POT 暴跌，可进吗？

bucks

如题，有懂这个行业的同学吗？FA说两句，据说是因为potash的价格可继续下跌

棋王

转贴一个给你参考，，，

Potash stocks are down big after Uralkali breaks apart from potash cartel Belarus Potash Co
Potash stocks got slammed this morning after Russian potash producer Uralkali said that it was breaking off from the potash cartel Belarus Potash Co. Trading in Uralkali was suspended on the Moscow Exchange after its stock dropped by more than 20%.

This is big news for the potash industry. The hardest hit fertilizer stocks include IPI -31.9%, MOS -23.3%, POT -22.9%. International potash stocks, in addition to Uralkali, include Germany's K+S and ICL-Israel Chemicals.

Global potash trade has largely been dominated by Canpotex and Belarusian Potash Company (BPC), which collectively control ~70% of global potash exports. These two are marketing groups that negotiate quarterly and annual contracts with the largest buyers in the world.

Canpotex is the offshore marketing company for Canadian potash producers Potash Corp, Agrium (AGU) and Mosaic.

Belarusian Potash Company (BPC) has been the marketing arm of Moscow-based Uralkali and Belaruskali of Belarus (aka, an export joint venture between Uralkali and Belarus-based Belaruskali). Uralkali owns 50% of BPC, Belaruskali own 45% and Belarusian Railways Association owns 5%.

Uralkali now says that it expects more competition and says that potash prices could fall 25% to $300/ton. And after breaking off of BPC, Uralkali will market its fertilizer through its subsidiary Uralkali Trading.

Again, Canpotex and Belarusian Potash Company (BPC) has been dominating the potash market and have been in control of about 70% of global potash exports. BPC controlled about 43% or the 70%. Now, Canpotex takes the place of the world's largest potash supplier. Canpotex sells potash produced by its three owners, Potash (POT), Mosaic (MOS) and Agrium (AGU).

bucks

棋王 发表于 2013-7-30 08:14 AM
转贴一个给你参考，，，

Potash stocks are down big after Uralkali breaks apart from potash cartel  ...

thanks. may seek a chance to buy it

棋王

bucks 发表于 2013-7-30 09:21 AM
thanks. may seek a chance to buy it

dt 吧，有时候寻底可能是个漫长的过程，，尤其是在基本面发生变化的暴跌后，，

bucks

棋王 发表于 2013-7-30 08:24 AM
dt 吧，有时候寻底可能是个漫长的过程，，尤其是在基本面发生变化的暴跌后，，

开盘时29.2已买了点，打算长期放着。贴张图。potash is the primary product of POT, but not the only one. So I think POT is probably the solidest company in this industry. After all, people need to eat, and crops need fertilizer.

The share loading upon such a steep plunge can never be justified TA-wise. So it's a bet and aimed for long-term investment. The next loading will wait till a  TA signal.  

多谢棋王

oldfox

bucks

oldfox 发表于 2013-7-30 08:46 AM

老狐狸，啥意思？别这么惜字如金，说两句？

乐水鸣佩环

看清楚了大形势再入手不迟，小心风险

oldfox

bucks 发表于 2013-7-30 09:48 AM
老狐狸，啥意思？别这么惜字如金，说两句？

棋MM 说的很对, 暴跌的股一时半会儿很难上去, 只能作短线 !!!

vlo

这种消息真是害死人。手上有股的大清早起来发现大亏20%，冤不冤呀。

bucks

vlo 发表于 2013-7-30 09:10 AM
这种消息真是害死人。手上有股的大清早起来发现大亏20%，冤不冤呀。

不过POT前期的TA形态很熊，本来就不该持有。暴跌后，出了 RANGE，可能是机会，也可能继续下行寻底

安全套儿

历史POT最高点60左右，现在正好在50% 的线上，会有一定支撑。同意琪琪的说法，短线为王吧。我入了点货，30块，同时write weekly call.

rightonmoney

棋王 发表于 2013-7-30 09:14 AM
转贴一个给你参考，，，

Potash stocks are down big after Uralkali breaks apart from potash cartel  ...

rightonmoney

bucks 发表于 2013-7-30 09:46 AM
开盘时29.2已买了点，打算长期放着。贴张图。potash is the primary product of POT, but not the only o ...

rightonmoney

棋王 发表于 2013-7-30 09:24 AM
dt 吧，有时候寻底可能是个漫长的过程，，尤其是在基本面发生变化的暴跌后，，

Ding!

Simpletrader

bucks 发表于 2013-7-30 09:46 AM
开盘时29.2已买了点，打算长期放着。贴张图。potash is the primary product of POT, but not the only o ...

Not just the fertilizer price, also market share.

bucks

Simpletrader 发表于 2013-7-30 10:07 AM
Not just the fertilizer price, also market share.

even so, I feel the market overreacted too much.

dsp

bucks 发表于 2013-7-30 12:52 PM
even so, I feel the market overreacted too much.

Market is always right. :)

amberlight

报。。。。。江湖传说有大资金持续买入。。。

bucks

amberlight 发表于 2013-7-30 01:53 PM
报。。。。。江湖传说有大资金持续买入。。。

hoho, that was me.

It's a solid company in a fundamental business, and has been undergoing a correction. Such an unreasonable plunge upon a business decision is always a chance for investment loading. Those ppl in panic sold, while greedy hunters took.

Qiwang and other ppl are also right to stay away from a falling knife. So, sold half position at 31.79, and plan to keep the rest for long long term investment, at least I have gained another 8% cushion to weather a big storm if it ever comes. Maybe I will load more at that time