巴菲特在中国害人不浅

redboy

巴菲特有他的天时地利人和，你学不像也学不了。给你根棒子，成不了孙悟空，反而容易被人当猴耍！

一直以来中国人投资必提巴菲特，什么股神、价值投资、长线持有，能一套一套的滔滔不绝，可谓是熟读巴菲特三百首，不懂股票也能喷！甚至小巴菲特来中国，都会引起财经媒体的围观，太奇葩了；小巴菲特自己也是一头雾水，要知道他可是个艺术家。

之所以这么崇拜巴老，是因为我们被洗了脑，一说就是40年翻了多少倍，买了几个公司一直拿着。前者叫做财富效应，后者叫做懒人效应，二者一结合，就变成了投资领域的邪教，不知坑害了多少大爷大妈！学巴菲特48元买中石油的，要是一直拿到现在，连内裤都输掉了吧？

投资是一个既简单又复杂的活儿，简单体现在别人那里，而复杂往往都让自己赶上了。就拿巴菲特来说，我们翻阅了他一辈子成功的记录，却很少有人知道他的爸爸是一个股票经纪人，最后还当了国会议员，在金融委员会工作，相当于中国的一行三会吧。所以巴菲特的成功之路，也是从拼爹开始，只是我们不能否认他日后的努力。

再有我们不能复制巴菲特的就是他的伯克希尔哈撒韦公司，一家纺织厂，买来后也亏损得肠子都悔青了，最后变成了一家保险公司，才翻了盘。这在中国是绝无可能的，要知道虽然前后有新旧36条，都承诺对金融开放，但血淋淋的事实告诉我们，做金融要远比贪污腐败、甚至杀人抢劫的罪过大得多！所以如果你也“幸运”地像巴菲特那样买到了一个濒临倒闭的纺织厂，那最后真得倒闭了。

再看巴菲特后面的投资，无论是可口可乐、美国运通、吉列、华盛顿邮报等等，无一不是用保险公司无尽的现金流在支撑的，说白了就是不怕跌，随着下跌可以无穷无尽地购买。而他在乎的是这些公司的股息分红率。就好比一只鸡20块钱，每月下十个蛋，我觉得很合适，用不了几年卖蛋的钱就把鸡钱赚回来了，没想到过几天鸡变成10块了，每月还是下十个蛋，这不就更合适？反正保险公司有的是钱。而在A股，股息率？鸡生蛋？开玩笑吧，我们的鸡基本都集体绝过育了。

所以，巴菲特有他的天时地利人和，你学不像也学不了。给你根棒子，成不了孙悟空，反而容易被人当猴耍！

Simpletrader

我们的鸡基本都集体绝过育了

NG_NM

”给你根棒子，成不了孙悟空，反而容易被人当猴耍！“

说得真形象。

ppli

"价值投资、长线持有" 还是对的。

真正要靠股票赚大钱还是要靠 “长线持有", 1000000000% 正确！

snowrider

小牛

非常有道理

landlord

  

start123

acoust

tcm328pan

ppli 发表于 2013-8-12 09:49 AM
"价值投资、长线持有" 还是对的。

真正要靠股票赚大钱还是要靠 “长线持有", 1000000000% 正确！

Only certain precondition is satisfied, that is right!!!

福多多

转基因鸡。。。

jamesmith

Yes No one can replicate Buffett, but that doesn't mean his investment style doesn't work anymore.
Those who got confused is only because they didn't really spend the hard work and try to figure out How Buffett did it (usually they are the majority, if investing is easy, everyone are billionairs...)
who said Buffett only does buy and hold forever? Read his earlier shareholder letters, they can be found at Value Investing Club in Hutong.
Also, one of the most admirable thing about Buffett and Munger is that they never stop learning. Always be willing to break your own rules! If you go look at his investments through 50 years of time, he keeps evolving and learning.

As for investment in PTR (petro china), have you look at why he bought it then and why he sold it? It sounds like you didn't even do the homework.

wsjboy

jamesmith 发表于 2013-8-12 04:03 PM
Yes No one can replicate Buffett, but that doesn't mean his investment style doesn't work anymore.
...

Yes, I was waiting for your comments; I knew that it would come, and right on the point!

HTers does not need those garbage, we need pearls like yours!!!!

Huge thanks!

jamesmith

wsjboy 发表于 2013-8-12 03:36 PM
Yes, I was waiting for your comments; I knew that it would come, and right on the point!

HTers  ...

Thanks, I will try to write something this week about Buffett's investment on PTR. This is a very good case study because Buffett actually told us how much he think PTR's intrinsic value is in his letter.

sunflower

jamesmith 发表于 2013-8-12 04:34 PM
Thanks, I will try to write something this week about Buffett's investment on PTR. This is a very  ...

搬个小板凳，坐着等听课。

ctcld

没看懂标题。。。

一声叹息。

我是谁

ctcld 发表于 2013-8-12 06:36 PM
没看懂标题。。。

一声叹息。

赫赫

landlord

没看懂标题。。。

一声叹息。

  

wsjboy

ctcld 发表于 2013-8-12 06:36 PM
没看懂标题。。。

一声叹息。

我知道您的意思， 其实我不但看懂了标题，而且还认真·思考了这个标题。 但是我还是同意 jamesmith 的评论。而且我也不认为他连这个标题都看不懂，period·！

因为别人和您或者楼主意见不同，就贬低别人智商，我不认为这是一种很合适的讨论方式。。。

wsjboy

还有一帮人帮闲响应， 一声叹息