friday's rebound, however, suggests that the market's attention to Ukraine and Gaza will be limited
unless a wider conflict erupts, with investors instead keeping their focus on earnings。


Investors looking for the market to keep rising should also temper expectations.
Bespoke looked at 22 past instances when the VIX jumped by 30 percent or more and found that
one week after such a move, the S&P 500 is up, on average, about 0.77 percent.
The weekly gains tend to be even more muted in the instances when a 30 percent gain comes
when the VIX itself is below 20 - just a 0.51 percent rise.
That makes Friday's rebound significant - a 1 percent rise after a 1.2 percent drop suggests investors
have almost completely shrugged off the news. To some, that's a worry about the market's current mindset.

"I guess my explanation would be the (Federal Reserve) has created a bubble," said Michael O’Rourke,
chief market strategist at JonesTrading in Greenwich, Connecticut.

oldpigwang

牛梦，熊梦，统统无梦。

oldpigwang

都没有续笔。

葡萄柚

可能会猪上很久

oldpigwang

葡萄柚 发表于 2014-7-20 10:21 AM
可能会猪上很久

还有一种希望，大起大落，让牛牛和熊熊都
心碎， 爪碎，
却going nowhere.

oldpigwang

葡萄柚

对， 我就这个意思， 结果猪， 过程不猪。  不过 Rut 估计过程结果都不会猪的。  和SPX　比起来，　可能会是天上（　ｓｐｘ）　一日，　地下（　ｒｕｔ）　一年, 沧海桑田。

oldwolf

可能会是天上（　ｓｐｘ）　一日，　地下（　ｒｕｔ）　一年,
这是什么意思？

oldpigwang

oldwolf 发表于 2014-7-20 12:00 PM
可能会是天上（　ｓｐｘ）　一日，　地下（　ｒｕｔ）　一年,
这是什么意思？

Co ask

葡萄柚

就是 SPX 哪里都没去， Rut 却已经去过很多地方的意思， 上天入地。  我瞎猜的

Jeff6998

葡萄柚 发表于 2014-7-20 01:11 PM
就是 SPX 哪里都没去， Rut 却已经去过很多地方的意思， 上天入地。  我瞎猜的

顶

oldwolf

葡萄柚 发表于 2014-7-20 01:11 PM
就是 SPX 哪里都没去， Rut 却已经去过很多地方的意思， 上天入地。  我瞎猜的

你的rut天和地都在哪？

葡萄柚

那我就不知道了，只知道 spx 猪着的时候， Rut 肯定有　trend

oldwolf

看看rut Top 10 Performers 1 Mo Return % Ticker
多数都是bio，如果听椰奶的， rut就得接着跌，如果不听， 继续涨下去，就只有等崩盘了。

Idenix Pharmaceuticals Inc 284.4 IDIX
Achillion Pharmaceuticals Inc 179.3 ACHN
KARYOPHARM THERAPEUTICS 77.3 KPTI
Bluebird Bio Inc 66.8 BLUE
AERIE PHARMACEUTICALS 58.1 AERI
Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc 57.2 VNDA
Geron Corp 54.3 GERN
OpenTable Inc 52.9 OPEN
INSMED INC 52.1 INSM
Omeros Corp 48.8 OMER

oldwolf

rut Average Market Cap ($-WTD) 1.793

rut Largest Stock by Market Cap 4.510bilion，比一般认为的2 bullion 高

oldwolf

rut 减去负的p/e 已经23.1了， 远大于sp500
P/E Ex-Neg Earnings 23.1

oldwolf

rut 8% cap of sp500

oldwolf

so even if rut makes 10% move, sp500 only needs to move 0.78% move to compensate it.
i.e. sp500 no almost no movement while rut is like to go down hell already.

恒一