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First of all, I do not believe this market will crash right here.
This
market has turned into a political market. FA will still apply for long
term analysis. However, short term TA is pretty much malfunctioned. A
lot of the traders are pretty much freezed. There is only one thing
that will trigger this market to crash right now, ie., the public loses
100% confidence to the Fed and US government.
What
the Fed and US government had done the last couple of weeks has shown
the world that, they will do whatever under their power to save the US
financial system and save this market. And the central banks of the
world will support them, and they have no choice but to support the US
due to the severe consequences to their own economy and the
survivorship of their own financial systems.
Nobody,
I mean, NOBODY at this time, can afford to see the market crash right
here at this point. The debate has a lot of heat right now. However,
this is just a game for both parties trying to gain some points and
also taking this chance to trash the opponent. Eventually, they will
work out something. In general, the US public is relatively naive and
that's why the Dem is having an upper hand here. On the other hand, if
the Dem over plays their cards and blocks this bill, and thus cause a
severe market crash which will lead to immediate economic downfall, the
Republic and the US public will turn around to blame the Dem. The Dem
can't affort that to happen. None of the parties can afford the market
carsh at this election year.
The economic
situation and market situation is very different from 1987. The US is
in a much dire economic situation right now and there is nothing to
propell the economic recovery. The normal market mechanism simply
ceases to work now. Fortunately, in a short term basis, the US
government still has room to maneuver, to give hope to the market and
buy time for the market.
However, I do believe a
severe crash will happen in a year or two. It will be caused by the
economic situation and the total trash of hope. We are very well in the
process of witnessing one of the greater recessions of all time. For
all of us, instead of worrying about how to trade now, we better spend
sometime to think of how we should prepare ourselves to weather the
storm that will affect not only our wealth, but our families wellbeings. |
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狗仔卡
发表于 2008-9-26 10:13 AM
提升卡
置顶卡
沉默卡
喧嚣卡
变色卡
发表于 2008-9-26 10:23 AM
