12/30/2013 Live Update

Cobra

opening statement. $ES_F
http://bbs.cobrasmarketview.com/ ... mp;p=150961#p150961

Cobra

Weekly stock picks are here: http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2013/12272013-weekly-stock-picks/

oldpigwang

Cobra

members only update starts here: http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2013/12302013-intra-day-update/

源济

华尔街早餐：周一美股盘前必读

　　日经全年涨57%，自1972年来表现最好一年。日经指数周一上涨0.7%。该指数今年上涨了57%，为1972年飙升92%以来表现最好的一年。日本股市受益于央行大规模印钞，这帮助日元走软、提振出口。目前美元兑日元为1美元对105.3日元。

　　中国地方债务近3万亿美元。截至6月末，中国地方政府债务高达17.9万亿人民币，约2.95万亿美元，远高于2010年的10.7万亿人民币。由于央行为控制债务飙升，月初拒绝向金融系统注入流动性，曾一度导致短期货币市场利率飙升，目前该利率已经回落。

　　黑石集团2亿美元入股“洞洞鞋”生产商卡骆驰。华尔街日报援引卡骆驰财务长Jeff Lasher报道称，黑石集团将投资2亿美元，收购鞋业公司卡骆驰(Crocs) 的13%股份。Lasher并称，该公司执行长John McCarvel计划4月退休，并将卸任在董事会的席位。黑石还将获得新发行的可以转为普通股的优先股，现金股息率为6%。该私募股权公司还将任命两个董事。卡骆驰盘前涨6.1% 。

　　金价重挫导致金矿企业将不得不大幅减记。由于金价今年大幅下跌，导致矿企黄金储备价值缩水，并使部分金矿的开采不具盈利性，黄金矿企面临主要减记，储备规模也将缩减。年初时今年为每盎司1600美元，目前为1200美元。Barrick Gold (ABX)上次预计金价为每盎司1500美元，Newmont Mining (NEM)预计为1400美元，这些公司今年已经做出大规模减记。

　　摩根大通失去业务后开始聘用有家庭背景者。《纽约时报》报道，电子邮件显示，摩根大通高管开始聘用有家庭背景者，是因为在业务上输给竞争对手。小摩高管称：“今日德银抢走了我们的业务，因为他们今年夏天雇了董事长的女儿。”他们谈论的是2009年一项利润颇高的合同。摩根大通等数家银行正因在中国等地的招聘实践而面临调查。

　　欧洲央行德拉吉：没有进一步降息的迫切需要。欧洲央行行长德拉吉认为，没有进一步降低主要利率的“即刻需要”。德拉吉称，尽管欧元区危机没有结束，存在很多鼓舞人的迹象，这包括一些国家经济复苏、贸易不平衡状况减弱、预算赤字收窄。欧洲央行上月将利率降至0.25%的历史新低。

　　长期失业救济金福利到期，百万余美国人受影响。延期的失业救济福利于周六到期，影响到130万长期失业者，他们此前每周可以获得联邦政府300美元的救助。该项目2008年金融危机高峰期推出，国会预算办公室预计，延长项目的年费用为250亿美元。然而，IHS Global Insight预计，不延期该项目将使美国明年第一季度经济增长速度放缓0.2个百分点。

　　欧盟将禁止大银行从事自营交易。据《华尔街日报》援引德国《南德意志报》周六报道称，该报看到一份草案，欧盟委员会准备禁止大银行从事自营交易，将有29家大银行受此影响。报道称，该规定将在欧洲议会和各成员国批准后于2020年3月实施。(谷云)

源济

盘前: 房市数据在即美股期指基本持平

　　新浪财经讯 北京时间12月30日晚间消息，周一盘前美国股指期货基本持平。今年美股交易时间所剩不多，全年道指已50次、标普500指数已44次创造收盘新高。投资者等待房地产市场经济数据。

　　美东时间12月30日08:34(北京时间12月30日21:34)，道琼斯(16478.41, 0.00, 0.00%)工业平均指数期货上涨3.00点，报16,424.00点，涨幅为0.02%；纳斯达克[微博](4156.59, 0.00, 0.00%)100指数期货下跌2.50点，报3,567.75点，跌幅为0.07%；标准普尔500指数期货上涨0.25点，报1,837.25点，涨幅为0.01%。

　　道指最高收盘纪录为2013年12月26日的16,479.76点，盘中最高为12月27日的16,529.01点。

　　标普最高收盘纪录为2013年12月26日的1,842.02点，盘中最高为12月27日的1,844.89点。

　　经济数据面，美东时间周一上午10点，美国不动产交易商协会将公布11月份的房屋销售数据。接受MW调查的经济学家平均预期该数字将增长1%。

　　上周五美股小幅收跌，道指结束了此前连续6个交易日上涨的趋势。上周全周道指收高1.6%。标普500指数全周收高1.3%，今年至今已上涨29%。

　　预计本周美股交易量仍将清淡。

　　周一亚洲股市大体收高，日经225指数今年至今已经上涨57%，为1972年以来的最佳年度表现，日本股市今年表现明显优于其他亚洲市场。今年亚洲市场中表现最差的是上证综合指数，今年至今下跌了7.6%。

　　周一欧洲市场走低。

　　个股消息面，Crocs(CROX)股价大涨，此前该公司首席财务官杰夫-拉什尔(Jeff Lasher)在接受采访时表示，百仕通(Blackstone Group LP)将向该公司投资2亿美元。他同时表示公司首席执行官约翰-麦克卡维尔(John McCarvel)将在4月份退休。

　　苹果(560.09, 0.00, 0.00%)公司(AAPL)受到关注。根据该公司上周五向美国证监会提交的注册声明，这家公司对股东表示，将拒绝著名投资者卡尔-伊坎(Carl Icahn)提出的回购股票计划。

　　纽约商业交易所黄金期货价格下跌11美元，报每盎司1204美元。原油期货价格下跌56美分，报每桶99.76美元。(张俊)

Cobra

members only update at 9:48 am
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2013/12302013-intra-day-update/

Cobra

range, wait for range broken first. $SPY, $SPX, $ES_F
http://bbs.cobrasmarketview.com/ ... mp;p=150968#p150968

Cobra

members only update at 10:02 am
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2013/12302013-intra-day-update/

Cobra

target. range day, so target probably won't matter. $SPY, $SPX, $ES_F
http://bbs.cobrasmarketview.com/ ... mp;p=150973#p150973

mikeqc

bears are losing the battle seemingly. they have tried pushing down 3 times and made much damage.

mikeqc

Happy New Year

mikeqc

Joke of the day from Yahoo finance

Where in the world to invest in 2014
By Jeff Macke | Breakout – 2 hours 18 minutes ago

If you want to own stocks but the United States' slow growth economy, economic malaise and inept politicians scare you there are alternatives. In the attached clip David Garff of Accuvest runs through three of his favorite foreign markets U.S. investors can get long via ETFs for some foreign exposure. As an added bonus he throws in one country he's short.

First his long ideas:

1. Japan
The Nikkei 225 (^N225) may be up more than 50% but Darff thinks there's more to come for nimble investors. He thinks the fundamentals are still good, the valuations are OK at about 16x earning and the momentum is undeniable.

2. China
Where the Nikkei is a tranquil uptrend, the iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI) is pure chaos. It's down about 5% over the last year with a more than 30% price range from bottom to top. Garff says the communists running the country are getting their act together in terms of controlling the massive Chinese economy. Not that anyone could tell for sure given the Chinese government's rather casual approach to financial accounting.

"You get numbers rather than data from China," concedes Garff. He does maintain that the Chinese at least get the direction of the economy correct, making apple to apple comparisons possible.

3. Russia
At this point Putin doesn't even pretend not to revel in American missteps. He's a strongman trying to restore the pride of a once strong nation. He's also fairly corrupt with a nasty habit of taking over Western investments as the opportunity moves him as nicely illustrated by the grotesquely drawn out battle the country is fighting with BP.

Garff says Russian shares (RSX) trade at Dictatorial Strongman discount, noting "you can buy the average Russian company for five times earnings or four and a half times forward earnings." Western companies can sell their stakes in Russian joint ventures either willingly or with a gun to their head.

The Short: Chile
Everything about Chile is bad. "We're short it in a long/short portfolio but avoiding it is just fine, too".

Cobra

pullback probably would be bought. $SPY, $SPX, $ES_F
http://bbs.cobrasmarketview.com/ ... mp;p=150975#p150975

Cobra

2nd test of day low, wait to see if bulls could make higher low. $SPY, $SPX, $ES_F
http://bbs.cobrasmarketview.com/ ... mp;p=150977#p150977

Cobra

failed higher low, now bias is a little down as it's been testing support many times. $SPY, $SPX, $ES_F
http://bbs.cobrasmarketview.com/ ... mp;p=150984#p150984

Cobra

the little down bias is clearer on the $ES_F chart as the blue line has been tested 3 times... $SPY, $SPX, $ES_F
http://bbs.cobrasmarketview.com/ ... mp;p=150985#p150985

Cobra

members only update at 12:46 pm
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2013/12302013-intra-day-update/

90ufo

CME & CBOT Equity Products
Tuesday, Dec 31   16:15 CT–Regular close
Wednesday, Jan 1 New Years Observed –Globex closed
Thursday, Jan 2 0500 CT–Modified open

Cobra

double bottom instead of breakdown. still in range, not direction. $SPY, $SPX, $ES_F
http://bbs.cobrasmarketview.com/ ... mp;p=150997#p150997