金融风暴之三 改变游戏规则，新ＲＵＬＥ强力救市 (from茶香股谈 by DaFo)

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之二说LEH的倒让放大业务筹钱放大再难工作。跑尔森放任LEH倒掉，开启了链式反应。市场（包括我）给开出的有力措施是 依次是１）停止做空 ２）暂停M2M 3）政府作保证。４）关了市场。 序言说，三天只内就可能出政府措施消息，从而引起市场因空头COVER而引起的猛烈上涨。 今天第三天果真出来消息。请读后面的新闻。原文见 http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080918/financial_meltdown.html 后面消息说政府措施就是 1）不能空金融公司。这就极大的增加空头运作空死公司的难度。 2）政府作保证，收抛不掉的流动差的资产。解决公司因M2M的balance sheet问题。 第一条，和我想的一样。最容易做出。只出这一条我的策略是等高继续空。 第二条，实质是建议二三的综合。该救法如香港亚洲金融风暴，政府６０００点接手空头和恐慌者的所有抛单。一二年后，９０００点抛出，大赚，而且后来几年后涨到了２００００多点。这次政府的措施有效法香港之嫌　：） 原来我想的是这条没那么快的出。因涉及的是改ＲＵＬＥ，涉及的是政府参与市场。需要危机极端情况下，需要时间才能通过。既然现在很快就出了，我改变市场看法，认为这波涨，可能延续到大选，或是还有１０％的指数上涨空间。总之是可以做多。 现在回头继续反思跑儿森，给他无私的辩解是，若LEH不倒，没引起恐慌，不能变RULE。而且变ＲＵＬＥ争议也大。给他有私的解释是，ＬＥＨ的倒掉后果如系列２所说，他没有料到很快MS就也要倒掉，他没有料到ＧＳ放大业务也做不下去要有危险。所以，他才反常的积极的改rule救市。我觉得跑尔森也是人，是高官，上边从公和从私的理解都很合理。 当然，长期呢市场呢？　继续回到我近３个月的观察的出发点。就是房子要跌到明年６，７月。平均从最高点掉３０％。很多房子回到０１年的水平。而在ＬＥＨ倒掉后，我觉得可能要跌４０％就是回到９３年的时评。市场上的预测从３５％到４７％。若如此，那么多少银行都要陷入危机。 在改rule强力救市后，我觉得可能又回到以前的判断。这样，房子见底前，市场涨后，可能还要探昨天今天的底。 总之是，在金融危机时候，政府是挽救狂澜的最后希望。政府做法英明的话，改变游戏规则，则好。政府无能的话，经济社会损失就大。政府要是顶不住，那就风暴越演越烈，直到great depression。 累了，这片写的不够好。　 Possible financial crisis fix sends stocks soaring Thursday September 18, 11:22 pm ET By Patrick Rizzo, Jeannine Aversa and Martin Crutsinger, AP Business Writers Possible financial crisis fix sends Dow up more than 400; fast congressional action promised WASHINGTON (AP) -- The stock market finally found reason to rally Thursday, and Congress promised quick action as the Bush administration prepared a plan to rescue banks from the bad debt at the heart of the worst crisis on Wall Street since the Great Depression. ADVERTISEMENT Details of the plan were still being worked out, but Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson emerged from a nighttime meeting on Capitol Hill to say he hoped to have a solution "aimed right at the heart of this problem." As word of a government plan began to reach Wall Street earlier in the day, the Dow Jones industrial average jumped 410 points, its biggest percentage gain in nearly six years. The rebound also came after an infusion of billions of dollars by the Federal Reserve and world governments aimed at getting nervous banks to stop hoarding money and lend again. Stocks had fluctuated throughout the day, without severe swings in either direction, until CNBC reported the administration might back a new agency to take bad assets off the books of struggling financial institutions, much like it did in the aftermath of the savings and loan crisis of the 1980s. After the discussions Thursday night, Paulson said the goal was to come up with a "comprehensive approach that will require legislation" to deal with the bad debts, or illiquid assets, on bank's balance sheets. He did not provide any details, but the plan taking shape called for Congress to give the administration the power to buy distressed bank assets. Rep. Barney Frank, D-Mass., chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, said that probably would not mean creating a new government agency. "It will be the power -- it may not be a new entity. It will be the power to buy up illiquid assets," Frank said. "There is this concern that if you had to wait to set up an entity, it could take too long." Frank said his committee could begin drafting legislation as early as Wednesday. Paulson, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and other officials planned to work through the weekend on a solution. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said that once the administration had presented its proposal, "we hope to move very quickly" to come to an agreement. There was no immediate word how much the rescue plan might cost. The banks still standing are staggering under the weight of billions of dollars of bad loans and mortgage debt arising from the wave of home foreclosures in the United States, and lending has tightened around the world in response. Before the sun rose on Wall Street on Thursday, the Fed said it would boost by as much as $180 billion the amount of cash it would supply to foreign counterparts that are short on dollars. For banks in the United States, the Fed supplied $105 billion in short-term loans later in the day. But, at least initially, those efforts did little to unfreeze the global credit markets. Banks remained extremely reluctant to lend money. The No. 2 official at the International Monetary Fund, John Lipsky, said the past few days were "searing manifestations of a financial crisis that has expanded to historic proportions." He predicted the turbulence would continue for "some time to come." British financial regulators also banned short-selling the stock of financial companies listed on the London Stock Exchange. U.S. regulators tightened rules on short-selling Wednesday. Christopher Cox, chairman of the securities and Exchange Commission, told lawmakers the SEC may put in a temporary emergency ban on all short-selling -- not just the aggressive forms it already has targeted, according to a person familiar with the matter, speaking on condition of anonymity because no final decision had been made. The ban might apply to stocks of selected financial companies, to all financial companies or even possibly to all public companies. Short-selling, which has been practiced on Wall Street for decades, is not illegal per se. The Fed said it had authorized the expansion of swap lines, the process by which it supplies reserves to other central banks, to include amounts up to $110 billion for the European Central Bank and up to $27 billion for the Swiss National Bank. The Fed also said new swap facilities had been authorized with the Bank of Japan for as much as $60 billion, $40 billion for the Bank of England and $10 billion for the Bank of Canada. For more than a year, investors around the world have watched with growing alarm as the U.S. economy, the world's largest, has struggled to right itself amid massive home foreclosures, many of them from mortgages issued to homeowners with bad credit. The turmoil has swallowed some of the most storied names on Wall Street. Three of its five major investment banks -- Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers and Merrill Lynch -- have either gone out of business or been driven into the arms of another bank. The Dow's gain of nearly 4 percent on Thursday sent the average back above 11,000 and nearly erased its losses from a day before. But as the uncertainty wore on, investors continued to flock to Treasury securities, considered a haven in times of crisis, and the price of gold rose yet again. And worries about even the safest investments intensified as Putnam Investments abruptly closed a $15 billion money market fund because institutional investors had pulled their cash. Bush canceled out-of-town fundraising trips to Alabama and Florida to stay in Washington and huddle with Paulson and the heads of the Fed and the Securities and Exchange Commission. In an appearance earlier in the day, the president acknowledged "serious challenges" in the markets and said: "The American people can be sure we will continue to act to strengthen and stabilize our financial markets and improve investor confidence." The credit troubles reverberated around the globe. Asian stocks closed lower. European stocks rose but struggled to hold on to the gains. Russia closed its stock exchanges for a second day, and President Dmitry Medvedev pledged a $20 billion injection into financial markets. In the United States, investors worried for another day about the health of the banks still standing. Earlier in the week, venerable Lehman Brothers was forced into bankruptcy, and Merrill Lynch was driven into the arms of Bank of America. On Thursday, Morgan Stanley scrambled to strike a major deal or raise more cash that will reassure investors and prevent more damage to its battered stock. Its CEO, John Mack, reached out to China's Citic Group overnight about a possible investment, according to a person familiar with the talks. Morgan Stanley is also considering a combination with retail bank Wachovia Corp. and an investment from Singapore Investment Corp., one of the world's biggest sovereign wealth funds, said the person, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because the discussions were still ongoing. On Capitol Hill, lawmakers in both parties became increasingly vocal about their concerns with the Bush administration's handling of the current crisis. Administration officials refused to attend a closed-door briefing with House Republicans this morning, leaving their congressional allies in the dark about the government's $85 billion emergency loan to insurer American International Group, House GOP leader John A. Boehner said. And Sen. Chris Dodd, D-Conn., the Banking Committee chairman, was irritated that Paulson twice canceled appearances he was to have made before the panel this week. Associated Press writers Catrina Stewart in Moscow, Matt Moore in Frankfurt, Ellen Simon in New York and Chris Rugaber, Deb Riechmann, Julie Hirschfeld Davis, Andrew Taylor and Marcy Gordon in Washington contributed to this report.