Markets too calm about debt ceiling,Treasury Secretary said

oldpigwang

By Hibah Yousuf  @CNNMoneyInvest  September 24, 2013: 7:25 PM ET
Treasury Secretary Jack Lew says Wall Street should be taking the looming debt limit more seriously.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney)

Treasury Secretary Jack Lew says Wall Street should take the looming debt limit more seriously.

While stocks have slipped for four consecutive days as investors turn their attention to Washington and the looming debt limit, the S&P 500 and Dow are just 2% from the all-time highs reached last week.


In addition to the muted market action, a key metric for measuring market fear and volatility, the VIX (VIX), is indicating calm markets. While CNNMoney's Fear & Greed Index has ticked just slightly into "Fear" mode, from neutral earlier in the week.

"I think if you look at the calm out there, it's a bit greater than it should be," Lew said at the Bloomberg Markets 50 Summit in New York Tuesday. He said investors may be traumatized from the last debt ceiling debacle. "The sense is that 2011 was a terrible experience and nobody would do that again."

Related: The never-ending charade of debt ceiling fights

In August 2011, the debt ceiling showdown and Washington's failure to develop a "credible" plan to tackle the nation's long-term debt problems led Standard & Poor's to downgrade the United States' credit rating. U.S. stocks tumbled that month, with the S&P 500 sliding nearly 6%.

Lew agreed that lawmakers shouldn't allow the debt ceiling brawl to get so ugly again, but warned that the clock is ticking and big decisions have yet to be made.

"People have to take seriously the fact that Congress has a lot of work to do in a short period of time," said Lew.

Lew has warned Congress that the Treasury will be at the end of its ability to use "extraordinary measures" to keep the country from defaulting on its payments by mid-October. After that, he said the Treasury will have less than $50 billion in cash on hand, and that won't last long.

"No Treasury secretary and no president have ever gotten to a point where we ran out of our ability to borrow," said Lew. "It is uncharted territory in the sense that people have thought about what they would do, but never crossed the line. And that's not a line we should cross." To top of page

dsp

WE all know that is a drama.

oldpigwang

dsp 发表于 2013-9-24 10:49 PM
WE all know that is a drama.

It is not a drama this time.

dsp

oldpigwang 发表于 2013-9-24 10:50 PM
It is not a drama this time.

狼来了的故事演了太久，这次可能真的来了，不过观众都不相信了。

全体fire掉他们。

oldpigwang

dsp 发表于 2013-9-24 10:54 PM
狼来了的故事演了太久，这次可能真的来了，不过观众都不相信了。

全体fire掉他们。

Mkt crash?

dsp

oldpigwang 发表于 2013-9-24 11:01 PM
Mkt crash?

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美国政府短暂关闭实际上将利好市场

 美国债务上限/美国政府    文 / 时芳胜   2013年09月25日 11:44    来源：华尔街见闻


现在，各大媒体关注的焦点是美国财政谈判。9月底，美国政府有关闭的风险。不久之后，美国债务上限谈判也有可能面临僵局。

BI的Joe Weisenthal认为，美国政府短暂关闭将会市场产生利好。他称，


虽然市场困难不喜欢看到美国政府关闭，但是短暂的关闭可能无碍大事，甚至有可能对市场产生利好。

这个观点的根据是，美国政府短暂关闭将削弱共和党，这可能令债券上限的谈判相对容易些。

共和党不会因政府关闭而遭受损失，他们会在政府关闭后立即做出些事情使“他们看起来很狼狈”。

BI称，因为美国政府若被迫关闭，共和党将很可能承担骂名，并在政治上失去势头，因此他们把债务上限当做真正的政治砝码，也将更加倾向于在债务上限问题上进行斗争：


8月份，美国众议院共和党人已经把斗争砝码从威胁关闭政府转移至债务上限讨论。

博纳也表示，债务上限斗争会很丑陋，共和党会坚持到底。

市场认为，如果共和党放弃威胁关闭政府，转至在债务上限方面进行斗争，那么奥巴马总统将被迫进行谈判。

BI称，正因为这个逻辑，美国共和党才对Ted Cruz感到愤怒。Cruz希望撤资“奥巴马医改”，这可令政府真正关闭，并使共和党陷入被动。

Weisenthal表示，关键是，美国债务上限方面的斗争对市场和美国经济有危害，但美国政府短暂关闭有可能会利好市场。然而，美国财长Jacob J. Lew警告称，投资者对于债务上限协议过于乐观。

oldpigwang

luckystar2006

It has always been a showcase with politicians at white house.  TA wise, many indicators point toward a big crash, but who dares to bet on it while Ben is having an upper hand on market.

oldpigwang

luckystar2006 发表于 2013-9-25 12:29 PM
It has always been a showcase with politicians at white house.  TA wise, many indicators point towar ...

Ben's already spent his bigest effect by no tapering.
他没有别的办法了。

mengtt